St Leger Day Three Tips: Ambiance to show his quality in Flying Childers

Some days horses just jump out at you and beg to be to tipped and backed. And most days, you wish they hadn't!

Step forward Medicean Man on Wednesday, who carried far too much of my money and ran embarrassingly badly, though at least Nargys restored the faith and the bank balance on Thursday.

And then you get others, like today, where digging out a decent bet is hard work. A lot of the races on Friday's Doncaster card are small-field condition races, with little between most of the contenders, and a lot will depend on how much rain the course gets until race-time and how the track rides.

In such circumstances, I feel it is prudent to keep stakes to a minimum - am I allowed to say that on a betting site, by the way? - but I have three recommendations all the same.

Doncaster 13:40 - Ambiance

I wasn't going to get involved in the Flying Childers at 13:40, but I was surprised to see Ambiance forecast at around the 6.05/1 mark. That was enough to tempt me in, with conditions in his favour.

He ran perfectly well in a first time visor when fourth to some of Ireland's best 2yos in the Group 1 Pheonix Stakes last time, and the step back down to 5f here will suit him better.

His 5f form this season includes a listed win, a fourth in the Albany and a third in the Molecomb, and that consistent level of form reads very well in this company.

Doncaster 14:10

The sponsors must be very disappointed indeed with a turn-out of only seven runners for the valuable Mallard Stakes.

If we don't get any more rain, then Tropical Beat, withdrawn from a couple of big races recently because of soft ground, will run a big race. I am not playing in the race. But, if forced, I would probably side with Pether's Moon, raised a fair 6lb for an impressive Goodwood win and who looks set to appreciate the step up in trip.

Doncaster 14:40 - Biographer

I will have an interest on Biographer in the Doncaster Cup at 14:20, though. Back him at 5.04/1 or bigger.

He ran below par at Newbury last time but he had earlier looked a stayer to follow when second to Caucus over 2m on fast ground at Sandown in July, and David Lanigan has his string in blisteringly good form. He is equally at home on soft ground, so everything looks in place for a big run.

Doncaster 16:25 - Norse Blues

I can't get excited by the prices on offer in either of the big juvenile races, but I am going to have an interest in Norse Blues in the 16:25. He is likely to be more like our usual price, so back him at odds of 21.020/1 or bigger.

He is not an obvious selection, racing off the same, career-high, mark than when seventh at York last time. And I don't think that he would want any more rain.

But he ran well enough at York, had earlier won with authority at Thirsk, has won at this course and I just think forcing tactics over this shorter trip could see him spring a surprise.

If it does end up soft though, my confidence would wane somewhat.

Recommendations

Back Ambiance at 6.05/1 or bigger in 13:40
Back Biographer at 5.04/1 or bigger in 14:20
Back Norse Blues at 21.020/1 or bigger in 16:25