Kevin Blake: I'm staying loyal to 8/1 Al Riffa in Sunday's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

• Kevin Blake gives his Group 1 Arc de Triomphe verdict

• The time is right for 8/19.00 Al Riffa to shine

• Place £10 bet on any sport on the Betfair Exchange to start your Free Bet Streak

The Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe takes centre stage on a glittering card at Longchamp on Sunday. Opinions will differ of course, but for me it is the greatest all-aged race in all of Europe.

The prestige, the setting, the competitiveness, the race has it all. It can be trusted to attract a big field including an array of international runners and that is very much the case this year. Indeed, this year's renewals represents one of the most open renewals of the race in many years.

Ground set to be good or good to soft

First and foremost, the ground. Having spent more time than most being somewhat fixated by rainfall patterns around Paris in the build-up to the racing there over the years, including the monitoring of a webcam that sits halfway up the Eiffel Tower and points in the direction of Longchamp (yep, that sad), I can tell you that Parisian rain is as enigmatic beast. It can be very localised and trying to predict how much will fall at the track is challenging.

The forecast for this weekend has changed quite a bit in the last number of days, but at the time of writing we look to be heading towards somewhere between (on our scale) good-to-soft and good ground. However, there remains the possibility of some light rain on Sunday morning that could bring it back just a bit towards good-to-soft.

Time will tell how it pans out, but for the purposes of this preview I am working on the basis of ground just a shade on the easy side of good.

Pace may not suit hold-up horses

Next, the pace. Haya Zark (13) usually races prominently and ran well when making much of the running in the Prix d'Ispahan in May. Look De Vega (8) has been racing prominently and made the running on his latest start. He is likely to go forward and look to sit prominently. Sosie (5) has been racing prominently in recent starts and is likely to look to get at least prominent from his good draw.

Bluestocking (3) can race prominently or a little further back, but is likely to want to make use of her good draw and get handy. Los Angeles (10) has generally been ridden prominently and while he was ridden more quietly when dropped to a mile-and-a-quarter last time, a return to more prominent tactics is likely here.

Continuous (14) was generally ridden with patience last season, but has been more forward in both his starts this year including when making the running in the Prix Foy last time. He might well push forward to try and beat his wide draw. Sevenna's Knight (12) stays further than this and has often raced prominently over longer trips, but has been ridden a little quieter in his last couple of starts and seems unlikely to try and get forward in this class of company.

Now, there haven't been too many steadily-run Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe's over the years, but it should be clear from the above that there isn't much in terms of regular front runners in this year's race and there isn't an obvious pace maker either. There will be a significant number of the runners that will be desperate for the pace to be at least average in front of them, but pinpointing where it might come from isn't easy.

Though, every set of connections in the race will be looking at the same pace picture we are and with the stakes being so high, there is always a chance that one or more of them will seize the day and change to more forward tactics to try and get an advantageous position. However, that is dangerously in the realm of hope rather than expectation and with that in mind, I'm fearful for the prospects of those that will be held up in the back third of the field.

Al Riffa coming right at the correct time

So, what's going to win? I always consider the Arc to be a marvellous betting race as proper horses that can have good cases made for them always go off at big prices every year. It goes without saying that it doesn't always work out, but it is a race that one can always get their teeth into.

One that I believe is overpriced is the Aidan O'Brien-trained Continuous, but I'm not going to pretend that I'm anything but one-eyed for the Joseph O'Brien-trained Al Riffa, so I won't beat around the bush.

While it has taken the wider public some time to buy into the four-year-old, he has looked an exceptional prospect from the very early stages of his career. Considering Al Riffa stood 16-3hh and weighed 520kg as a two-year-old, it was genuinely staggering to me that he was able to quicken from last-to-first under Dylan Browne McMonagle to win the National Stakes at the Curragh on just his third start and first outing outside of maiden company.

For him to be able to show that level of ability at that stage of his career when so little had been asked of him pinpointed him as a potentially top-class performer.

Unfortunately, having been trained all spring for the Irish 2,000 Guineas, a minor illness ruled him out of the race and indeed the first half of the season against his peers. This denied him the experience of those runs that he so needed having won a Group 1 despite not learning a whole lot in his races the previous season. That meant that when he was ready to make his seasonal reappearance he had to do it against hardened older horses in the International Stakes at the Curragh.

In need of the run and caught on the hop by an enterprising front-running performance from Mashhoor, he had to settle for a well-held second on the day.

