Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies Kentucky to come home in front at Pontefract

More positive tactics down in trip would suit

Pontefract 16:15: Kentucky Rose 1pt win 9/1

Kentucky Rose is the lowest rated of the five runners in this classified stakes but I think she can run well back down in trip at a track where she ran well two starts ago.

That day she was a bit slowly away and then short of room soon after the start which resulted in her dropping back to last. She looked a bit ring rusty on her first start of the season as she was shaken along and was still in last entering the home straight before finishing strongly to take third. The winner has won again since off an 8lb higher mark while the second has since won by four lengths off a 2lb lower mark.

Kentucky Rose was stepped up to seven furlongs at Haydock last time but I'm not sure that suited. After starting fairly well, she was heavily restrained to get cover and then shaken along to get a position on the inside rail. She kept battling away in the closing stages but could never put in a challenge and finished eighth.

She was ridden much handier as a two-year-old and I'm hoping they revert back to those tactics today in a race where there doesn't seem to be a huge amount of early pace. As she's drawn widest in stall five, that is likely to result in her getting a better position than if they try to drop in and get cover in this small field.

There is a concern that she might just be tricky as she had to be driven along early two starts ago and it's possible some headgear might be required in time but I think the market has overreacted to her latest run and any 8/1 or bigger appeals.