Cheltenham Gold Cup: Jamie Lynch's hawks-eye view

A decade or so ago, there was a moderately successful hurdler named The Mick Weston, owned by Mick Weston. Perhaps that's why he was only moderately successful. Even Marwan Koukash, who likes to keep it in-house and has roughly 41 horses per family member, has enough self-awareness to stop short of naming one Marwan Koukash, or The Marwan Koukash. I have no issue at all with those who choose to permeate their string with part of their name - in fact, I fully intend to roll out Lynch's Flyer, Lynch's Gamble and Sizing Lynch as soon as the PPI money comes through - but it takes some cojones to christen a horse with your full name, in the same way it was uncomfortable when the then chairman Doug Ellis, having got a load of money off the FA and the Aston Villa fans, redeveloped a terrace and renamed it the Doug Ellis Stand. They do a lovely karma in Bradford. 

Eponymous brands, whereby people have pretentiously named creations or indeed discoveries after themselves, are all around us. Ever heard of Adolph Dassler? Most of you will have his work lying somewhere around your house. If I told you he was known as 'Adi', then you'll be able to join the dots and come up with the world leader in leisurewear. The more flush and plush amongst you may have Candido Jacuzzi's invention in some secret corner of your big house, though sales have reportedly dwindled since Paul Nicholls' autobiography. It's slightly different in sport where a certain manoeuvre or skill is often named in honour of the pioneering athlete, but there are still some self-titled rules and systems in play, such as Duckworth-Lewis and Hawk-Eye. 

Developed by Paul Hawkins, hence its name, Hawk-Eye has revolutionised cricket and tennis, and though previously unconsidered, there may be a place for it in racing. As analysts and punters, how many times a day, over various races, do we ask ourselves the 'what if' question? What if 'X' hadn't been hampered by 'Y'? What if 'Z' had got out sooner? What if 'A' hadn't fallen? What if 'B' had been off? Well, just as Hawk-Eye tells an umpire what would have happened without the interference of a bat or pad, maybe it could answer some of those result-defining questions in racing. Not all, but some. 

A computer system that calculates the most statistically likely outcome, judged on speed and trajectory, Hawk-Eye could certainly be used to fill in some of the blanks that inevitably crop up each racing day, or what might have happened had the race gone on for longer - 'in another 100 yards' is a regularly-used phrase in analysis. 

Let's take this season's Lexus Chase, or to give it its full and proper title, this season's thrilling Lexus Chase. It's easy to, as many have, pause the race two furlongs out and say that's the most accurate reflection of the horses' relative abilities, with Flemenstar front and centre. But what if, using Hawk-Eye, we followed their trajectories two furlongs past the line, to the Gold Cup trip. Whether Tidal Bay would have kept finding is anyone's guess, but Sir des Champs would have, and what's incontrovertible is that the two of them would have pulled further and further clear of a plodding First Lieutenant and a faltering Flemenstar. 

I'm being facetious, of course, aware that tactics would have been played very different had the race in fact been two furlongs further, but so too would they if it had been two furlongs shorter, and the Hawk-Eye visualisation of Tidal Bay and Sir des Champs finishing clear of First Lieutenant and Flemenstar is just a means of illustrating how well Sir des Champs shaped with the Gold Cup in mind, more so considering his ragged jumping. 

At this stage, only nine weeks away from Cheltenham, I'd rather back something with improvement to be made in its jumping than in ability or stamina, and it's not a deep-rooted problem with Sir des Champs - if anything his jumping was the feature of his Jewson win at last year's Festival. On the back of that deconstruction of Champion Court and For Non Stop, Sir des Champs was understandably made favourite for the Gold Cup, since when he's won a Grade 1 at Punchestown, finished second to a race-fit Flemenstar over Flemenstar's trip there, and been beaten under a length, despite the worst round of jumping, in the best renewal of the Lexus for years. Sorry, the thrilling Lexus. 

Furthermore, Sir des Champs has so far looked most impressive when the going hasn't been so testing as he's faced this season, and my Hawk-Eye weather predictor forecasts better days and better ground ahead in time for Cheltenham. 

Pointed at the Gold Cup in March, following the career trajectory of each of the main contenders, the prototype Racing Hawk-Eye tells me that, statistically speaking, Bobs Worth is the most likely winner (and, while we're here, that Silviniaco Conti won't stay, that Long Run won't cope with a better lot than in the King George, and that Flemenstar won't even turn up), but Bobs Worth isn't quite so compelling as to get involved at 4.3100/30, likely to be at least that price on the day, on the assumption that he's unlikely to strengthen his claims by winning the Argento Chase at odds-on. 

Sir des Champs, on the other hand, will be shorter than 6.411/2 if he puts it all together in the Irish Hennessy in February. Some will say that his reputation has already been lost, but what got lost more, in amongst the drama of the complexion-changing finish, was his promise in the Lexus. Eye-catching. Hawk-Eye-catching.

Recommendation:
Back Sir des Champs @ 6.411/2 in the Cheltenham Gold Cup

Look out for Brand new features with Timeform Race Passes - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. Find out more at timeform.com.