Saturday Racing Tips: Somersby can challenge Special Tiara for Betfair Tingle Creek

Hopefully, one or two of you are sitting reasonably pretty after taking the ante-post advice to back Special Tiara each-way with the Sportsbook at 20/1 on Tuesday, but I certainly wouldn't advise you to lay off at his current price of 6.611/2 for Sandown's Betfair Tingle Creek at 15:00.

Shopping earlier in the week and then chopping on Saturday morning - or backing then laying off for a no-loss scenario, or green book, for those who didn't understand that contrived, deliberately rhyming trading advice - could well be your bag. And it is sometimes mine. But this is one occasion where I would suggest that you sit tight.

Because you can now make a pretty convincing case for him being favourite, and a potential market-shortener, now that his main pace rival, and the long-time market leader, Un De Sceaux is out of the race.

I personally can't have Vibrato Valtat at the price and clearly Sire De Grugy has a lot to prove after Exeter.

However, let's not lose sight of who is officially the best horse going into this race. Yes, Special Tiara.

He is the highest-rated horse in the field on a pretty lofty mark of 168 after his six-length defeat of Sprinter Sacre - with Mr Mole, Vibrato Valtat and Somersby trailing in his wake - in the AP McCoy Celebration Chase over course and distance in April, and the drying ground this week is a massive positive.

Yes, he ran badly on his reappearance at Navan, and that's an obvious concern. But he improved a great deal for his first run last season, his trainer reports him in much better nick now - then again, when don't they? - and his form figures in this country make impressive reading, with three wins from seven starts.

And if you do back him at 6.611/2 then he could be an in-running trade, too, though there are a couple in here who could look to take him on for the lead.

I honestly believe that he is the likeliest winner and a very fair price at 11/2, and if I was going to oppose him at the prices it would be with Somersby, also for the reasons that I outlined in Tuesday's piece.

I was tempted at 20/1 then, so I have to put him up win and place at 15.529/2 and 3.613/5 respectively with the favourite out of the race.

He ran well on his reappearance, and has finished second in this race for the last two years, and just looks rock-solid, even allowing for his advancing years.

***

The Henry VIII Chase at 13:55 is an absolute cracker but not a betting heat for me, with impressive Winner Bristol De Mai the correct favourite at around the 7/4 mark.

But I seriously wouldn't be surprised if any of the six won it, as they are all talented horses, unexposed over fences, so I am happy to watch.

***

Savello looks a bet at 7.06/1 in the 2m handicap hurdle at 14:25.

This horse is obviously quite tricky, as he wears a hood and is taken to the start early. But he is also very talented, and this 2014 Grand Annual winner switches to hurdles after a good third in the Shloer Chase last time.

And little wonder that Dan Skelton runs him here instead of the Tingle Creek as he is rated a whopping 18lb lower over hurdles, and I think conditions could be ideal for him to exploit a very favourable mark.

***

I will also chuck a few quid at Tales Of Milan in the 15:35, at odds of 26.025/1 or bigger,

These extreme tests of stamina take some getting but we know that he does stay, as he won the race last year. He has dropped back to a decent mark, despite being 2lb out of the handicap, especially with talented 7lb claimer Harry Cobden in the saddle.

He has been running badly but the tongue tie and blinkers that he wore when winning this race last year are back on. He is worth a small nibble at what will be big odds, as he is the probable outsider of the field.

***

Over at Aintree, the Becher at 13:40 is obviously very competitive. But I stuck up Dolatulo at 22.021/1 ante-post on Tuesday and I am more than happy with that position.

I tipped him on the basis that he is on a fair mark on his Rowland Meyrick win last season, his stable are going as well as ever and he apparently pleased them in a recent racecourse gallop at Newbury.

But I've since discovered that he has had a wind op - jockey Gavin Sheehan reports that the horse feels "more confident" after it - and has also been schooled him over Grand National fences recently, too, so the old confidence has notched up another couple of levels.

He remains very backable at 15.014/1 or bigger, but there are no fresh bets in the race for me.

***

The four-runner Lotto Chase at 14:15 sees the return of RSA winner Don Poli but I can't get excited by the race, betting-wise.

I like Double Ross in the Grand Sefton at 15:20, but there isn't too much juice in his price at 6.611/2 - he is definitely the right favourite though and I couldn't put you off him - so I will go to the 14:45 for my final bet of the day.

Karinga Dancer is of obvious interest switching back to hurdles but ideally he would want better ground. And while I like the angle of Un Ace stepping down in trip after running respectably over an extended 3m1f at Cheltenham last time, the testing conditions are again a big concer.

Fort Smith is definitely worth a second a look on his debut for Sam Thomas and rates the bet at 17.016/1.

I'll be honest, I am slightly worried about his relatively inexperienced jockey, especially as former trainer Gordon Elliott called the horse a "pure pig" after he won at Downpatrick in May!

But the little "oinker" could well have been let in very lightly here - he is rated 125 over hurdles, yet 140 over fences - and hopefully Thomas has hopefully sweetened him up at home, and it is interesting that he has left the usual blinkers off.


Recommended Bets

Back Savello at 7.06/1 in the 14:25 at Sandown
Back Fort Smith at 17.016/1 in the 14:45 at Aintree
Back Somersby at 15.529/2 win and 3.613/5 to place in 15:00 at Sandown (already advised Special Tiara at 20/1)
Back Tales Of Milan at 26.025/1 or bigger in the 15:35 at Sandown