Horse Racing Tips

Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies Rebel to stage a revival at Wincanton

  • Rhys Williams
  • Published on
  • Updated on
  • 2.00 min read
Wincanton
Our racing expert has one selection on Wednesday

Our resident tipster has analysed Wednesday's racing and has a sole selection at Wincanton.

  • Return to hurdles to suit

  • Overly generous handicapping

  • Rebel Intentions is overpriced at Wincanton


Can bounce back on return to hurdling

Wincanton 16:15: Rebel Intentions 1pt win 7/1

Back Rebel Intentions in the 16:15 at Wincanton 1pt win

7/1

Rebel Intentions has been pulled up on his last two starts but both of those were over fences and now that he's back hurdling, I think he could bounce back to a better level of form this afternoon.

He showed some promise in three novice hurdles last season at Taunton and Newbury and he didn't shape too badly on handicap debut on his first start of this season at Worcester.

He was held up and raced on the inside with Tom Bellamy trying to find some better ground in the very testing conditions. Rebel Intentions was still in touch and travelling well on the final bend but couldn't pick up in the ground and faded to finish sixth.

His jumping lacked fluency on chasing debut at Lingfield but he managed to stay in touch until dropping away quickly on the long run to 3 out and was pulled up. However, his latest run was far less encouraging as he was never travelling or jumping and was pulled up after a circuit.

Given that his jumping was clearly an issue in those two starts over fences, I think it was overly generous of the handicapper to drop his hurdles mark in line with his chase rating.

As a result of that, he's now off an 11lb lower mark than when making his handicap debut at Worcester and now faces a far more suitable test back over hurdles.

Lavelle also had an issue with sickness in the yard around the time of Rebel Intentions' last two runs and her horses are now in better form so there could be improvement to come as a result of that too.

There is a slight concern that Rebel Intentions' jumping of hurdles might be impacted by the negative experience over fences but in a race of this quality I think he's overpriced given the potential for a revival and any 6/1 or bigger appeals.

Recommended bets

RHYS’ PROFIT/LOSS 2023

Staked: 43.50pts

Returned: 47.83pts

P/L: +4.33pts

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