Horse Racing Tips

Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 25/1 Sky to light up Ludlow

Ludlow
Our racing expert has two selections on Wednesday

Our resident tipster has analysed Wednesday's racing and has two selections at big prices at Punchestown and Ludlow...

  • Contested stronger race last time

  • Drop back in trip to suit

  • Light In The Sky is overpriced at Ludlow


Showed good level of ability on the flat

Punchestown 13:05: Enge Hazard 0.5pt win 66/1

Back Enge Hazard in the 13:05 at Punchestown 0.5pt win

66/1

Enge Hazard makes his Irish and hurdling debut in this opening maiden hurdle and I think that he's only run in Sweden and Norway has led to him being underestimated by the market.

He made a slow start to his career before improving in the second half of his three-year-old season. He finished fifth in the Norwegian Derby, finishing just ahead of Lot Of Joy who has since had success for Willie Mullins. Enge Hazard was a bit disappointing next time in the Norwegian St Leger before bouncing back to form on his final two runs of the yard in Sweden with a victory and a narrow defeat.

Maria Lamm took over the training of Kahlil De Burca's horses the following year and Enge Hazard made a winning start for her, just getting the better of Double Rock after a long battle up the home straight in a handicap where Enge Hazard was conceding over two stone to all bar one of his rivals. He ran in a much stronger handicap on his final start in Sweden when finishing last of five.

I think he ran to a mark of around 80 in those races and he now makes his first start for Andrew McNamara. There is the unknown over how Enge Hazard will take to hurdling but if he's able to transfer the ability he's shown on the flat to hurdling then I think he can be more competitive than the market suggests and any 33/1 or bigger appeals.

Drop back in trip to suit

Ludlow 15:10: Light In The Sky 1pt win 25/1

Back Light In The Sky in the 15:10 at Ludlow 1pt win

25/1

Light In The Sky is the outsider of the field but I think he has a better chance than his price suggests now that he drops back in trip.

After winning on his final start for Paul Nicholls, he was off the track for 505 days before having his first start for Chris Down at Worcester. He raced keenly in front before dropping away quickly in the home straight and was pulled up on ground that was softer than ideal for him.

He was well beaten on the flat on his next start but showed more promise on his latest start at Taunton over 2m3f. Wearing a hood for the first time, he raced handily and was still in fourth turning out of the back straight before gradually fading out of contention to finish sixth.

The first and third from that race finishing first and second in a race over the same C&D yesterday while the runner up was carrying a 7lb penalty for a wide-margin success.

Light In The Sky has been dropped 5lb for that run and the step back in trip to 2m can bring improvement from him, with the potential for a good pace for him to track to suit.

It might be that he's just a weak finisher and will continue on the decline but I think this is the first chance he's had for this yard to show his true ability and any 16/1 or bigger appeals.

Recommended bets

RHYS’ PROFIT/LOSS 2023

Staked: 38.50pts

Returned: 36.03pts

P/L: -2.47pts

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