Epsom Derby and Oaks

Derby Racing Tips: How to trade on Saturday's big race at Epsom

  • Peter Webb
  • Published on
  • Updated on
  • 4:00 min read
Horse racing at Epsom
Peter has never lost on the Derby

The Betfair Exchange has a special relationship with the Epsom Derby meeting, as Peter Webb explains in his guide to trading on Saturday's big race...

  • Epsom Derby is at earlier time of 13:30 on Saturday

  • Big race perfect for trading on Betfair Exchange

  • Peter has never lost on the Derby - find out why


The Epsom Derby is one of my favourite races of the year for several reasons. But it's also a reminder how Betfair has transformed the opportunities you have to profit from this high-profile race.

Betfair began with Epsom

If you are a Betfair newbie you may not know that the Oaks at the Epsom Derby meeting was Betfair's first market way back when they started in June 2000. Horse racing was the very first sport to be traded on the Betfair.

"From memory, I think about £3,400 was matched," former director Mark Davies said about the very first market on Betfair.

The launch of the Betfair Exchange went pretty much unnoticed, but things would never be the same again for people betting on horse racing.

The Derby on Saturday will match millions and give people the opportunity to back, lay and trade their way to a potential profit on the big race.

Not just great prices

There are some significant benefits to using a betting exchange during a big race meeting.

You will get cracking odds, improving your chance of winning in the long term. But you can also do some very clever things, such as asking for odds that are not available or creating bets that will profit if any of several horses win.

But the most innovative way to profit on a betting exchange is to do some Betfair trading.

Trading the odds

I'll always remember the wonder of discovering horse racing and the confusion at how nobody seemed to know what the correct odds should be for a race.

One of the unique aspects of betting on horse racing is that the odds move around a lot before the race starts.

Epsom action on Oaks Day 2022.jpg

By backing and laying at different odds during this period, we can profit from the difference between the two odds. Even better than that, we can 'hedge' our profit to win regardless of who goes on to win the race.

But, of course, the big question is, what will cause the odds to move in one direction or another?

What causes the odds to move?

We could discuss many facets, but some key ones are also the most influential in moving odds.

Weather/Going

Most horses perform better over certain types of ground, so you should be aware of whether or not the going is likely to change due to forecast heavy rain, for example.

That will affect the chances of a horse winning and, therefore, its odds. Keeping an eye on the weather is critical to spotting a reasonable adjustment in odds.

Preliminaries

The preliminaries are the stage where horses are prepared for the race. If the horse misbehaves during this period, its price will drift as people are less willing to back the horse.

2022 Derby result.png

This rerating of odds is more prominent the shorter the price of the horses.

Previous race results

Another dominant factor in a market is the results from prior races. This effect can be powerful during big meetings where large crowds can move the odds on course.

Typically when a trainer, jockey, or preferably both win a series of races, the betting market will get into a bit of a fever and start piling in on the next race.

The unusual thing about this year is that we have an early start for the Derby and that will dampen this effect for this race, but there probably will still be opportunities later in the card.

Order flow trading

You can also profit on racing by watching where backers and layers are placing their money. This is called order flow trading.

You can back or lay ahead of this and net a profit between your entry and exit price, just like trading on a financial market.

This is my preferred method of trading as it can be done without much preparation, is very effective, but is a little harder to master than other strategies.

This is because you need to focus intensely and 'read the mind' of the betting market and its intentions.

Each of these strategies has some depth to them and I'd encourage you to visit the Bet Angel website to get more knowledge of each.

Why the Derby is a favourite race

There are two key reasons why the Derby is one of my favourite races. The first is that this meeting was the birth of Betfair and without that, all these opportunities would not exist.

The second is that since I started keeping detailed records in 2006, using the methods I have outlined above, I've never lost on the Derby.

It can seem difficult to comprehend if you are familiar with traditional betting, but since betting exchanges were invented the opportunity to profit in several novel ways has never been better.

For that reason, I suggest you take a deep dive into all the wonderful things you can do on the Betfair exchange.

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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.