Showed ability in France
Musselburgh 13:50: Cease And Desist 1pt win 33/1
Neither of the front pair in the market for this seller are particularly reliable and while he does come with risks attached, there's a horse who could be a danger to them if able to repeat the level of ability that he showed when last seen.
Cease And Desist makes his first start for Liam Bailey having been bought for 5,000gns at the Tattersalls July Sale. He showed a bit of ability on debut for Andre Fabre over a mile at Saint Cloud when green before running on late and built on that next time at Longchamp when stepped up to 1m2f.
He was niggled along at various stages and pushed along entering the straight with 2½ furlongs to go. He could never really challenge the leaders but kept responding well to pressure to finish fifth. The winner finished fourth in a Listed race next time and is now rated the equivalent of 97 while the third and sixth now rated 88 and the fourth is rated 82.
The step up in trip is likely to suit and the ground will be no issue but it is a concern that he's running in a seller on his first start for his new yard having had a problem which resulted in him being a non runner on his intended final start in France and kept him off the track after.
However, given the ability that Cease And Desist has shown would put him up there with the front pair in the market I think the market is underestimating his chance despite the concerns and any 16/1 or bigger appeals.
May face less pressure for the lead early on
Wolverhampton 16:35: The First King 1pt win 20/1
There's not a lot of early speed in this race and I think that gives The First King a chance to run better than his big price suggests.
He ran fairly well in both starts over 1m2f in the Racing League when either contesting for the lead or racing handily in strongly-run races and he faces Fierospeed on 7lb better terms than when finishing half a length behind him two starts ago at Windsor.
The First King has run badly since but that was when stepped up to 1m4½f for the first time and he might have been in need of a short break given he was racing for the third time in 22 days.
He's now 4lb lower than when running at Lingfield and Windsor and I think the likely pace scenario of today's race will be more suitable for him than what he faced in both those starts as he could get to the lead without too much pressure.
If that does play out as expected, I think that gives him a better chance than his price suggests and any 14/1 or bigger appeals.
First time visor could bring improvement
Wolverhampton 16:35: Alpine Mistral 1pt win 25/1
Alpine Mistral is another horse at a big price in the same race who I think has a better chance than the market suggests with a visor going on for the first time today.
She was well held at Newmarket last time but she was never travelling that day so it's easy to excuse the performance and it was her first start in a class two handicap.
She's been dropped 3lb for that and if she can build on the more promising effort two starts ago at Sandown then I think she could be competitive. She raced handily from the off that day and turned into the home straight in a share of second. She was outpaced with 1½ furlongs to go before staying on to finish third.
That was a good run from Alpine Mistral considering the inadequate test of stamina and she will be better suited by today's trip. She also wears a visor for the first time and I'm hoping that will cause her to travel better in the first half of the race than she did at Newmarket.
It may be that she's just on the decline but I think a combination of that last defeat and her possibly being seen as just a soft ground horse has caused her to be overpriced in this race and any 16/1 or bigger appeals.