Tony Calvin: 20/1 Tiara is the Tingle Creek value

It's the first Saturday in December, it's the Betfair Tingle Creek, it's Sandown - so obviously it's Somersby each-way at 20-1 with the Betfair Sportsbook for the Grade 1 prize isn't it?

Or win-only, too, at 36.035/1 on the exchange for those who believe that the 1.635/8 favourite Un De Sceaux is beatable.

Maybe not.

The problem is that running plans for Somersby are up in the air, it seems, so it has to be no bet at the moment. Which is a shame, as I think the favourite is opposable.

Now, clearly, favourite Un De Sceaux deserves to be a shade of odds-on given that he carried all before him after falling on his chasing debut at Thurles. But even the form of his 15-length defeat of Clarcam in a three-runner Grade 1 at Leopardstown, or his six-length beating of God's Own in the Arkle, doesn't give him too much in hand of a few of these.

Everyone knows how much jumping these fences take, so any over-exuberance on his part - and he also has a likely pace-rival in here with Special Tiara, and possibly Third Intention, while Mr Mole has gone on in the past too, so he probably won't get his own way out in front - could prove his undoing.

And as we have seen this season, we shouldn't expect Willie Mullins to have his superstars primed first time up, though you do suspect that Un De Sceaux is the type to get himself ready at home.

On balance, I think he is one to oppose at 8-13, and Somersby was initially one I really liked against him at the prices. And hopefully he is allowed to take his chance in this race once again, but be aware that he is also in the Peterborough at Huntingdon on Sunday, and perhaps missing both.

Now, the first thing to say about Somersby is that he is an exposed 11-year-old and he won't shorten in the betting unless something happens to rule out the favourite. So feel free to keep your powder dry, if you so wish, and back him in the day-of-race market if he turns up.

I would personally advise a wait-and-see approach, with connections apparently still tossing up between Sandown and Huntingdon.

But, with only 10 entries, it doesn't take a genius to work out there is the possibility of seven runners or less and only two places come Saturday, so some of you may be happy to take your chances now.

And, on the subject of each-way betting, a quick word. As some people think each-way is a dirty word in betting these days.

When I pointed out a couple of weeks ago that Melodic Rendezvous was almost a bet to nothing at 6-1 each-way with the Sportsbook in Haydock's Betfair Price Rush Hurdle - and it nearly literally was as he only just struggled into third in what, predictably, turned into a four-runner race on the day! - I got plenty of abuse on Twitter.

I have no problem with criticism and there should be more of it in this game - so feel free to have a pop at @tony_calvin, as god knows I deserve it - but there were a few sneers from people in the bookmaking industry who basically said it was a pretty low tip.

Well, I will just say two things to that.

If bookies price up a race then they should be willing to take bets at the advertised place terms - bet win-only if you don't like the shape of the race. And if Betfair were happy for me to tip it with their Sportsbook (I suspect most other bookies wouldn't have allowed such copy on their site), then there was no issue.

Anyway, back to Somersby. He ran a decent race, at a respectful distance, behind Sprinter Sacre in the Shloer last month and that should have put the Champion Chase runner-up spot on for this valuable prize.

He finished second to Dodging Bullets in this race last December, and runner-up to Sire de Grugy the year before, and clearly excels here.

He is just about the least sexy horse in the race but you could easily argue that he is the most solid horse too, and the one most likely to benefit if the favourite underperforms. If he is allowed to take his chance, that is, so keep an eye out for confirmed running plans during the week.

There is nothing wrong with Vibrato Valtat apart from his price at around the 4-1 mark. He won the Henry VIII at this meeting last season and probably ran a career-best when taking the Haldon Gold Cup by four lengths off a mark of 157 at Exeter last month.

I can quite happily swerve the next two in the betting, Simonsig and Sire de Grugy, although I wouldn't be in such a rush to dismiss Special Tiara at 20-1 each-way. However, once again, there is no word on his likely participation at this stage.

Yes, he has questions to answer after his poor Navan reappearance last month and ideally would want quicker ground, though it is currently good to soft at Sandown and an unsettled forecast this week doesn't look too bad.

He came on massively for his opening run last season, and form-wise he is probably the biggest threat to the favourite on his six length defeat of Sprinter Sacre - Mr Mole, Vibrato Valtat and Somersby in behind - over course and distance in April.

The contest for the lead is a potential negative but he was given an easy time of it here in April, and didn't too badly. And you have to think connections will be sorely tempted to come here, especially as he doesn't have any other short-term options, it seems.

All things considered, I think he could get the favourite "at it" and is worth chancing, to small stakes, at 20-1 each way with the Sportsbook. For a horse of his ability, he is largely unheralded.

* * *

Getting running plans for the Aintree races priced up on Saturday was equally troublesome - there are only two horses jocked up in those contests at the time of writing - yes just two - so bear that in mind if punting.

One of the two horses jocked up at Aintree is Dolatulo in the Becher and I think he could be worth an interest at 22.021/1 or bigger on the exchange.

He went off the 15-2 favourite for the Grand Sefton on this card last season and finished a modest 8th, before rounding off his campaign with a tailed-off effort in the Grand National, so he hasn't got a great record over these fences.

But the 2m5f of the Grand Sefton was probably an inadequate test of stamina, as much as the National was too extreme, and this trip could be much more up his strasse.

That certainly looked the case when he won the Rowland Meyrick on Boxing Day last season. Yes, he is now 7lb higher but there are reasons for believing that he will be spot on here.

Firstly, he has a decent record when fresh anyway but Warren Greatrex reports that he was very pleased with him after a recent racecourse gallop at Newbury. And we know what good form the stable is in, too.

Don Poli is the obvious favourite at around the 7-4 mark for the Lotto Chase on the card, though Grand National winner Many Clouds could give him a race and is a fair price at 7.06/1 after his Wetherby reappearance.

The Grand Sefton is clearly very tricky but the two who interested me were Opening Batsman and Benny's Mist.

However, Benny's Mist has certainly not been missed in the market - I was surprised to see him as short as 8-1 in places and only a top-priced 10-1 - and Opening Batsman is much more like it at 16-1.

He ran better than his finishing position suggested over 3m at Limerick last time and I can see him running a big race over these fences, down in trip, if they pop him out in front and he enjoys himself.

I think he is still on a fair mark, and he doesn't hold any other entries at the moment, so fingers crossed he goes for the race. Keep bets small on him, though.


Recommended Bets
Back Special Tiara at 20-1 each way with the Betfair Sportsbook for the Betfair Tingle Creek
Back Dolatulo at 22.021/1 or bigger in the Becher Chase at Aintree
Back Opening Batsman at 16-1 each way with Betfair Sportsbook for the Grand Sefton at Aintree