Aintree Tips: 100/1 tip part of Tony Calvin's fantastic five on day two of Grand National Festival

• Five double-figure prices from Tony on day two at Aintree

• Three big prices aimed at the Sefton Hurdle

• A race by race analysis from our main man

Key ground conditions to note

I'll take in Friday at Aintree in chronological order, starting with the Grade 1 Mildmay novices' chase at 13:45, even if it is not on ITV and these types of races often do little for me betting-wise.

I won't be having a punt in this contest either but, as six-runner races go, it is interesting enough I suppose, and the main question to answer for me is whether Complete Unknown can rise to meet the challenge of a few of the opposition who are proven in Grade 1 company, if not necessarily having won in it.

Many thought Gerri Colombe should have won the Brown Advisory with something to spare at Cheltenham and he is the predictable favourite here at around the even money mark, but Complete Unknown looked well worth his chance in this company when strolling home off a mark of 142 in a 2m4f Kempton handicap last time.

The clock gives him something to find and he has yet to conclusively prove his effectiveness over 3m - he had previously been stuffed over it by Galia Des Liteaux (the most likely leader here in what could be a messy pace set-up) at Warwick - but he did look pretty tasty at Kempton and he swerved the white-heat battle of Cheltenham, unlike three of his main market rivals here.

Still, at around 5/1 with the stamina doubt and the relatively lofty level of opposition, he is passed over easily enough.

Oh, I should mention we are looking at good to soft now for the rest of the week.

The rain that fell up to Thursday morning was at the lower end of what was forecast (they got 5mm on Wednesday), and not much more is now due. I wouldn't be massively surprised if they watered the National course on Friday evening now.

Supreme Trial winner the bet

The 2m4f handicap hurdle at 14:20 is far more like it and Camprond and Dargiannini have obvious chances - the less rain that falls for the former the better his chance, clearly - and I wouldn't rule out my old mate West To The Bridge at a much bigger price, too.

I toyed with giving Benson another chance after he ran no race in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham but Fennor Cross was my final answer at 13.012/1 or bigger win-only on the exchange.

He is also 12/1 with the Sportsbook, who are paying six places, if you want to back him there.

He beat some fair sorts at Cheltenham in the autumn, including when winning a Supreme Trial in November, but he was put away afterwards for an optimistic attempt at the Festival-opener, a race in which he started at 80/1 (and a Betfair SP of 159.52)

He got taken off his feet there and jumped poorly but he showed a bit of grit to stick to his task and be beaten just under 22 lengths - he looked booked for a tailed-off last for much of the way - and a handicap mark of 133 (though 3lb higher than his Irish level) and a step up in trip could see him be very competitive here.

He seems ground-versatile and, considering he had good Flat form over 1m5f - he was progressive in that sphere in 2022 - I do think this 2m4f trip promises to suit, with Ben Harvey, with a strike rate of 18 per cent this season, taking off 5lb.

The Grade 1 2m novices' hurdle at 14:55 is another devilishly hard race to call, although the fixed-odds betting suggests it is firmly odds-on that one of Found A Fifty, Inthepocket or Luccia (it has been confirmed this week that she indeed did have a poor prep going into Cheltenham) oblige.

You can obviously make a clear case for all three, and you have to have a very forgiving nature to side with Cheltenham disappointments such as Tahmuras, Pembroke and Rare Edition, even if you are compensated for them price-wise, so I am inclined to leave the race alone.

It's a tough one to call and I am not going to force it.

We are one shy of three places for each-way punters in the 2m4f Grade 1 Marsh Chase at 15:30, which immediately puts you on the back foot from a tipping/betting perspective in a race where all seven have their chance.

I could waffle on and on and state the obvious - Fakir D'Oudairies and Pic D'Orhy are the form horses, Millers Bank is probably overpriced on his Peterborough run and progressive handicapper Fugitif could bridge the class barrier etc - but the conclusion would still be the same. No bet.

A trio of big prices over National fences

The spectacle of the day is the Topham, with a full field of 30 over the National fences at 16:05, and Fantastikas stood out at the opening prices early on Wednesday. And the current ones.

The Sportsbook's initial, industry stand-out 40/1 surprised me, and even more so than the price is still available, as 25/1 would have satisfied me. Back him at 40s each way, six places.

I tipped him in the Ultima, despite not being totally solid on his stamina over 3m+, and I was happy enough as he was coming to vie for the lead approaching 3 out, only for him to collide with Harper's Brook on landing, which seemed to immediately knock the stuffing out of him and end his chances.

He immediately beat the retreat from there on in, anyway.

So he possibly ran a lot better than the form book would suggest and I do like the angle of him dropping down to the 2m5f trip for the first time since his third to L'Homme Presse in the Dipper last year.

And he also ran a bit better than it appeared when he was beaten 47 lengths over these fences in the Becher over 3m2f back in December, a trip over which I am convinced he doesn't truly stay.

The one annoying thing is that he was dropped 4lb to a gift of a mark of just 128 after the Ultima, but he is 3lb out of the weights here with the 157-rated Haut En Couleurs being confirmed on Wednesday morning.

But an effective mark of 131 is still 11lb lower than he was rated at the start of the season, and I reckon he will give you a very good spin from the bottom of the weights. No ground or stamina concerns here.

The 3m Grade 1 Sefton Hurdle at 16:40 has a lot of depth to it, so I'd be inclined again to look away from the more obvious candidates such as Absolute Notions, Stay Away Fay, Iroko and Maximillian. They have strong claims, no doubt about it, but their odds pretty much reflect that.

I am going to play two against the field, starting with Apple Away, from the stable who took this race with 66/1 poke Ahoy Senor in 2021.

The only mare in the race, she comes in here as a rapid improver, seeing off dual subsequent scorer Jet Legs off a mark of 113 at Ayr and then making all in good time in a Listed race at Doncaster, doing so under a rider unable to claim his 5lb, beating a 6lb-higher rated rival off levels by nearly 5 lengths.

Furthermore, I loved the way she picked up again after nearly coming to grief after a bad mistake at the last - she could have been forgiven for tying up on the run-in there - and, given the 7lb sex allowance and her progressive profile, she looks a bet at 13.012/1 or bigger to me. She is 10s with the Sportsbook, who are paying four places.

And no way am I going to allow Moka De Vassy to go untipped at 100/1 each way, four places, with the Sportsbook.

He was reasonably strong in the market for the Pertemps last month, but fell at the second, and he just strikes me as a 5yo with a lot more to give.

I know he is rated just 124 but he shaped well when third in his qualifier at Exeter, he had caught the eye when a staying-on fifth over an extended 2m4f in a Ballymore Trial the time before, and he is unexposed over this trip.

I'll happily take my chances at the price. Anything north of 50s suits me, in fact, with the extra place on offer.

And I make no apologies for adding in a third tip in the race, namely Hurricane Bay at 50/1 each way. It is simply the wrong price.

He actually traded odds-on in-running when a 4 ¾ length third to Maxmillian and Stay Away Fay in the 3m River Don, and he won as he liked at 4/9 back down to 2m3f at the same track last time.

The fact that the ground is better than I expected (currently at least) is a bonus for him - he has never raced on anything worse than good to soft - and I can't work out why he is so big. Again, 25/1+ would satisfy me.

The 22-runner 2m conditional jockeys and amateur riders' handicap hurdle at 17:15 takes some solving and I am not sure I am up to the job.

I am going to use my Get Out Of Jail card and say it falls outside of my terrestrial brief.

Good luck.