Dublin Racing Festival Tips

Alan Dudman's Dublin Racing Festival Antepost Tips: Standby for the Lossie and Lucie show

Rich Ricci
The Ricci-owned Lossiemouth and Sainte Lucie are two potential stars of the DRF

Alan Dudman takes an early look at the Dublin Racing Festival for next month and looks forward to some mouthwatring clashes with three tips for the meeting...

  • All of the eight Grade One races priced up on the Sportsbook

  • Mullins completed a clean sweep of the top level races last year at odds of 6,505/1

  • Alan Dudman has three early tips for the Dublin Racing Festival for next month


Mullins swept Grade 1s in 2024 and holds aces again

A litany of stars are entered for the two-day Dublin Racing Festival which commences on February 1st and it is a meeting which Willie Mullins loves just as much as James Joyce did Nora Barnacle.

Indeed, I can imagine Mullins writing a letter (in Joyce's famous red ink) opining his love for the two days to the racecourses to keep their prize money warm for him until next month.

The volume of winners for Closutton is ridiculous - a clean sweep of all the eight Grade 1 races last year didn't even give the others a sniff of a chance with Dancing City, Kargese, Il Etait Temps, Galopin Des Champs, Fact To File, Ballyburn, El Fabiolo and State Man all part of the 2024 riotously talented squad.

All of the Grade 1 races are now priced up on the Sportsbook and let's deal with how Mullins is faring.

Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle: Final Demand 3/14.00 favourite for Willie Mullins.

Gannon's City Recovery Juvenile Hurdle: Sainte Lucie 5/23.50 favourite for Willie Mullins.

Goffs Irish Arkle: Majborough 8/111.73 favourite, Ile Atlantique second favourite 3/14.00 both Willie Mullins.

Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup: Galopin Des Champs 8/111.73 favourite, Fact To File 7/24.50 second favourite, Embassy Gardens third fav 7/18.00 - all Mullins.

Ladbrokes Novice Chase: Ballyburn 5/42.25 favourite, WM.

Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle; 3/1 joints Kaid D'authie and Kopek Des Bordes, both himself.

Ladbrokes Dublin Chase: Energumene and Gaelic Warrior both 2/13.00 favourites. Him again.

Irish Champion Hurdle: 11/82.38 Brighterdaysahead favourite. What? No Mullins? Don't be silly, Lossiemouth 11/82.38 joint too.

At least there are some British possible runners thanks to the hardy Warren Greatrex, who can count a DRF win in the past with La Bague Au Roi, while his Good And Clever and Quantock Hills are possibles for the Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle and Gannon's City Recovery & Recycling Services Juvenile Hurdle. Harry Fry has entered Boothill for the Dublin Chase, although Barry Fry would have more chance of winning that.

Dysart Enos is entered with the Irish Champion Hurdle for Fergal O'Brien, James Owen has East India Dock in the Juvenile race and Here Comes Georgie is in the Irish Arkle for Pat Neville.

No Nicky Henderson, Dan Skelton, Paul Nicholls, Hobbs, Venetia et all. But why would they? Taking on Mullins in his backyard is akin to having a karaoke contest against Elvis (presumably singing "We gotta win this race").

The Mullins Grade One clean sweep returned at odds of nearly 6,505/1, a similar treble ante-post with Final Demand, Sainte Lucie, Majborough, Galopin, Ballyburn, Kaid D'authie, Gaelic Warrior, and Lossiemouth pays 2678/1 for an eight-fold.

Willie said 12 months ago of his winners: "It's sort of a shock. They all had good chances but it doesn't usually work out that way." It normally does.


Where can Elliott take a scalp?

Gordon Elliott's best chance of winning at least one the Grade 1s is with the brilliant Brighterdaysahead in the Irish Champion Hurdle on the Sunday at Leopardstown for which she is 11/82.38 joint alongside Lossiemouth.

She was 30L ahead of a Willie Mullins 10-year-old with State Man a further length behind in third who performed nowhere near his rating of 169 although State Man was closer to her in the Morgiana previously but was outstayed by Brighterdaysahead who jumped a lot better than her Down Royal win.

I cannot take a 30 length win at face value, and if she does it again, she's a superstar beyond even her current gilded status, but I am more inclined to go with Lossiemouth who wasn't disastrous when losing to Constitution Hill in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton, with the ground officially good.

Constitution Hill recorded a good timefigure, while not quite as supreme as his Supreme win, it was bang there with the very best of his efforts from 150 years ago (I jest), while Lossiemouth's ears were back early and she was not travelling at all in the race.

Give her some proper soft and heavy and less of a speed test and I think Brighterdaysahead will have a proper race on and she's going to be one of my bets.


Sainte Lucie can land odds-against win for Mullins

Sainte Lucie was one of the standout performances of December winning her Punchestown race by 11 lengths on her first start for Willie Mullins, and again, highlighting their buying power from France in continually identifying the top talent from across the channel.

"Paul was very happy with her and loved the way she galloped through that ground," said the trainer after the emphatic win.

"I'd imagine we'll be going for the top events with her. She looks top drawer."

Sainte Lucie's Punchestown win showed her to possess an exceptional burst at the end with 14.41 and 14.82 closing furlongs and the last four at a finishing speed of 110%. That was in the face of some raw jumping and I expect her to improve a ton with her technique up into top company.

She earned a Timeform figure of 125p for that (up from 114), although at the moment East India Dock for James Owen has his very own wide margin win to his name with an 18 lengths romp at Cheltenham in the Triumph Hurdle Trial in November on good ground, as it was good for a Wincanton win also.

East India Dock was a smart runner on the Flat for James Fanshawe and has a TF 136p rating from Cheltenham, the best figure in that race since 2017 and the best performance from a British juvenile and Ireland at the time by almost a stone.

But it's whether you go with an ex-flattie against a crack Mullins French import and East India Dock is 6/17.00 on the Sportsbook but hopefully James Owen will have a go. Someone has to.


Ballyburn the one surprise

Ballyburn is not in the Irish Arkle (for which Majborough is odds-on) and instead has the 2m6f entry for the Ladbrokes Novice Chase, and while nowhere near a recovery mission, perhaps Mullins actually does fear a British chaser after Ballyburn's thumping at the hands of the brilliant Sir Gino and will have the Festival Brown Advisory over 3m now at the forefront of his wily mind.

Gaelic Warrior, so sublime at Cheltenham last season is taken to beat the returning star from exile Energumene in the Ladbrokes Dublin Chase.

Both are at 2s on the Sportsbook and that price earned by Energumene courtesy of his 10 length in the Hilly Way is risky for me - as he was back after his near 600-day absence.

On Gaelic Warrior, Mullins said at his stable tour media day: "Last year we were trying to make Gaelic Warrior into a three-miler and I had no problem with him going three miles, but he ended up winning the Arkle Novices' Chase on his first attempt over fences at two miles."

The defeat against Solness in the Christmas edition of the Grade 1 Paddy's Rewards Club Chase at Leopardstown looked very much a comeback run with Solness allowed to dictate and search for the dry strips of ground, and we will see a different Gaelic Warrior I am sure with not only different tactics, but different conditions. Heavy won't be a problem.

After all, his Cheltenham win last term earned a spectacular Timeform figure of 167+ - the best performance by a novice all season. The threshold for a top class horse for the Halifax sages is 165, and we hopefully we see a top class performance from a sublime talent.


Now read the latest from Paul Nicholls in his exclusive blog here!


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