Betfair Sprint Cup Big Race Verdict: Back Balding's Marvel to be last man standing at 4/1

Heavy conditions play to the strengths of Marvelman this weekend

It's the Betfair Sprint Cup at Haydock on Saturday and Alan Dudman has a tip in his latest Big Race Verdict...


Click here for Betfair Sprint Cup odds
Saturday 05 September, 15:40
Live on ITV1

Favourite's team have no ground fears

The 23mm of rain that hit Merseyside on Thursday night claimed American Affair, whose trainer Jim Goldie pulled him out on account of the ground and at the time of writing, nine were still in the race.

Almeraq was as solid 9/43.25 as of Friday midday from 5/23.50 while Marvelman 4/15.00 from 6/17.00 and Paborus 7/18.00 from 11/112.00 were notable movers.

On the Betfair Sportsbook, with nine in the field, it is three places each-way.

Ground worries assuaged by Almeraq's connections

Group 1 honours on quick ground came the way of Almeraq at Royal Ascot but he flopped in the subsequent July Cup when trailing in a sorry ninth, and that it is how this sprint division is rolling these days.

Almeraq's trainer William Haggas appears not too worried about the going as he stated earlier this week: "It looks like being soft so Almeraq is a definite runner."

Angus Gold, Shadwell racing manager also backed up the plans on Sky Sports saying: "It's interesting, whether the ground has put a few people off... they've had the rain and it sounds like they're going to get a bit more.

"Hopefully we'll be there with a squeak.

"He's got form on soft and he's got the feet that would suggest he'll handle soft ground, I don't think that'll bother us."

He won an Ayr Gold Trial on soft and also scored at Yarmouth in soft conditions as a youngster.

Kind Of Blue or Marvelman?

Has Kind Of Blue 7/24.50 still got the class to win this?

The evidence from just two runs this season doesn't make the strongest of cases as he was well behind Almeraq in the Jubilee at Royal Ascot, but he didn't have his conditions.

The rain is the leveller for Kind Of Blue, who did win a Champions Day Ascot sprint in soft back in 2024. That was his last victory, and his Timeform figures are far too inconsistent to consider as a second favourite.

Ratings wise his York run on reappearance is an absolute standout with the Halifax boys rating that outing 114+. Either side 88 and 101 represent wild swings - too wild for me as a bet.

Marvelman is a 4lb better horse on Timeform ratings compared to Kind Of Blue and with soft conditions is a few pounds better too.

Andrew Balding's horse stays 7f, was second to Paborus in the Chipchase and will be the one to finish off strongly.

The clock backs that up.

He was stronger in the closing furlong at Newcastle and was 0.10 quicker than Paborus at the end. That was over 6f, but the 7f in testing going in the Group 2 Park Stakes saw him at his best - running the strongest final sectional again, 12.58. Beating 12.91, 12.93 and 12.97.

If he is doing that at Doncaster, in heavy, in a Group 2 over 7f, he is sure to be stout at the end.

Marvelman holds an entry for next week's Group 2 Park Stakes again to retain the crown, but connections must fancy their chances for such an open Group 1.

Trainer form

William Haggas: 11-52 at 21% from the last two weeks. At Haydock this term 5-18 at 28%.

Richard Hannon: 0-45 last two weeks at 0%. At Haydock this term 1-14 at 7%.

Andrew Balding: 9-55 at 16% last two weeks. 15-125 last five seasons at Haydock at 12%.

Clive Cox: 2-18 at 11% last two weeks. 17-90 last five seasons at Haydock 19% and level stakes profit at +18.46.

James Fanshawe: 4-20 at 20% last two weeks.

Ed Bethell: 3-27 last two weeks at 11%. 16-89 last five seasons at Haydock 18% and level stakes profit +7.60.

Mick Appleby: 2-24 at 8% last two weeks. 8-70 last five seasons at Haydock.

Alan Dudman's Big Race Verdict

Big Mojo got his head back in front at the Curragh last time, but he's impossible to fancy in heavy conditions while Coppull, a three-year-old getting the weight, does most of his racing on good to firm.

It comes down to taking on the favourite for me and a choice between Marvelman and Kind Of Blue.

Backing the latter you have the going in your favour, but Marvelman's ability to stay a little further is the swinger here. If it's a slog, it could be last man standing.

Marvelman ran in the ultra-hot Group 1 City Of York last time and probably overdid it from the front, running 97% as a finishing speed. He did have Notable Speech breathing down his neck though and did no more than set the race up for him.

Andrew Balding's strike-rate has dipped a little since York but Marvelman is a 7f winner in soft and can go forward and prominent. At 127 on Timeform ratings, he has just 2lb to find with Almeraq and a slog could suit him better.


Now read Katie Midwinter's Saturday preview and get her Betfair Sprint Cup tip


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Back Marvelman in the 15:40 at Haydock @ 4/15.00

Alan Dudman

Alan is a long term member of the Betting.Betfair team and has been a broadcaster and writer for over 20 years.

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