Grand National Ante-Post Tips: Tony Calvin has an early 16/1 punt for Aintree

• 2023 Grand National much later than usual

• Gaillard Du Mesnil has the class to shine

• Sportsbook's 16/1 is very fair

It sounds rather obvious, but the first thing you have do when betting ante-post is to minimize the no-shows.

Far too often, I see horses being talked up that have more than one option that week, so you effectively have to land a double to find a winner.

That wouldn't be for me.

Take note of later than usual renewal

Of course, betting on longer-range races like the Grand National is fraught with more difficulty, and the waters are muddied further this year as the race takes place on April 15, far later than usual.

That is five days after the Irish version on April 10, when last year the Fairyhouse contest came nine days after Aintree.

So if you are backing an Irish horse then you have to run the gauntlet of the possibility of some of their contenders being tempted by the more low-hanging fruit at home if conditions are in their horses' favour at the time.

Okay, it isn't Aintree, but it is an infinitely easier race to win and Lord Lariat bagged a not inconsiderable 270,000 euros last April.

I have mentioned that point for two reasons.

One, is that I believe that it could be a factor - and the one firm who has priced up the Irish race has Ain't That A Shame, Gaillard Du Mesnil, Carefully Selected and Mr Incredible as four of their top five in the betting - and, secondly, it is because the horse that immediately interested me finished third at Fairyhouse last season.

The aforementioned Gaillard Du Mesnil.

Has the class and has been given a fair mark

He finished a 7-length third in that race off 154 last season, and the UK handicapper has certainly played pretty fair in giving him a mark of 155 for Liverpool. He is only 3lb shy of the top-rated Delta Work on Timeform's ratings.

While not exactly generous, I'd say connections would have been happy with that assessment given the horse's Grade 1 form this season and last, with his second to Mighty Potter in the Drinmore over 2m4f in December a particularly good effort, as was his Brown Advisory third at Cheltenham last March.

We don't know which race he will go for at Cheltenham next month, with the Brown Advisory and the National Hunt Chase as his options, but it isn't hard to see him going close in either race, and possibly improving in doing so.

And, of course, he will have a longer break from Cheltenham to Aintree this season should he take this route.

You could argue that he didn't get home over 3m5f at Fairyhouse after travelling so well throughout - though he took the second-last home with him, and that would not have helped (he hit 1.511/2 in running) - and we know he has 2m4f Grade 1 pace (he also hit 1.51/2 in the Drinmore).

But we are dealing with another 7yo novice here (after Noble Yeats broke the mould last year), with eight chase runs under his belt, as well as three Grade 1 successes, so he has the class and handicap and potential to shine if he comes here. And there are no penalties for victories from hereon in should he win at Cheltenham.

And it seems Aintree is a younger game in recent years, with none of the last seven winners aged higher than nine, with four of them 8yos, including another novice in the shape of Rule The World in 2016.

Betfair are offering five places and 16/1, which is very fair - some firms are offering just four places - but I am going to suggest you back him win-only at 16s, or at a touch bigger on the exchange if possible.

He is currently on offer at 19.018/1 there, having been available at 22.021/1 and 20/1 in the wider fixed-odds marketplace just as I was about to file this piece, so that was annoying.

But 16s is fair. I am not going mad on the stakes front at all, but he is getting a few quid of my money.