1,000 Guineas Tips: Katie Midwinter's runner-by-runner guide for the fillies' Classic at Newmarket on Sunday

• Katie Midwinter provides a runner-by-runner guide for the 1000 Guineas

• The fillies' compete for the Classic on the Rowley Mile this Sunday

• Desert Flower tops the market at 10/111.91

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Chantilly Lace

25/126.00 to win the 1,000 Guineas

Purchased for 375,000gns from Tattersalls Book 1 as a yearling, Lope De Vega filly Chantilly Lace has raced only once to date, when winning a heavy ground Salisbury novice event, beating subsequent winner Char comfortably by a length-and-a-half.

On that occasion, the Ralph Beckett-trained prospect displayed ability, justifying odds of 6/42.50 to make a successful debut. This a huge step up in class in likely contrasting conditions, but Chantilly Lace comes into the race completely unexposed with an attractive profile.

Well-related, Chantilly Lace is the ninth foal out of Listed-placed Seeking Solace, making her a half-sister to dual Group One winner Ten Sovereigns. Although she is thrown into deep waters here on her second start, she is difficult to rule out as she is mostly an unknown quantity who is bred to be good.

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Desert Flower

10/111.91 favourite to win the 1,000 Guineas

Unbeaten filly Desert Flower is the one to beat on juvenile form in this Classic, having recorded four impressive successes during her debut campaign, including when landing the Fillies' Mile over course-and-distance in impressive fashion.

The Charlie Appleby-trained daughter of Night Of Thunder beat her rivals by a combined distance of over 16-lengths last year and also won the Group Two May Hill Stakes before achieving Group One glory in the autumn.

Out of three-time Group Two winner Promising Run, Desert Flower is a half-sister to Group Three winner Aablan and has proven herself on the Rowley Mile previously, at the highest level. There could be further progression to come from this exciting Godolphin filly, who was able to make a significant impression as a juvenile.

Desert Flower is deserving of her place at the head of the market and is difficult to oppose considering she has an unblemished record so far and her ceiling of ability is yet to be reached.

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Duty First

10/111.00 to win the 1,000 Guineas

Recently supplemented for this Classic following a hugely impressive success in a Group Three on her return to action this spring, Archie Watson-trained Duty First defied odds of 33/134.00 to claim her first black-type success in the hands of Hollie Doyle at Newbury. She powered away from her rivals in tremendous fashion over the 7f trip to pull three-and-a-quarter-lengths clear of runner-up Hey Boo, whilst still showing signs of greenness and inexperience.

The daughter of Showcasing, who fetched 370,000gns from Tattersalls Book 1 as a yearling, appeared to have plenty left in reserves at the line, suggesting this step up to a mile could bring with it further improvement, although her dam's side of the family is mostly speed focused.

Out of a 6f winning mare in Dream Dana, Duty First is a half-sister to Army Ethos, once second to River Tiber in the Coventry Stakes. Her grand-dam, Lidanna, achieved multiple black-type successes over the sprinting trips including two Group Three contests, and went on to produce Listed winning Yaa Wayl and Listed-placed Lidanski, dam of Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp winner Wizz Kid.

Duty First has clearly inherited plenty of speed and was able to gain valuable experience as a juvenile, placing second in a Goodwood Group Three before finishing third in the Rockfel Stakes here. Whilst she has plenty to find with Desert Flower on debut form, she is far from the finished product but has raw natural ability and could have a part to play.

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Elwateen

20/121.00 to win the 1,000 Guineas

Saeed bin Suroor-trained Elwateen has only been seen once on a racecourse to date, when finishing strongly to beat Orchid over 7f at Kempton last August. This is a significant step up in class, but the daughter of Dubawi did her best work late on that day, suggesting a step up to a mile should suit, and she is entitled to improve for her first experience in a race.

Although she lacks experience in comparison with a number of her rivals here, Elwateen has already proven she possesses ability and there should be more to come from her. She is out of a classy mare in Group One winner Tawkeel, who was able to win five of her six career starts with her only defeat coming in when beaten a length-and-three-quarters by Tarnawa in the Prix de l'Opera.

This is a stiff task on only her second start, but Elwateen comes into the race completely unexposed and if she has inherited her dam's ability, she could be capable of springing a surprise.

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Flight

33/134.00 to win the 1,000 Guineas 

Flight showed a consistent level of form during her debut campaign last term, winning once and placing in each of her other four races, including at Group Two level when behind Desert Flower at Doncaster. She finished third to Merrily in the Oh So Sharp Stakes, failing to finish as strongly as her reopposing rivals but achieving black-type by performing with credit.

On debut, she was beaten four-lengths by subsequent Listed winner and Group Three-placed Flaming Stone, therefore there's plenty of substance to Flight's juvenile form, however, whether or not she will be able to see out the mile strongly enough to have a say at the top level remains to be seen.

In the closing stages of her two previous outings, when behind talented fillies that she is likely to face again here, Flight has lacked a finishing kick. On pedigree, she should be able to stay a mile considering her dam, Run Wild, a daughter of Amaron, was able to claim Listed honours over a mile-and-a-quarter as well as running well at Group Two and Group Three level, respectively, over a mile, including in testing conditions at Deauville.

By Siyouni, who has produced numerous middle distance types, it's plausible that the Ollie Sangster-trained filly could improve on her stamina capabilities with age and Flight is deserving of her place in the line up.

