''We Brits tend to belittle German form but the long and the short of it is that Alpinista beat Torquator Tasso at Hoppegarten and the runner-up went on to win the Arc.''
Patrick Weaver predicts a Newmarket one-two in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud...
The Group 1 roadshow moves on to Paris this afternoon with another middle-distance race, the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud at 15:00.
Nine go to post - four English, four French and Aidan O'Brien's High Definition.
The worthy favourite is Charlie Appleby's Hurricane Lane despite underperforming at Royal Ascot when odds-on for a Group 2 and only able to finish third to Broome and Mostahdaf.
No excuses were offered for that poor run; it is possible that he will never again be capable of running as well as last year.
Hurricane Lane won the Dante, Irish Derby, Grand Prix de Paris, and St Leger, as well as coming third in the Derby and the Arc in which Bubble Gift was eighth.
That campaign may have left its mark, and that is the risk you take backing him. He has much the best form in the race, though, and has finished ahead of High Definition 10.09/1 three times.
Freddie and Martyn Meade's Lone Eagle had looked like holding on in the Irish Derby. It was only in the last 20 yards that Hurricane Lane caught him. Had he not run as badly on his return at Goodwood, I would have considered putting him up each-way but Lone Eagle 12.011/1 ran a shocker behind Third Realm that day. On that run he would seem more likely to finish nearer last than first.
With Third Realm 13.012/1 yet to win a Group race, and behind Hurricane Lane in the Derby, Sir Mark Prescott's Alpinista 5.04/1 looks a better each-way option.
The grey daughter of Frankel won the Lancashire Oaks first time out last year, before going on to win three Group 1s in Germany.
We Brits tend to belittle German form but the long and the short of it is that Alpinista beat Torquator Tasso at Hoppegarten and the runner-up went on to win the Arc.
Collateralists will note that gives Alpinista a solid chance of beating Hurricane Lane.
Regulars will know how much I value Group 1 form, so I wasted little time putting a line through Andre Fabre's Baratti. 21.020/1 a son of Frankel whose Listed win at Longchamp in April was his best run yet.
Mare Australis 8.07/1, Sweet Lady 34.033/1 and Bubble Gift 21.020/1, in contrast, have won Group 2s in the last 12 months, so if a French runner is to make the first three that is where to look.
I think the market leaders should have it between them and suggest backing Hurricane Lane 1.834/5 for a win and Alpinista 5.04/1 each-way.
Sober appeals in the Prix Quinette
The undercard is dire to say the least. Unusually for a French Group 1 meeting, five of the 10 races are handicaps and there are no Group or Listed races bar the Grand Prix.
The four recent winners in the Prix Quinette at 13:33 should dominate the race.
Mia Boy stuck his neck out to win at Lyon Parilly. He won his maiden at Deauville last year but this is his first time in Paris.
Sober won over 100 metres shorter at Chantilly, a marked improvement on his previous efforts.
Melo Melo's maiden win at Compiegne looks better than Plectrophane's at Orleans despite the runner-up in the latter race, Aelle, returning to win at the next meeting.
Sober would be my pick of the quartet, if I were to have a bet.
The handicaps are typically competitive and Selwan and Point Of Fact look evenly matched in the Prix Dicta Drake at 17:20.
Selwan was getting 4lb from Point Of Fact when beating him six lengths at Nancy, today he has to give him 6lb. The winner was out of his depth in a Group 2 last time, but should go close on his handicap debut.
One that is very much on the rise, and might beat them both, is Woodstone. He wasn't much as a two-year-old and started the year in claimers down on the Med at Cagnes-sur-Mer.
He changed hands after finishing third and again after winning at which point he went to Stefan Richter. He has since won handicaps at Chantilly and Saint-Cloud, the latest by four lengths from Night Endeavor who last month won the €55,000 Languedoc Derby at Toulouse.
Woodstone has been put up 8lb but could still be ahead of the handicapper.