Horse Racing Tips

Boxing Day Racing Tips: A magnificent seven selections from Rhys Williams

  • Rhys Williams
  • Published on
  • Updated on
  • 3.30 min read
Kempton
Our racing expert has seven selections on Boxing Day

Rhys Williams has analysed the Boxing Day action and has seven selections across five meetings.

  • Can improve for switch to right-handed track

  • Return to this trip likely to suit

  • Rhys Williams thinks West Cork is overpriced at Kempton


Switch to left-handed track to suit

Wetherby 11:52: Micronormous 1pt win 15/4

Queens Rock is the odds-on favourite in the opening mares' novices' hurdle at Wetherby on the back of a comfortable success on hurdling debut at Southwell but I'm not convinced she should be as far clear of Micronormous in the market.

Micronormous showed promise on her debut in an Irish point and made a successful rules debut for David Pipe in a bumper at Exeter when finding plenty under pressure and showing a willing attitude to hold off the challenge of Big Fish.

While very little could be seen of her hurdling debut at Wincanton, what could be seen was her jumping to her left and markedly so at the last two hurdles. She ran to a good level at Wincanton despite doing that and clearly has the potential to improve now switching to a left-handed track.

It might be that Queens Rock is too classy for her but I wasn't convinced by her finishing effort at Ffos Las and she might be vulnerable if Micronormous can get her into a battle. Any 100/30 or bigger appeals.

Potential improver now going hurdling

Limerick 12:25: Paradise Lost 1pt win 16/1

Those that have run over hurdles in the opening juvenile hurdle at Limerick don't set a particularly high standard and I'm hoping that a hurdling debutant can be more competitive than the market suggests.

All three of Paradise Lost's starts on the flat were at the Curragh and he showed a bit of ability. His inexperience showed on debut when slowly away and keen early on before making a bit of late headway to finish eighth behind Cougar.

He was poorly drawn next time over the same distance and lacked the necessary speed to get competitive while plugging on late.

He again lacked the pace to get involved on his third start slightly down in trip on his third start but showed that he handled testing ground, staying on well to finish fourth.

Paradise Lost physically looks the type to take to hurdling and he should appreciate the greater test of stamina. His half brother, Fort Denison, was moderate on the flat and initially showed more over hurdles and I'm hopeful that Paradise Lost can do likewise today. Any 14/1 or bigger appeals.

Tongue tie back on

Wetherby 13:00: Santos Blue 1pt win 12/1

Santos Blue is making his handicap debut and I think he has the potential to build on what he's shown so far over hurdles now that a tongue tie is going back on.

He wore a tongue tie in three of his four starts in points and in a point to point bumper at Aintree when he travelled strongly and looked the likely winner before not finding much late on.

He made a promising hurdling debut at Hereford when shaping better than the finishing position suggests behind Parramount. Having raced in midfield, he made headway on the run to 2 out and jumped that in a share of second before not finding much and fading into seventh.

Santos Blue travelled well for a long way again on his next start at Uttoxeter and he was never competitive last time at Sandown when dropped back to 2m.

He didn't wear a tongue tie on any of those starts and I'm hoping the reapplication of one this afternoon will result in a stronger finishing effort from him as the way he travels suggests he has more ability than his rating of 101.

It may be that he needs a wind op and will only show his true ability after having one but I think he's overpriced given the potential for improvement and any 10/1 or bigger appeals.

Good point win when last seen

Down Royal 13:58: Blustery 1pt win 8/1

Blustery has generally shown very little under rules apart from when being first past the post at Limerick before being disqualified for a banned substance. However, when last seen she showed a level of ability in a maiden point that suggests she has more ability than her rating of 88.

That run came after a break of 299 days and she had cheekpieces on. In a fairly well run race, she tracked the leader before easing to the front turning the final bend and gradually went further clear from that point on the bridle despite making a mistake at the last. That performance was comfortably of a better standard than the winners of the other two divisions of the race, Dangan Des Champs and Dame De Fortune. The former is now rated 88 over fences while the latter is rated 107 over hurdles in Britain.

Blustery's jumping is a concern as she tends to go to her left and doesn't always get too high and there is a chance that she might be one of those horses that doesn't repeat their point form under rules but she has the potential to have plenty in hand off her mark of 88 if repeating the level she showed at Tralee and any 6/1 or bigger appeals.

Cheekpieces reapplied for handicap debut

Down Royal 13:58: Definetly Darsi 1pt win 50/1

Definitely Darsi has shown little in three starts under rules but he has the potential for better today now that the cheekpieces are reapplied.

He wore them when finishing second to Loughhill at Loughanmore after returning from a 342-day break when he was a bit unlucky having been tightened up approaching 2 out and lost his place before rallying well under pressure. He followed that with a victory at Loughbrickland when getting the battle with Henry Africa from 2 out.

His form in his next two starts wasn't so good but the manner in which he stopped quickly at Farmacaffley suggested he had a problem so there could be an excuse for that.

Definitely Darsi hasn't shown much under rules but he did at least stay in touch with good quality opposition at Galway on his rules debut before being left behind on the run to 2 out.

He's another whose jumping is a concern and it might be that he's just not as good as he was but I think he's overpriced given the potential for a revival now the headgear is back on and any 25/1 or bigger appeals.

Can bounce back for reapplication of visor

Market Rasen 14:50: Innisfree Lad 1pt e/w 50/1

Innisfree Lad is the outsider of the whole field in the Lincolnshire National but I wouldn't be surprised if he runs better than his big price suggests now that a visor is back on.

He wore cheekpieces when last seen at Haydock and wasn't travelling from a long way out before being pulled up.

Last season he won comfortably with a visor on for the first time at Plumpton off a 1lb lower mark than he races off today and two starts later he finished third in the Eider off a 7lb higher mark than he races off today.

His form dipped in his final two runs of the season but he was always poorly positioned when stuck wide in the Scottish National and he might have had enough for the season at Huntingdon.

Innisfree Lad does have a generally inconsistent profile so he might just run another shocker but his run two starts ago at Carlisle when he finished a close second suggests he still retains enough ability to be competitive in a race of this quality and there seems to have been a big overreaction to one poor run. Any 25/1 or bigger appeals.

Switch to right-handed track to suit

Kempton 15:05: West Cork 1pt e/w 11/2

A notable part of West Cork's two starts over fences so far has been his tendency to jump out to his right to varying degrees so now that he's switching to a right-handed track, I'm hopeful of seeing a better round of jumping and improvement from him.

On his chasing debut at 2m4f at Warwick, he went sharply out to his right at the first two fences and continued to go out to his right at nearly every obstacle in the race. He closed up to be about a length behind Stage Star at 2 out and was still around that far behind at the last but a mistake followed as he went out to the right after that and was soon left behind by the winner.

He lacked the pace to go with Jonbon and Monmiral over 2m at the same track last time and was never competitive but did make a bit of late progress despite going sharply out to the right at 2 out.

There is always a concern that such a significant tendency will be repeated even a horse is going the 'right' way round but I'm hopeful that West Cork won't lose as much ground at the fences today as has been the case on both chase starts so far. He should also be suited by a likely good pace with quite a few of his rivals liking to lead or race very prominently and that could set the race up for him to close late. Any 9/2 or bigger appeals.

Recommended bets

RHYS’ PROFIT/LOSS 2022

Staked: 333.50pts

Returned: 498.52pts

P/L: +165.02pts

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