Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies Carroll's Ace at Wolverhampton

Easy to excuse latest run

Wolverhampton 18:35: Ace Of Harts 1pt win 14/1

This is a weak novice race and I think Ace Of Harts has the potential to be competitive if building on the promise he showed on debut at Haydock.

That race was over seven furlongs and he was slowly away and shaken along at the back of the field. He was still travelling well in a share of second last with three furlongs to go but couldn't get a clear run with a wall of horses in front of him. He finally had a clear path just over a furlong out and he looked a bit green under pressure but ran on to finish fourth.

He finished last next time at Ffos Las but shaped better than that suggests and that was on heavy ground which didn't suit. He went clear in a leading group of four early on and was close up three furlongs out but he floundered in the ground and had nothing left 1½ furlongs out, dropping away to finish last.

I think the artificial surface today will be far more suitable for Ace Of Harts and the ability he showed on debut suggests he could run well in a race of this quality. The step up in trip also shouldn't be an issue and he should be able to get a good position early from stall three.

There is a concern that he might race too keenly or that this race will come soon enough just two weeks after finishing very tired at Ffos Las. There has been some early market support for him but I think the initial price was a big overreaction to his second run and he still looks overpriced. Any 12/1 or bigger appeals.

Return to artificial surface to suit

Chelmsford 20:05: Arab Cinder 1pt win 11/1

Arab Cinder was a 14,000gns purchase out of Roger Varian's yard at the July Sale and I think she has a chance to provide an instant return on that investment as she returns to an artificial surface this evening.

She made her debut over a mile at Kempton and shaped with some promise, staying on well on the far side to finish fourth, and followed that with another good run at Wolverhampton on her final start as a two-year-old.

She was well beaten on her turf and three-year-old debut at Pontefract but bounced back on handicap debut at Wolverhampton. She was dropped out in a detached last from her wide draw and she was still in second last two furlongs out. Her run was blocked on a couple of occasions in the home straight as she ran on late to finish fifth.

Arab Cinder was never competitive at Goodwood last time and was dropped 2lb for that run. I think the return to an artificial surface and a longer trip can see her in a better light and she's likely to have a good pace to close into.

There is the unknown of exactly what impact the trainer switch will have but in a race where most look exposed, I think she has some potential upside and any 10/1 or bigger appeals.