Daryl Carter Ante-Post Tips: A 10/1 no-brainer bet for Saturday at Newbury

Dubai Poet best three-year-old in Hungerford Stakes

This week, the first port of call was the 15:35 Group 3 Hungerford Stakes at Newbury, a race I usually do well in over the years with Dream Of Dreams, Glorious Journey, Sir Dancelot and Breton Rock past winners for me.

This year looks as good a renewal as ever, even though just 12 are entered for the contest. The betting is headed by Richard Hannon's Chindit 3.55/2, a predictable but correct favourite and one frustratingly with two entries this week.

It takes a good three-year-old to win this or a poor renewal, and last year's winner, Sacred, had the latter. It's not this time, but many of these have doubts about stamina and Dubai Poet 11.010/1 could prove best of the youngsters on the back of a good Royal Ascot performance.

Tiber Flow 6.05/1 is the shortest in the market of the three-year-old entrants this year, but he looks to be flying too high in this company. He will need a career-best on all known figures to feature in the business end, and I suspect William Haggas will be hoping the step back up to seven furlongs can prove that source of improvement. Still, he is extremely short on balance, and you could easily argue that Dubai Poet 11.010/1 is over-priced in comparison.

Dubai Poet ran a screamer reverted to a more conventional track at Royal Ascot when doing best of the low-drawn runners in the Jersey Stakes, and that form has not worked out badly.

Drawn in stall two, he finished an excellent third of 15 with the winner, second, fourth, fifth and sixth drawn 14, 12, 13, 11 and 15 and the fifth won in good style at Goodwood.

Alflaila was narrowly touched off by Group 1 performer Mighty Ulysses before he scored in Listed company - another of those drawn low. Dubawi Legend came out of that contest to run third in the Group 3 Hackwood Stakes to give a line into many of these, suggesting that Dubai Poet has little to find to be competitive.

I doubt whether or not that race is strong enough to make him a stand-out candidate for this contest, but his claims are pretty strong, and this is his sole entry for the weekend.

He could easily be the one to outstay many of his rivals with his prominent tactics likely to give him every chance. Wings Of War 17.016/1 completes the three-year-old list, and this trip is worth a go, but he needs stacks more to be competitive here.

Hannon hungry for more with Chindit at Newbury

No matter how you look at this race Chindit 3.55/2 is the stand-out candidate from a win perspective. The drop in trip is a slight concern, but with many of these stepping up in distance and the confirmed front runners in Pogo 4.03/1 and Dubai Poet, there looks to be a strong pace. He has the measure of Pogo from their meeting at Goodwood last term when he was checked in the run, dropped three or four lengths off and then came back at that runner strongly at the line - he is the superior animal.

This is another excellent piece of placing by his trainer should Chindit run, and the 3.55/2 could look more like 2.35/4 race day.

The slight concern is that he has an entry at Salisbury on Thursday, and we won't know until Tuesday midday whether he takes up that engagement, unfortunately, despite my attempts to find out.

I am going to hold fire, but this is a race that will feature prominently, no doubt, in Saturday's column!

Balding's Fivethousandtoone outstanding value

Sticking with Newbury, the 15:00 Handicap offers outstanding value with the well-handicapped Fivethousandtoone 11.010/1, who took a giant leap back in the right direction at Salisbury in a three-runner conditions event 16 days ago.

The first-time cheek-pieces could be the reason for that, so they will need to work again, but the way he finished out that race suggests that he is right back to form. He was unfavoured by the steady gallop at the rear of the three-runner field and had to switch around runners but finished with a power-packed punch.

The initial reaction by this market is that he was flattered by his run sandwiched between two horses rated 110 and 104 when he had a bit to find at the weights in that conditions event. Still, I believe he is on his way back, and it makes sense to take a chance at the current prices with him quickly switching to handicap company.

He has fallen in the handicap over the last ten months from a rating of 102 down to 93, but his best efforts have come on rattling fast ground and his two runs this season on the back of a gelding operation can easily be forgiven.

He returns to Newbury, where he was an excellent second in the Group 2 Mill Reef as a two-year-old and the step back up to seven furlongs today is a massive source of improvement on what is likely to be a lightning-quick surface.

His two efforts at this distance saw him run well, but they both came in Group company. He faded away at York in the Group 2 City Of York Stakes and was only beaten four lengths in the Group 1 Dewhurst as a two-year-old.

He looks ready to deliver on the promise of his early years and is a no-brainer bet at the prices, even with his Doncaster entry looming and my Bashosh (again has four entries) entered up.

Draw plays a big role at Ripon

The day's feature race is the 14:50 Great St Wilfred Handicap at Ripon, in which Blackrod 8.07/1 has been installed as the Betfair Sportsbook's favourite. I have no qualms with that, although I fail to see where his improvement will come from off this lofty rating of 99 for his new handler Edward Bethell.

It's hard to knock the consistent Great Ambassador 9.08/1, who did well in the Stewards Cup, but that's not unnoticed by the odds compilers. Spangled Mac 11.010/1 is in cracking form for George Boughey, and the possibility of him turning out here quickly after his fast-finishing effort in the Shergar Cup Sprint is intriguing. He looks ahead of the handicapper and would need to be taken seriously if rocking up here.

Old favourites Summerghand 11.010/1 and last year's winner Justanotherbottle 11.010/1 - the latter 15 pounds higher than last year - were considered.

However, after numerous hours spent on this race and the 13:40 Silver Trophy Handicap (Consolation race), I decided the draw plays too much of a part in this contest, and it was best to wait for the day.

High-drawn and prominent runners have proved fruitful over the years. The last six winners have made all in this contest, and the last five were drawn in double-figure stalls. Couple that with the number of horses likely to defect from the main race into the consolation, and we have a recipe for disaster.