Melbourne Cup Tips: Lightning can strike twice for Twilight

Nick Shiambouros
01 November 2021
3:00 min read

Can Joseph lift the Cup again ?

Join

View market

Twitter

Facebook

View the Betslip

Nick Shiambouros is back with a preview of the Melbourne Cup at Flemington featuring Incentivise who is one of the shortest priced favourites in history...

"He had to jump through a lot of hoops to get to the Cup, but believe he will run a big race"

Back Twilight Payment in the 04:00 at Flemington @ 13.012/1

This historic race is run on the first Tuesday in November and has attracted another stellar field.

Twilight Payment to upset Incentivise

04:00 Flemington - Twilight Payment

This year the race revolves around Incentivise who is priced at a ridiculous 3.02/1 on the exchange.

This Peter Moody trained gelding has been in irresistible form this spring and won the Caufield Cup without turning a hair last month. He comes in to this race riding a nine race winning streak and is without doubt the clear form pick. There is no questioning his ability, but I can afford to let him win at that price. He is one of the shortest priced favourites in the history of the Cup, but you need a little luck in running to win a race of this nature.

For me I am going to side with last year's winner Twilight Payment. Trainer Joseph O'Brien has quickly developed in to a master at placing horses abroad. He won the Cox Plate with State Of Rest last month and won a race with him at Saratoga in the summer. He had the perfect prep race when finishing second to Sonnyboyliston in the Irish St Leger at the Curragh last month. He had to jump through a lot of hoops to get to the Cup, but believe he will run a big race. At present he is trading at 13.5 in the win market and 4.3100/30 for a place.

Others to consider are Tralee Rose who is the big improver and Grand Promenade who is a three time course winner.

The race will be run at 04:00 UK time Tuesday and I for one will be staying up late to watch.

Get a £5 Free Bet on Multiples - Every Day!

Place £20 worth of Multiples or Bet Builders over the course of a day, and, after the bets have settled, you'll get a free £5 bet to use on Multiples or Bet Builders. Bets must settle before 23:59 on the day they're placed. No opt-in required, T&Cs apply.

Boost your odds on three horses every day on the Betfair Sportsbook. T&Cs apply.