Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams has a 16/1 NAP at Hereford

• Travelled strongly for a long way last time
• Overly generous 6lb drop
• Rhys Williams thinks Urabamba is overpriced at Hereford

Shaped better than result last time

Hereford 16:15: Urabamba 1pt win 16/1

Urabamba has yet to finish any closer than seventeen lengths behind the winner in four starts for Kayley Woollacott but he's shaped better than that suggests and could run well at a big price this afternoon.

He was in stronger company in his first two starts and struggled accordingly but showed a bit more at Wincanton two starts ago when still in touch approaching 2 out before dropping away on ground that would have been softer than ideal for him.

He was stepped up in trip to 2m3f on his final start of last season at Taunton and travelled notably well for a long way. He still hadn't been asked for his effort racing in third turning out of the back straight but found little once pushed along and faded to finish fifth.

The manner in which Urabamba travelled that day suggests that he still retains ability and the 6lb drop for that run looks overly generous.

The drop back to a sharp 2m should suit and if the rain stays away, the ground will also suit as he doesn't want much cut.

It might be that he's just a very weak finisher and will travel well again before dropping away or that he's vulnerable to younger improvers but I think the market has overlooked his chance a little and any 14/1 or bigger appeals.