Aintree Tips: Tony Calvin chasing Grand National glory once again with two big odds bets

• TC tries to tip GN winner for second year in row

• Noble Yeats a winner at 85.084/1 in 2022

• Adds 16/1 and 84/1 shot to his National bets

• Old amigo is bet of the day

I tipped Gaillard Du Mesnil at 16/1 for National glory in this column when the weights were announced in February, and personally punted Vanillier at 25/1 after his second in the Bobbyjo later that month.

But it is best to banish past positions from your memory and look at the Grand National afresh once we know the confirmed runners and riders and we have a fair handle on the ground.

It doesn't look like being anywhere near as testing as feared on Monday, and there is probably a fair chance they will water the National course on Friday evening if they have had a drying couple of days. I don't think the ground will be a hindrance to any, though of course some would prefer it bottomless.

The going is currently good to soft, soft in places.

Poet looks exceptionally solid

Grand National - Aintree, 17:15

The Betfair Sportsbook are paying six places on the race and if you asked me for a horse most likely to finish in the first sextet home I would nominate Longhouse Poet, so he is my fresh National bet at 16/1 each-way.

To be honest, I have slightly gone off Gaillard Du Mesnil and Vanillier though I obviously hope one of those cops given my ante-post positions, but Longhouse Poet just looks exceptionally solid.

He comes in here after a good win at Down Royal but it his run in this race last season that is the obvious, and main, pointer to his chance for the stable that won this race with Numbersixvalverde in 2006.

I know the formbook says he was beaten 34 lengths last year but he jumped and travelled like the winner for a long way there - he traded at 4.47/2 in running, apparently, but I swear he went lower - and if his jockey JJ Slevin can keep his exuberance in check here then he could well see out his race that much better.

Anyway, six places is good insurance if he doesn't. He is 22/1 on the Betfair Exchange if you want to back him there win-only.

Adding huge odds Allen as win-only option

Grand National - Aintree, 17:15

That is the sensible selection out of the way, but I am going to knock it out of the ballpark with a biggie, as much as Capodanno and Ain't That A Shame were very much on my shortlist towards the top end of the market, though the latter collapsed in the market on Friday morning (into 17/2 with Sportsbook).

Step forward Enjoy D'allen. He has actually been nibbled at on the exchange in the last 24 hours, having traded at a high of 170.00169/1 on Thursday, but he was still available at 80/1 each-way with the Sportsbook and I was set to tip him there.

Unfortunately he was then cut to 66s and then 40s - and then 28/1 - so that ship well and truly sailed.

However, he is available at 85.084/1 on the Betfair Exchange, so he is a bet there win-only. Any 80 and upwards will be okay (he is will available at 80/1 in the wider marketplace).

He unseated at the first in this race last season, when a 20/1 chance off a 2lb higher mark than this, but hopefully he enjoys better fortunes this time around.

Third in the 2021 Irish Grand National, and ninth last season after trying to take some fences home with him, he has not really troubled the judge this season. But he didn't run badly in the Paddy Power over 3m over Christmas and his run in the Bobbyjo Chase last time, after a two-month break, was obviously a tee-up for this. And it allowed today's jockey Simon Torrens to have a first sit on him.

This is the first time this season that the tongue-tie has gone back on - he has worn it for most of his better efforts - and he just strikes me as the most overpriced horse in the race.

Mexico is a massive player

Maghull Novices' Chase - Aintree, 13:45

It was quite sad to see the 120k Grade 1 novices' chase at 13:45 attract just eight entries on Monday, two of which ran on Thursday, and it is a race that quickly passed me by for betting purposes.

At least six of them were confirmed, though Banbridge was taken out on Friday morning after his win here on Thursday morning.

I doubt many people came away from watching Good Time Jonny win the Pertemps by 3 ¼ lengths thinking he would not have won with an extra 5lb on his back.

So with claimer Liam McKenna again jocked up - he probably gave the horse the ride of the week at Cheltenham - he is surely the one to beat, and the betting agrees as he is the 5/1 favourite with the Sportsbook. At 6/1+ on the exchange, he is probably worth a saver.

Let's go to Mexico

Village Hotels Handicap Hurdle - Aintree, 14:25

However, I am going to renew my betting acquaintance with Mexico in the 14:25.

I have had a fair go on him at big prices on a couple of occasions this season, most recently when he finished eighth in the EBF Final over 2m4f at Sandown, a race in which he could only plug on up the straight from off the pace. He definitely shaped as if he needed further.

Typically, I didn't even spot he was running when stepped up to an extended 2m7f at Uttoxeter last time, the furthest he has gone, as he absolutely hosed up there in a fair time. I got a text informing me after the race and I was not a happy bunny.

The handicapper could have hit him harder than a 7lb rise for that - he saw off two in-form rivals with ridiculous ease - and he is surely a massive player here.

Stuart Edmunds won this race two years ago with the gambled-on Hometown Boy, and I also like the fact that Mexico ran well here back in October, so he has had a sighter of the track.

The Sportsbook opened up at 20/1 on Thursday, but I am very happy with the current 14/1 each way, five places.

He is my bet of the day.

I'd back Bay at a push

The 15-runner 2m4f Grade 1 Mersey Hurdle at 15:00 is one hell of a competitive race and I found myself not warming to any horse in particular, with the possible exception of Springwell Bay at double-figures.

A very good bumper horse, he was given time and a break after disappointing at Cheltenham in November and I liked the way he did it at Ascot and then under a penalty at Wetherby, although he only did what was expected of him at the latter track.

This is clearly a big step up in class though, and I don't have a strong opinion, though he'd be my idea of the bet at around 9/1 on the exchange if pushed.

The same is also true of a tricky Liverpool Hurdle at 15:35. Correction, very tricky.

Between Rock and a hard race

I love my old mucker Dashel Drasher (I am quite surprised to see him tried in first-time cheekpieces) and he may well win this. The problem is that I could seriously make a cogent enough case for all of his rivals, including the 33/1 outsider Proschema, and perhaps most convincing of all, Marie's Rock.

She ran poorly in the mares' hurdle but apparently she was unsuited by the crawl-then-sprint nature of that race and she has a big chance if returning to the form of her Relkeel win.

But she is only 4/1 or so on the exchange in such a deep field and she does have her stamina to prove, too. No bet.

He who dares backs Daly at 33/1

William Hill Handicap Chase - Aintree, 16:15

I am going to take a massive swing with one in the 3m1f handicap chase at 16:15.

The horse in question is 4lb out of the handicap , has not finished closer than within 36 lengths of the winner in any of his four starts this term and is unproven over the trip. And he may want it softer.

Daly Tiger has a very promising profile then. Not.

He may have gone but I trust in the excellent Laura Morgan to have him right on the big day, and at least her charge has been dropped a massive 22lb in the chase ratings this season, from 150 down to 128, though of course he effectively has to race off 132 here being 4lb wrong.

This horse was very good on his day in Ireland, and his run in a 3m Grade 3 chase at Cork last April gives some hope he will last home here.

Granted, he didn't even finish that race, which was won by Melon, but he was still in there pitching when falling two out and Morgan has an exceptionally handicapped horse on her hands if she can get him right. And good to soft ground will at least put less pressure on his stamina.

He is obviously a small-stakes, win-only investment at 34.033/1 or bigger, but I am willing to take the chance at the odds. He is 50/1 and 40/1 in the wider marketplace and I wouldn't go lower than 25/1 on the exchange to get with him given his blow-out profile.

He who dares, Rodney.

The bumper at 18:15 does nothing for me, so you are on your own there, so that's me over and out for Aintree.

Best of luck.