Thankfully our sole ante-post selection Fivethousandtoone advised 11.010/1 in the 15:00 at Newbury, has been declared. I am even more bullish on his chances now seeing the final make-up of the field.
If you didn't back him at the advised 11.010/1 during the week, I suggest backing him today but only at odds of 5.04/1 or more.
I won't cover old ground; you can read the ante-post column here if you wish.
Happy with stance on ante-post play
Gisburn 3.55/2 ran well at Goodwood. Predictably the Richard Hannon horse has been put in at the head of the market after that effort and does like it here at Newbury. I have no qualms with that, but he looks limited on balance, and this is deeper than the race than at Goodwood.
Silent Film 5.59/2 looks handicapped to the hilt, and United Front 8.07/1 is taking a marked drop in distance for the first time since 2020, which is not sure to suit.
Able Kane 13.012/1 could get the run of the race and is probably over-priced, so expect some support for that one. Documenting 17.016/1 is the other that looks dangerous. The former needs to bounce back, and the latter has done little wrong in his last few starts - he caught the eye in the Moet And Chandon at Ascot, and I have been backing him the last three outings!
I am tempted to have a cover bet on Documenting at big odds, but that would be through fear of missing out. Fivethousandtoone still makes plenty of appeal, and this step back up in trip will see further improvement, but there's no need to go in again at his current 4.03/1.
All about Chindit in the Hungerford Stakes
I was of the impression that Chindit 4.57/2 would be far shorter in this market would he of been declared, but that's not the case, and I am struggling to see why. He is the class act in the field and fast ground is what he wants.
Outside of Group 1 company, he has won six of his eight starts. He has a different dynamic to cope with today, and he is still a very useful animal.
The concern midweek was the drop back in trip to seven furlongs. Still, there is enough pace in this contest to suit a strong stayer at the trip, and he has hardly hit the line hard over 1m, so the drop back could easily see further improvement.
Tiber Flow 4.57/2 is interesting for last year's winning trainer. Happy Romance 9.08/1 - Richard Hannon's second runner - did have Pogo 4.57/2 behind in Saudi last year. Still, she needs to prove her stamina in a well-run race over this trip, and Tiber Flow does need a career-best to win this.
He looks like a great bet back down in grade at anything bigger than 3.55/2.
High draw and prominent the key to Great St Wilfred success
High-drawn runners have taken the last six of the 14:50 at Ripon, and all six were described as prominent or making the running. Four of these are running out of the handicap - Ventura Express (-2), Good Earth (-3), Embour (-4), and Mark's Choice (-10).
Last year's winner Justanotherbottle 7.06/1, has an excellent record of 3-3 at this venue. He has bounced back from a below-par effort before, so the poor run at Goodwood in the Stewards Cup shouldn't be too much of a concern.
He has been granted a high draw next to one of the pace angles in Emperor Spirit 13.012/1- a horse he comfortably held here in June. His draw in stall ten will allow him to get on the rail, and he should be in pole position. Still, he is 15 pounds higher than winning this race last year and I have to reluctantly pass.
Snash 9.08/1 is a horse I wanted to be with. He is in gate 14, and in the hope that his rider doesn't hold him up, he should get a good tow into this contest from the above-mentioned Emperor Spirit in 13.
He is completely unexposed at this trip, and he has the back class to continue to defy the handicapper. His recent win at Ayr looks solid form, and there could be any amount of improvement left in him - he was thought highly enough to run in the Superlative Stakes as a two-year-old. His upward curve could easily continue today.