Punchestown Wednesday Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 66/1 Rock to cause a shock

• Good pace and big field an ideal scenario

• Drying ground will help

• Rock On Seamie is overpriced at Punchestown

Has his ideal scenario

Punchestown 15:40: Rock On Seamie 0.5pt e/w 66/1

Rock On Seamie is one of the outsiders for the opening race on the second day of the Punchestown Festival but I think he has the potential to run better than his big price suggests given the circumstances of this race.

He ran very well from 8lb out of the handicap when third to Effernock Fizz at Killarney in August and wasn't disgraced next time at Listowel despite being trapped out wide throughout and seeming to hang right. He ran respectably again on his final start over hurdles at Tipperary before flopping on unsuitably heavy ground on the flat Galway.

Rock On Seamie is a smooth traveller who needs to be delivered late, as shown when he travelled all over the field at Cork in May last year before ending up being beaten eight lengths as he got to the front far too soon. The big field and likely strong pace today should allow Tommy Brett to get plenty of cover and try to execute those tactics and the drying ground is in his favour too as he would ideally want good ground.

He also has an advantage of coming into this race fresh from a break and he showed last year that he can run well off an absence when narrowly beaten into third at Limerick after 147 days off.

It might be that he will show his best during the summer when the ground is very quick and he will need to get luck in running but I think his chance has been overlooked and any 33/1 or bigger appeals.