St Leger Preview: Galileo a Rock-solid selection

The St Leger, run over an extended 14 furlongs in September, provides an opportunity for late-maturing types, who may not have been quick or clued-up enough to compete in the Derby in early June, to grab their slice of Classic glory. The St Leger is a fascinating race as the 'form horses', with experience in top middle-distance contests, come up against stamina-laden types brought along with the race in mind. This year, however, there is a horse that falls into both camps. A horse that possesses stamina in abundance but showed enough speed to be competitive against the best of his generation. The horse in question is Galileo Rock.

The well named Galileo Rock has proven to be a reliable, rock-solid performer this season, showing a smart level of form to hit the frame in the Derby at Epsom and the Irish equivalent at the Curragh. Going into the Derby - which was just the fourth start of his career, incidentally - it had been feared that Galileo Rock would lack the speed to make an impact at the top level over one and a half miles, but he emerged with his reputation enhanced, showing an admirable attitude to finish third. Galileo Rock undoubtedly benefited from a good tactical ride at Epsom, positioned close to the steady pace and allowed to unwind from a fair way out, but the sedate gallop, which eased noticeably mid-race, failed to put a premium on stamina so in that regard he arguably did well to finish so close.

A lack of pace in the race was not a problem in the Irish Derby, however, as two outsiders took the field along at a good clip, allowing Trading Leather, the eventual winner, to clock a winning race time that has only been bettered by St Jovite and Galileo in the last 50 years. Galileo Rock, running to a very similar level as at Epsom, threw down the sternest challenge and finished an extremely creditable second, comprehensively reversing Epsom form with Ruler of The World and Libertarian, both of whom performed some way below their best.

Boasting a stamina-laden pedigree, Galileo Rock, who is closely-related to established stayer Saddler's Rock, has always looked like a stayer in the making; the fact he has run so well in such prestigious middle-distance events bodes especially well for his future prospects as he looks almost certain, based on pedigree and run style, to relish the extended 14 furlong trip of the St Leger.

Galileo Rock's St Leger price has remained relatively static - trading around the 7.513/2 mark - since the Irish Derby and he looks decent value when you consider his form arguably sets the standard and that he is capable of improving upon it granted a stiffer test of stamina.
 
If a horse to emerge from the traditional Leger trials is to have a say in the outcome at Doncaster then it will surely be Excess Knowledge, a narrowly-beaten runner-up in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood. Excess Knowledge certainly left the impression that he was the best horse in the Gordon Stakes, beaten by a fast-diminishing head having been held up off a steady gallop, and he has looked like a horse of some potential as a three-year-old.

Excess Knowledge produced what, at the time, seemed like an encouraging seasonal return in a ten-furlong listed contest at Sandown. However, the subsequent exploits of the horses he split, Afsare and David Livingstone, indicate that it was more than just an encouraging performance: it was a smart effort over an inadequate trip. 

Considering John Gosden's excellent record in the race, and the step up in trip which is likely to be an advantage, it would register as little surprise were Excess Knowledge fully primed to launch a career-best effort in the St Leger. Whether he still offers any value from an ante-post perspective, trading as the clear favourite at 5.69/2, is a matter of debate, though, as others have achieved more and look equally well suited to the demands of the race. On balance, Galileo Rock probably just shades Excess Knowledge in terms of value.

Galileo Rock and Excess Knowledge both look solid towards the head of the market, but that is not to say that there isn't value elsewhere. Talent, an impressive winner of an admittedly sub-standard Oaks, immediately catches the eye, trading at 17.016/1. Granted, she was extremely disappointing on her only start since that Epsom triumph, trailing home last of all in the Irish Oaks, but that effort at the Curragh was simply too bad to be true. She pulled hard, found nothing and was heavily eased in the closing stages; it is easy to write that performance off as an aberration, a performance not in keeping with her positive, progressive profile. Her trainer, Ralph Beckett, has stated that the St Leger is the target and Talent, who hails from a good middle-distance family, has enough stamina in her pedigree to suggest that she will be effective over this trip. 

Even acknowledging that it wasn't the strongest renewal of the Oaks, Talent's victory at Epsom still rates as a notable performance in the context of this race and her fillies' allowance puts her right among the leading protagonists on Timeform ratings. She obviously comes with risks attached but it is not often that you have the chance to back a classic winner, who remains relatively unexposed, at such a big price. 

Another potential contender on something of a recovery mission is Libertarian, the fast-finishing Derby runner-up who hasn't been seen since running deplorably at the Curragh. The way Libertarian charged home at Epsom, making significant late progress to grab second, suggested that the longer trip of the St Leger would see him in an even better light and he was installed as favourite for the Doncaster classic on the back of that effort. However, racing in the silks of his new owners, Godolphin, for the first time, Libertarian was a bitter disappointment in the Irish Derby and has since moved to the Charlie Appleby yard; although he has been strong in the Betfair market recently, it is worth noting that he hasn't been confirmed as a certain starter. He would clearly be an intriguing runner but worries about his well-being and participation mean that odds of 11.521/2 don't look particularly appealing.

Another horse that doesn't strike as representing great value is Leading Light, the winner of the two-mile Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot. Leading Light displayed a tremendous attitude under pressure, finding plenty in the closing stages to register his fourth successive victory, but he will face more talented rivals in the St Leger and looks vulnerable to pacier sorts. Despite the abundance of speed in his pedigree on the female side - his dam won the Queen Mary as a juvenile - Leading Light looks like a sure-fire Cup horse for next year and dropping back in trip by one and a half furlongs in the St Leger is unlikely to lead to an improved performance. 

A stronger Aidan O'Brien-trained candidate could be the Great Voltigeur runner-up, Foundry. An impressive winner on his sole start as a juvenile, Foundry shaped extremely well on his return from a 290-day absence at York, showing much improved form as he stuck to his task well in the closing stages, indicating that he is likely to stay the St Leger trip. He makes more appeal than his stablemate, Leading Light, at a similar price, but others in the field, such as Galileo Rock and Talent, represent better value.

Excess Knowledge holds obvious claims and has the sort of profile you would usually look for in a St Leger candidate: a slow-maturing horse in good hands that looks sure to improve for the trip. However, he has been well backed of late and faces a rival in Galileo Rock that also seems tailor-made for the race. The value, in my opinion, lies with Galileo Rock by virtue of his stronger form and larger price, although it has to be acknowledged that Excess Knowledge hasn't had the opportunity to run in a race where posting a big figure was possible. Talent cannot be easily dismissed, even with the Oaks form looking decidedly ropey, and odds of 17.016/1 underestimates her chance. 

Recommendation:
Back Galileo Rock @ 7.513/2 in the St Leger
Back Talent @ 17.016/1 in the St Leger

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