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Hey Boo

66/167.00 to win the 1,000 Guineas 

Jack Channon-trained Hey Boo made a successful debut at Chelmsford as a three-year-old in February, before doubling up at the same venue. Then upped into Group Three company at Newbury, the daughter of Iffraaj was able to outrun odds of 40/141.00 to finish a three-and-a-quarter-length second to Duty First, staying on strongly whilst proving her credentials at Stakes level.

This requires another step forward, but she is on an upward trajectory and remains unexposed and has class in her pedigree being out of Listed-placed Tricksy Spirit, who has also produced a Group Three winner in Juniper Berries. There should be further improvement to come from this filly, who appears to be an exciting prospect.

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Lake Victoria

3/14.00 to win the 1,000 Guineas

Home-bred Coolmore filly Lake Victoria emerged on the scene at the Curragh last June when narrowly beating Red Letter to make a successful debut in the hands of Ryan Moore. She was swiftly upped into Group Three company and obliged at odds of 11/82.38 in the Sweet Solera Stakes, beating Mountain Breeze by two-lengths, before achieving Group One success in the Moyglare Stud Stakes.

The daughter of Frankel was able to land a hat-trick of Group One victories over 6f, 7f and a mile, respectively, when impressing at Del Mar at the Breeders' Cup, having previously claimed Cheveley Park Stakes honours at this venue. 

The Aidan O'Brien-trained filly, who is out of dual Group One winning sprinter Quiet Reflection, enjoyed an exceptional debut campaign in which she emerged as one of the best of that crop of juveniles at Ballydoyle. She proved herself over a range of distances, displaying enough speed to win at the highest level as a sprinter but also over a mile, making her a solid contender for this Classic.

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Red Letter

5/16.00 to win the 1,000 Guineas

Ger Lyons-trained Red Letter was narrowly beaten by the excellent Lake Victoria on debut last term before winning her maiden convincingly in her following outing.

In her third and final run of her debut season, the daughter of Frankel finished fourth in the hotly contested Moyglare Stud Stakes, sticking to the task well having been slightly short of room as the race developed, beaten only a length-and-a-half by eventual winner Lake Victoria at the line.

Whilst she must reverse form with her reopposing rival, she has little to find with the Ballydoyle filly on form, and was perhaps the horse to take out of the race when the pair first met at the Curragh.

On that occasion, Red Letter was in a less favourable position with the eventual winner able to get first run on the eventual second. Red Letter quickened effectively to bridge the gap with Lake Victoria in the final furlong and would likely have finished in front in another stride or two. 

Out of a 6f winning daughter of Dark Angel, Red Impression, Red Letter's maternal grand-dam Purissima is a half-sister to Group One winning Etoile Montante, who was once third in the Poule d'Essai des Pouliches, the French equivalent to the 1,000 Guineas.

It would be no surprise to see Red Letter pose a threat on only her fourth career start as she has the ability to be competitive at this level on form shown to date.

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Remaat

66/167.00 to win the 1,000 Guineas

Kodiac filly Remaat, who is out of Listed-placed mare Savaanah, could only manage sixth when sent off at odds of 9/25.50 on debut for Andrew Balding, but was able to improve for that opening run to finish second to subsequent Group Three third and Listed second Tales Of The Heart, before winning her maiden comfortably on the July Course.

Although she has plenty to find on juvenile form, her creditable third in the Nell Gwyn Stakes when staying on well having run a solo race on the near side, was impressive and if she can take another step forward she could outrun her odds. That effort can be upgraded and she's entitled to improve for her opening run of the season, therefore Remaat cannot be completely ruled out.

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Simmering

50/151.00 to win the 1,000 Guineas

A 70,000gns yearling purchase, Ollie Sangster-trained filly Simmering enjoyed a brace of successes as a juvenile, firstly at Group Three level in the Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot before claiming Group Two honours in the Prix du Calvados at Deauville.

In France, the Too Darn Hot filly beat Fraise Des Bois, who subsequently finished a length-and-a-quarter third to now 112-rated Electrolyte in the Prix Eclipse, by three-lengths but could only manage fourth on her return to the country, when three-lengths behind third-placed Exactly in the Group One Prix Marcel Boussac, with Bedtime Story further behind in fifth.

On her penultimate start of her debut campaign, Simmering finished a length-and-a-quarter second to Lake Victoria in the Moyglare Stud Stakes, proving her capabilities at Group One level and she had also previously placed in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot when only three-parts-of-a-length behind Fairy Godmother.

Simmering, who is out of Cashla Bay, a daughter to Group Three winner Rose Blossom, was well-beaten on her return to action at Newbury this spring, on quicker ground than required according to her trainer's representative. This could be a problem going into this Classic considering the forecast is mostly dry, however, she does have winning Group form on good to firm ground and her second at Group One level was on ground described as good, too.

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Verdict:

Likeable chestnut filly DESERT FLOWER was hugely impressive as a juvenile and can continue her progression in this quest for Classic glory.

Lake Victoria and Red Letter both demand respect, particularly the former based on her exceptional debut campaign, whilst Duty First possesses a huge amount of raw ability and could have a part to play, but may be one for later down the line as she's up against some professional rivals here.

Prediction:

1. Desert Flower

2. Lake Victoria

3. Red Letter

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