Rhys Williams has analysed Wednesday's racing and has a sole selection at Worcester...
Wind op and drop in trip to bring a revival
Worcester 16:29: Abaya Du Mathan 1pt win 12/1
Abaya Du Mathan has been pulled up in two of his last three starts but those races were over 3m½f+ and now that he drops back in trip and has had a wind op, I think he could bounce back this afternoon.
Prior to those three runs, he had put together three good runs over distances around 2m4f, winning comfortably on the second of them off 102. He followed that with a good run in defeat off 112 at Chepstow when poor jumping at the final three fences didn't help his chance and he weakened tamely on the run-in.
He ran well for a long way over 3m1f at Aintree two starts ago when clear with Go On Chez at 2 out before having little left late on and it was a fairly similar story at Southwell last time when he led leaving the back straight before stopping to nothing early in the home straight.
It may have been a combination of the distance and a wind issue that caused him to finish so weakly on those two occasions so hopefully the wind op and step back in trip will have a positive effect today. He's also dropping into a class five for the first time since winning easily at Ffos Las.
There is a concern that there are plenty of front runners or prominent racers in this race and getting into a battle for the lead wouldn't help his chance but he showed at Chepstow that he can track when necessary and that may be the best plan today. Given his potential to bounce back and have a class edge on his rivals I think he's overpriced and any 9/1 or bigger appeals.