Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies a Twiston-Davies chaser at Worcester

Far more encouraging run at Fakenham

Worcester 14:05: Topofthecotswolds 1pt win 11/4

Topofthecotswolds hasn't won over fences since September 2019 but I think he has a very good chance to end that drought this afternoon.

He ran well on a few occasions over fences last season off marks in the 130s before two poor runs at Ludlow and Taunton resulted in him being dropped 7lb.

After 103 days off the track, he returned at Fakenham last month and showed far more. After tracking the leaders for the first circuit, he went to the front at the eighth fence. He was still travelling strongly turning down the back straight for the final time while his two nearest rivals were driven along and had dropped one of those two approaching 3 out when Topofthecotswolds got in too close and fell.

As he came down at 3 out his rating couldn't be changed. Given the way he was travelling at that stage I expect he would have at worst gone very close to winning and likely been given at least a 5lb rise so he looks to have a strong chance off a mark of 122 in a race that's likely to be run to suit.

I think he's best when chasing a strong pace and the presence of Via Dolorosa and Vision Des Flos should ensure at least a good pace.

It is a bit concerning that he had a heavy fall but he's had a month off since and he had jumped well up to that point so I'm hopeful that won't have a negative impact on his jumping today.

Although he is favourite I think there should be more between him and his rivals in the market and any 5/2 or bigger appeals.