Horse Racing Tips

Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 40/1 to spring a surprise at Exeter

Exeter
Our racing expert has one selection on Tuesday

Rhys Williams has analysed Tuesday's racing and has a sole selection at a big price at Exeter.

  • First time headgear could bring improvement
  • Jockey's 7lb claim generous against fellow amateurs
  • Rhys Williams thinks Rainbow Storm is overpriced at Exeter

Could bounce back for headgear and jockey

Exeter 13:45: Rainbow Storm 1pt win 40/1

The jockey can often be an important factor in amateur riders races. While the focus is often on the more experienced jockeys who usually aren't claiming, it's those who are claiming and are better than that claim suggests who gain my attention in such races.

Lewis Saunders looked far more accomplished than the average novice rider in points last season and I think a 7lb claim in amateur riders race is very generous given his talent. He's riding Rainbow Storm who is a huge price on his return from nearly a year off the track but I think could fare better than the market suggests.

He showed some ability on his debut in a Fontwell bumper in September 2020 and ran ok on his first two starts over hurdles before things took a downward turn on his next three starts.

However, I thought he showed more promise when last seen in a hands and heels handicap hurdle at Taunton when dropped back in trip to 2m3f. Having initially set off in second, he appeared to lose focus at the two hurdles in the home straight on the first circuit and dropped back into last. He was pushed along to take third turning the final bend and was eight lengths behind the leading pair when he made a bad mistake at 2 out, almost lost his jockey and lost any chance.

While he wouldn't have challenged the leading pair without that mistake, that was a more encouraging effort from Rainbow Storm and I think the handicapper may have been a bit hasty in dropping him 7lb. Given he looked to completely switch off going out on to the final circuit at Plumpton prior to that and he again lacked concentration at Taunton, I think the application of cheekpieces for the first time today could help his cause.

The positive jockey booking has already been covered and this race is likely to be run at a good pace which I think will help him as this trip might be a minimum for him.

It may be that Rainbow Storm will need the run coming back off such an absence or that his jumping will once again be an issue as he also tends to edge to his left at hurdles but I think his price is too big to ignore given the potential for better today and any 25/1 or bigger appeals.

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