Cheltenham Trials Day: Betfair Cleeve Hurdle Trends

• Katie Midwinter focuses on the noteworthy trends in the Betfair Cleeve Hurdle

• Find out which trends suit favour certain runners in Saturday's race

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Crambo is the one to beat in the Cleeve Hurdle

The staying hurdlers take centre stage in the Betfair Cleeve Hurdle, as eight runners bid for Grade Two glory at Prestbury Park. Crambo and Strong Leader are both vying for favouritism at the head of the market, with the latter bidding to bounce back following a disappointing effort in the Long Walk Hurdle, in an Ascot Grade One won by the former.

Coming into the race on the back of the victory has proven successful for nine of the last twenty winners of the race, and Crambo is the only one in this field who boasts winning form on his previous start. The eight-year-old displayed great tenacity to prevail over the rallying Hiddenvalley Lake, staying on strongly towards the line to retain his title in the extended three-mile contest.

Last season, Crambo went straight to the Cheltenham Festival following his Ascot success over Paisley Park, unable to land a blow in the Stayers' Hurdle in March when a distance behind winner Teahupoo. These are calmer waters, and, although the Fergal O'Brien-trained gelding lacks winning course form, he remains unexposed at the course and is dropping in Grade, making him the one to beat.

All but three of the previous nineteen winners, excluding Tidal Bay in 2010, were rated 150 or higher. Only Crambo and Strong Leader fit that trend, further suggesting they're the main horses to focus on in this race. Despite this, there have been some shocks, most notably Knockara Beau, who obliged at 66/167.00 in 2014, but this is somewhat of a rare occurrence.

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Strong Leader must bounce back

Olly Murphy-trained Strong Leader has undergone wind surgery following his hefty defeat when a beaten favourite at 11/82.38 last month, having previously beaten the reopposing Monmiral by three-and-a-half-lengths in the Grade Two Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury on his seasonal reappearance.

He finished third in the race last year, making up plenty of ground having become outpaced, beaten only a length-and-a-quarter by the winner, Noble Yeats. Whilst Strong Leader rallied, and showed a great attitude to get back on terms at the line, he must become the first horse in the past ten years to win following a previous defeat in the race, if he is to reign victorious.

Age doesn't appear to matter too much in recent history, and none of this year's field are in the veteran stage as of yet, nor necessarily at the other end of the spectrum.

Nine is the most popular winning age in the previous twenty renewals, with five winning nine-year-olds, and Gowel Road, Botox Has, and Ga Law all fall into that category, but there have been four eight-year-old winners, as well as two seven-year-old winners, with seven winning at a younger age, therefore, there doesn't appear to be a significant bias.

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Unexposed contender could show improvement

The youngest, and least exposed, in the field is Kerryhill. Making only his fifth start over hurdles, the seven-year-old is two from four so far, following two creditable point appearances, including one win, and has proven form at this level in novice company, landing the River Don at Doncaster twelve months ago.

Only seen on one occasion since, when pulled up in the ultra competitive Betfair Stayers' Handicap Hurdle at Haydock, it's difficult to decipher the level of ability this gelding possesses, and how much improvement he will be able to show in open company. He has previously finished fourth over course-and-distance, which is a positive considering all but one of the previous twenty winners had prior experience at the course.

Gold Tweet, who provided a shock when winning at odds of 14/115.00 in 2023, is the only horse since 2004 not to have previously appeared at Cheltenham. All other nineteen winners in that time period had previously set foot on the hallowed turf, with twelve of them previous winners here.

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Ditcheat representative is the only course-and-distance winner in the field

Five of the eight in this year's renewal have previously proven themselves at the course, but only Gowel Road, Monmiral and Botox Has have won over hurdles here. Ga Law and Transmission have both won over fences here, but Monmiral is the only winner over course-and-distance, having landed the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Final at last year's Festival.

Paul Nicholls has won three renewals, twice with the great Big Buck's and, most recently, with Saphir Du Rheu in 2015. The Ditcheat handler is represented by Monmiral this year, an imposing gelding who must prove himself at this level.

His opening run of the season left plenty to be desired, but he showed significant improvement to finish second to Strong Leader, and, although he faces a stiff task to reverse that form, his rival has disappointed since, and should Monmiral take another step forward, he could have a part to play.

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Gowel Road could pose a threat

The only double-figure priced winner in the past ten renewals was Gold Tweet, with fifteen of the previous twenty winners returning at single-figure odds. Nine from twenty favourites have won since 2004, suggesting it's worth looking at those towards the head of the market on trends.

Gowel Road, available at odds of 10/34.33, has been running consistently well this season, with four second-placed finishes, including when three-quarters-of-a-length behind Lucky Place in the Relkeel Hurdle. He could be the one to pose the biggest threat to the leading pair, but, despite receiving 6lb from the market leaders, the Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained gelding has 10lb to find with Crambo, and a further 2lb to find with Strong Leader.

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Trends suggest to focus on main market principles

Ga Law has little hurdling form, and hasn't been competitive over timber since winning at Argentan on debut in 2019, but has the staying credentials and ability should he be able to make a swift transition from chasing, whilst Transmission has amassed more experience in the hurdling sphere, with more recent success, but has been solely seen over fences this season. Botox Has, who landed the Rendlesham at Haydock in heavy ground last February, for which he carries a 6lb penalty, may not have conditions in his favour here, which is a concern.

Only two of the previous ten winners have carried 11st 8lb, and Botox Has, as well as Crambo and Strong Leader, are the only horses who carry top weight in this renewal. The previous two winners, Noble Yeats and Gold Tweet, respectively, carried 11st 2lb, and if that's to happen for a third success year, it would mean one of Transmission, Ga Law or Gowel Road return victorious.

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Betfair Cleeve Hurdle Verdict

1. Strong Leader

2. Crambo

3. Kerryhill

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