2,000 Guineas Preview: A new King is crowned

"Everyone probably knows we always thought he was the best horse we've ever had".  Were Aidan O'Brien ever to desert the tried-and-tested dark suit and shades for the more casual personalised t-shirt approach, this is the slogan that I would recommend be emblazoned on the front. Australia, a 525,000 guineas yearling son of Champion race mare Ouija Board, is the latest horse from the Ballydoyle battalion to carry the 'best-ever' burden, a label that, purely in form terms, seems awfully premature. 

Australia undeniably created a fantastic impression during his juvenile campaign, showing marked run-by-run improvement as he finished his light campaign (just three runs) with an emphatic six-length success over Free Eagle in a one-mile Group 3 at Leopardstown, deposing Dermot Weld's charge at the head of the ante-post betting for the Derby. Australia travelled powerfully at Leopardstown, unleashing a potent turn of foot to scorch clear, and he did look a top prospect, but his pedigree - by star sire Galileo out of the much-feted Ouija Board - would suggest that he will ultimately produce his very best over middle distances, and he may well have to be the greatest O'Brien has trained if he is to win a strongly-contested classic at a trip short of his optimum.

Australia, exciting prospect though he is, makes little appeal at odds of 4.57/2 for the Guineas, and he probably isn't even the best betting proposition from his own yard as last year's Coventry Stakes and Dewhurst winner War Command is available to back at a double-figure price despite having established himself as one of last season's leading juveniles. In stark contrast to his scintillating Coventry Stakes success, War Command was only workmanlike in the Dewhurst, but he always looked in control and the rain-softened ground offers some mitigation, if any is needed, for the slightly underwhelming performance. A strongly-run mile on a sound surface is likely to see War Command to maximum effect and his physique - described as a strong, good-topped colt - offers encouragement that he will progress as a three-year-old. He will have to progress if he is to win the Guineas, though, as at Newbury we witnessed the emergence of a potential behemoth of a three-year-old miler: Kingman.

Kingman surged to the head of the Guineas betting with an ultra-impressive win in the Greenham, annihilating a strong-looking field with a performance that suggests he is right out of the top drawer, his strong-travelling style and devastating turn of foot marking him down as a formidable miler. Time analysis of the Greenham backs up the visual impression that the unbeaten Kingman is a Group 1-winner-in-waiting, and, encouragingly, his performances as a two-year-old, where he achieved the rarely-accomplished feat of running to a Timeform rating of 100+ on debut, also confirm that he is one of the most exciting prospects of recent times. 

It would usually be a surprise to find the previous season's leading juvenile, who retains an unbeaten record and limbered up with an authoritative C&D win in the Craven Stakes, available to back at 9.89/1, but Toormore's price is simply a reflection of the quality and potential possessed by Kingman and, to a lesser extent, Australia. Toormore has not failed a test yet, impressing with the way he goes about his races, and were you to build a high-class horse from scratch he would tick all the boxes required. Whether he quite has that spark which distinguishes the very good from the great is something that remains to be seen, however, and the overwhelming feeling is that he won't be able to live with Kingman if he really is the superstar that he looked at Newbury.

Like Toormore, Kingston Hill is also a Group 1-winning unbeaten juvenile, and he will make his return with his yard firing on all cylinders, but this is potentially a very strong renewal of the Guineas and the likelihood is that he will come up short, the manner in which he relished a heavy-ground one-mile contest as a juvenile casting some doubt as to whether he will possess the necessary speed for a race of this nature. 

Spanish raider Noozhoh Canarias is also worthy of consideration, his excellent second in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere rendering concerns regarding the merit of his wide-margin wins in his homeland obsolete. Noozhoh Canarias ought to stay a mile but his free-going nature could leave him a sitting duck to Kingman's explosive change of gear.

To steal a tongue-in-cheek quote from Timeform's Flat Editor, David Johnson: do you back the horse that IS the best Gosden has trained or the one O'Brien says is the best he has? Everything Kingman has produced in his burgeoning career identifies him as a truly outstanding racehorse and he will prove as much given the opportunity in the Guineas. Toormore is a solid proposition, as is War Command, and the latter makes some each-way appeal for those looking for an alternative to Kingman.

Recommendation:
Back Kingman in the 2000 Guineas