With that first run out of the way, not for the first or last time he was set a very tough task in travelling to France to face their unbeaten rising star Ace Impact in the Prix Guillaume d'Ornano. Ace Impact duly won, coming from a poor position in rear to beat Al Riffa by ¾-length. All of the post-race focus was on Ace Impact and his Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe credentials, but I couldn't believe that so little attention was being paid to Al Riffa's run.

He came from a similar position to Ace Impact and finished off only fractionally slower than what we now know was one of the fastest middle-distance horses of recent years. Indeed, he was coming back at Ace Impact at the line.

To underline the view that Al Riffa was still very much learning on the job, Christophe Soumillon jumped off him and commented that he felt like a horse that was only having the second run of his life, that he was still learning and had he been sharp enough to take a handier position that he felt he would have won. It is worth remembering that no horse ever got closer to Ace Impact in a race than Al Riffa did that day.

That run had everyone involved fired up for his next outing in the Irish Champion Stakes and then a rematch with Ace Impact in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, but a slight setback on the eve of the Irish Champion Stakes meant he missed that race and wouldn't be ready in time for the Arc. It was a bitterly disappointing end to what had been a truncated season for him, but with him being the physical specimen that he is, the hopes were that all the patience would be rewarded during his four-year-old campaign in 2024.

Having come through the winter looking exceptionally well, Al Riffa started his campaign in the Prix Ganay at Longchamp. His weight was quite a bit higher than it had been for his two starts as a three-year-old, but it is typical for a colt to put on more weight from three-to-four than they do from two-to-three. In what was a messy race, he produced a fine turn of foot from a disadvantageous position and looked set to win only to take a big blow inside the final furlong and flatten out close home. Dylan was thrilled with him and felt the run would crown him in fitness terms.

His next start came in the slightly left-field surroundings of Saratoga in the Manhattan Stakes. It is a Grade 1 race worth $1m and a quirk in the conditions meant that Al Riffa received 6lb from all his main rivals, so it was deemed to be worth a shot. The additional thought was that testing his ability to handle a track like Saratoga on fast ground would also be an examination of his future Cox Plate credentials, much like it had for State Of Rest when he won the Saratoga Derby.

Unfortunately, Saratoga didn't go nearly as well for Al Riffa. Having been a couple of lengths slow to start, he was quickly in a poor position and was never able to get into the race, finishing off quite well to be beaten just 3¾ lengths. Johnny Velazquez felt that the firm ground wasn't an issue for him, with it more so being the very tight bends that hindered him. Win or learn. There was a lot of learning done that day.

The trip to Saratoga obviously involves a lot of travel, but also spending quite a bit of time either side of the race training in Saratoga, so plans were fluid for Al Riffa when he returned to Ireland after what had been quite a few weeks away from home. The Eclipse Stakes wasn't Plan A by any means, but he was in such good form in the week before the race that he started to become considered for it and was eventually declared to take on the mighty City Of Troy.

Again, the market was quite dismissive of Al Riffa as he continued to struggle to capture wider acclaim, but he would soon start to rectify that. Dropped in by Dylan Browne McMonagle, the pace wasn't as strong and City Of Troy was more forward than anticipated which left Al Riffa somewhat out of position, but having turned into the straight it was clear that Dylan still had a lot of horse under him.

The pair produced a great finishing effort and briefly looked like they might get to City Of Troy, but the big move he made to get into the race most likely cost him close home and City Of Troy was able to hold him off. While the race was roundly knocked as being below-standard at the time, subsequent events have changed that perception, with the form having worked out notably well since. As well as that, the promise in Al Riffa's run with a view to him finally stepping up to a mile-and-a-half was obvious.

Recent victory is strong form

That day finally came a month later in the Grosser Preis von Berlin at Hoppegarten. On what was beautiful good ground, Al Riffa and Dylan Browne McMonagle followed the leader on the inside, eased into the clear early in the straight and quickly blew away their opposition to win by five lengths.

It had been a little while in coming, but it served to underline and emphasise all the previous promise he had shown as well as confirming the long-standing view that a mile-and-a-half was going to be his best trip.

That leads us to Sunday. Al Riffa has drawn stall nine and will be ridden for the first time by Yutaka Take who will be bidding to crown his legendary riding career by winning the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe for the first time.

The time for talking is over. The draw is satisfactory, the ground will be suitable with or without further rain. Now, all we can hope for is a kind spin around and for him to have every chance to show what those closest to him have always believed he can do.

My own interest is obvious and I know that quite a few listeners and viewers to the Racing Only Bettor Podcast took my advice when I suggested that 66/1 about him for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe was a wild price after his comeback run in the Prix Ganay, so hopefully we can all have a result to remember on Sunday.

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