Horse Racing Tips: Katie Midwinter's best bets for Thursday include 40/1 Warwick tip

• Wind surgery should allow Just Gino to show improvement

• Step up in trip over obstacles will benefit Calli Black

• Tyger Bay holds strong each-way claims

• Road To Wembley should take all of the beating down in class

• Money Back as a free bet if your horse loses on the Betfair Exchange in the 17:00 Chelmsford

13:53 Warwick - Back Just Gino E/W @ 9/110.00

4

Just Gino (Fr)

• J: Brian Hughes
• T: Donald McCain
• F:

Just Gino was bought for £100,000 following a point-to-point win at Lisronagh, in which he beat Electric Jet by a length, with subsequent bumper winner Petit Secret, now trained by Willie Mullins, a faller at the second last.

He was sent off at odds of 9/43.25 when both favourite and joint-favourite, respectively, in two starts for Donald McCain, beaten nineteen-lengths on debut when keen early on, before being well beaten in his following start at Southwell, after a break.

Having had wind surgery since, and sporting a first-time hood on his return, Just Gino could show significant improvement from his efforts under Rules to date, capable of taking a big step forward. On the basis of his PTP form, he should be a useful type for a yard who have a 21 percent strike-rate in novice events this term.

At odds of 9/110.00, it could prove worth sticking with Just Gino for the foreseeable, as he has the potential to develop into a capable hurdler this season.

14:23 Warwick - Back Calli Black E/W @ 40/141.00

2

Calli Black (Ire)

• J: James Davies
• T: David Weston
• F:

David Weston-trained Calli Black is a well-related mare who should relish this challenge over obstacles following a season competing in bumpers.

The point-to-point winner was purchased for £85,000 after recording a four-length victory over Femme Magnifique, a subsequent bumper and maiden hurdle winner for Willie Mullins who finished fifth at 50/151.00 in a Grade Three Punchestown Festival mares bumper.

Under Rules so far she has been unable to land a blow on the winners, but has kept plugging on in her bumpers, indicating a step up in trip over obstacles should suit. Her dam, Lady Rhinestone, a bumper winner over an extended 2m1f for Nicky Hederson, is a sister to Present Gesture whose sole hurdling victory came over 2m5½f. They are related to Rhinestone Cowboy and Wichita Lineman, both of whom won Grade One races over two-and-a-half-miles or further.

There's plenty of stamina in the pedigree and it's plausible that the shorter trip of two-miles with the exception of hurdles wasn't to suit Calli Black. She should be suited by an easier surface, and has an interesting profile coming into her hurdling debut, capable of showing plenty of improvement from her previous campaign.

The trainer has an all-time 20 percent strike-rate at the track, with 50 percent of his runners here finishing among the first four, whilst jockey James Davies holds a reasonable record aboard the yards runners, too, which is another positive.

15:50 Salisbury - Back Tyger Bay E/W @ 33/134.00

7 (12)

Tyger Bay

• J: Darragh Keenan
• T: Conrad Allen
• F:

Likeable Tyger Bay can be competitive in this 6f handicap for Conrad Allen, in testing conditions that are likely to suit. He has won twice on softer ground this term, and has run well from a similar mark in the past, putting him in with a great each-way chance at the weights from a mark of 80.

Last seen finishing eighth in a competitive handicap at Kempton, when upped in class, he was sent off at odds of 66/167.00 that day, beaten by only three-and-a-quarter-lengths having been short of room. He was slowly away on that occasion, too, and had to make up plenty of ground, staying on strongly at the finish and catching the eye.

That was a performance filled with promise at a higher level, and he holds strong claims dropped back down in class. There is plenty in his favour here, and jockey Darragh Keenan has a good record aboard the yard's runners.

At odds of 33/134.00, he makes a lot of appeal.

16:50 Salisbury - Back Road To Wembley @ 4/15.00

2

Road To Wembley

• J: Jim Crowley
• T: Richard Hughes
• F:

Sir Alex Ferguson homebred Road To Wembley drops down in class following a recent Haydock outing, only 3lb higher than when recording a Racing League victory at Newcastle on his penultimate start when the 2/13.00 favourite.

He holds strong claims from his current mark of 80, attempting the 1m6f trip for the second time which should suit well in softer conditions. Having previously proven his stamina over further, with his most recent win coming over an extended two-miles, he should be able to put his staying talents to good use over this trip and stay on best of all in the finish.

Although he is yet to encounter softer conditions, there is enough evidence in his pedigree to suggest it could suit him, and his exaggerated knee action would indicate an easier surface is preferred.

His dam's brother, Querari, won a Capannelle Group One on heavy ground, whilst another of their brothers, Sharja Bridge, won the Balmoral Handicap in soft conditions for Roger Varian. The maternal grand-dam was a half-sister to soft ground Listed winner Quilanga too, and Road To Wembley's half-brother, dual Group Two winner Spirit Dancer, is proven on soft.

The Richard Hughes-trained gelding, who has Jim Crowley aboard for the first time, is still relatively unexposed over the staying trips and on Turf, having predominantly raced on an all-weather surface. He finished second to Warmonger, beaten a length-and-a-half when giving away 9lbs to a rival who is now rated 92, at Newbury in July, proving he isn't just an all-weather specialist. He can bounce back from his recent Haydock effort and return to form here, for an in-form yard.

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