Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies Cap to break his duck over fences at Hereford

• Likely strong pace to suit

• Return to softer ground can help

• Rhys Williams thinks Cap Du Mathan is overpriced at Hereford

Likely to have favourable tactical scenario

Hereford 15:15: Cap Du Mathan 1pt win 4/1

Cap Du Mathan improved markedly from his chasing debut when finishing second at Wincanton last time and I think he can take another step forward this afternoon in a race that is likely to be run to suit him.

He raced far too keenly on chasing debut at Chepstow and finished tailed off but he settled better when second at Wincanton last time when able to track Stormin Crossgales. Cap Du Mathan tracked that rival from the off before moving up to make a challenge at 4 out.

However, he was slower than his rival over that fence and was pushed along on landing. He joined the leader again at 3 out but couldn't quite match him late on, with a lunge to his right at the last fence not helping his cause.

Cap Du Mathan also wasn't helped that day by Stormin Crossgales not being pressed for the lead so the pace wasn't as strong as it ideally would have been for him. That is unlikely to be an issue today with Llandinabo Lad, Mr Grey Sky and Presuming Ed all likely to want the lead early on and that could result in Cap Du Mathan getting a strong pace to sit off and settle before closing late.

I also think the softer ground today will be more in his favour than the ground at Wincanton and that may result in him jumping more fluently too.

His jumping is a bit of a concern as it wasn't great when put under pressure in the closing stages at Wincanton but I think he has the ability to run very well off this mark and any 7/2 or bigger appeals.

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