Grand National Tips: How to pick the winner

• Peter's guide to a successful Saturdy at Aintree

• Use his strategy to try to pick Grand National winner

• Start by laying the favourite

Everybody loves to pick a winner at the Grand National. There are many ways to do this, but here are some hints that will improve your chances whether you are betting or trading.

Some things stand out if you want to put more science into it and are prepared to dig around the data for previous winners.

I ran some queries on my database, and these trends stood out as a significant factor for winners in the Grand National.

Lay the favourite

Each year there will be more money bet on the favourite than on any other runner in the field. There is a key reason for this. As the hype builds, a favourite emerges from the pack, and its price shortens.

However, that's generally not reflective of its real chance, so favourites have traditionally been terrible value at the Grand National. Since I started actively betting on this race in 2004, favourites have won 5% less than their odds suggest.

That will be no different this year. Lay the favourite.

Recent runners have the momentum

Having a horse that has been out and jumping and racing regularly is a good idea. Finding a winner that has not raced eight weeks or less before, is incredibly difficult.

It's also rare to find a winner that had fallen or unseated their rider more than twice before winning the Grand National.

The ultimate stamina test

Choose a horse that has been running recently and preferably one over a reasonable distance, preferably over three miles.

To win a Grand National, a horse should have proven stamina - this is the longest race of the year with a 40-strong field, and there is no reason to back a horse with doubt over its stamina.

Winners in their prime

Younger horses have a poor track record, and older horses tend to have a poor record, so try to look for horses aged 9 or 10, or around that level.

The more extreme you go out, the less likely you will find a winner within that range.

Study ratings and weights

Horses that are handicapped 137 or higher have a good record.

Lower than that, and they tend to present few opportunities, but not being top-weighted will allow you to find a better selection.

Top weights tend not to win as well.

Bad starters

Check to see if any horses in the Grand National have trouble starting races or often refuse to jump. A few years back, a horse called 'Battle Group' was on my notes. So after I finished trading, I laid him.

I hoped to trade out after the race was underway and he was tailed off. After a false start, they let them go, and Battle Group planted at the start.

Back more than one horse

Using the above tips will help you narrow the field. Backing more than one selection using a strategy such as dutching will further improve your chances.

My data showed that, in order of favouritism, runners one to four tend to be overbet and produce a poor result when dutching. Likewise, at the back of the field, excluding those is better.

Dutching runners five to 20 has consistently produced a result over many years. When dutching, you nominate either your stake or how much you want to win, and Bet Angel does the rest.

Grand race for trading

Rather than having a bet, trading is an excellent way of profiting from horse racing.

Since 2004, I've only lost on one Grand National, and that was ultimately my fault. I fully expect to be able to profit again this year.

As a handicap race, you don't get big moves in the market. The primary mover will often be something that is being heavily tipped, the housewife's favourite or something that is getting a lot of press.

But most of the market will remain stubbornly static, and therefore the best Betfair trading strategy will be to scalp the market in some form.

Make sure you offer your bets to the market, as this will allow you to profit, even if there is no odds movement at all. If you are a Bet Angel user, the 'make market' button will do this for you.

Opportunities galore

One key element that makes this a good race to trade, is the volume and liquidity.

Last year it matched £7.5m at the off on the Betfair Exchange, and this means you can trade it all day! As soon as I wake up on Saturday, I'll start trading until the scheduled start.

The market lights up when the race before the big one finishes, so this is where the best liquidity and trading opportunities are.

Ensure you leave plenty of time to cash out your position, as the market can get frantic in the final few minutes.

Good luck with whatever you choose to do!