Ante-Post Racing Tips: Sam Turner fancies a couple of Oaks outsiders to trouble favourite

• Flower stamina query means favourite overlooked 

• Newbury event could hold the key to Oaks puzzle

• Beckett filly bred to take a hand while Queen could also figure

Stamina query means fav is worth taking on

Charlie Appleby and the Godolphin team appear to have little doubt that 1000 Guineas winner Desert Flower will relish the exacting mile-and-a-half trip of the Epsom Oaks and extend her unbeaten sequence to six on Friday.

Undeniably brilliant at Newmarket on her racecourse return, the Night Of Thunder filly was aggressively ridden and ground her rivals into submission at Newmarket to record a finishing speed percentage on or around par for the track which paid testament to the ride she received from William Buick.

That was a weekend at HQ where fast ground and a tailwind aided those ridden prominently and Buick judged the sectionals to perfection to cozily see off Flight and Simmering, both of which have subsequently been vanquished along with 9^th home Duty Free by Lake Victoria in the Irish Guineas.

Night Of Thunder clearly harbours his share of 12-furlong winners, Estrange and Lexington Knight have both won in the last couple of days to illustrate that, while the percentage of winners he has produced as a sire at the Oaks trip currently hovers around a highly respectable 18 per cent.

The query regarding Desert Flower's stamina for the Oaks stems more from her stride frequency which is more synonymous with that of a 10-furlong filly.

According to RaceIQ data, her cadence (strides per second) at Newmarket was in keeping with her victory in the Fillies' Mile and a Newmarket novice as a juvenile in registering a figure of 2.37. Just for context, talented sprinters will habitually register figures more towards 2.50, while middle distance horses are normally registering figures around 2.30 and lower as they they step up in trip).

Ironically, Ruling Court and Field Of Gold both recorded cadence figures of 2.38 in the 2000 Guineas a day earlier and, as we have seen from their performances, both are blessed with an abundance of speed.

Of course, there are anomalies and there are no hard and fast rules when it comes to judging a horse's stamina for, as we know, a set of circumstances presented during a race, ie slow gallop, fast pace, stop-start tempo will often suit one horse more than another.

But the data we have available does not suggest Desert Flower's stamina is copper-bottomed so at 7/42.75 she is overlooked for the purposes of trying to find a better value wager.

Two-pronged attack with 14/115.00 and 10/111.00 shots

I was initially very keen on Whirl for this event following her dominant display in the Tattersalls Musidora Stakes when she defied uneasiness in the market to rout a small field.

However, Ryan Moore's comments on pulling up with a view to an Oaks bid were hardly compelling with the French Oaks suggested as a more viable target, albeit she must have emerged from her Knavesmire victory in good heart for trainer Aidan O'Brien to even consider this race.

However, her rider's view that the 10 furlongs of Chantilly were potentially going to prove more suitable sounded the alarm bells and are reinforced by a cadence figure of 2.36 (she recorded 2.42 on her final start as a juvenile) and it appears like she simply possessed too many gears for a bunch of modest stayers at York.         

So, what are we left with?

The supplemented Elwateen looks a miler and has an even higher cadence (2.41 in the Guineas) than fellow Shadwell filly Falakeyah who recorded a figure in line with a 12-furlong performer when running away with the Pretty Polly Stakes courtesy of a cadence of just 2.31.

Confused? So am I!

Giselle looked highly talented but very keen and raw at Lingfield which would temper enthusiasm, but in contrast stablemate Minnie Hauk looked a solid stayer with an uncomplicated attitude and temperament in landing the Cheshire Oaks when recording a time to match.

If you fancy Minnie Hauk at between 6/17.00 and 8/19.00, then surely you can also fashion a case for recent Navan winner Wemighttakedlongway who has clocked cadence figures closer to that of a stayer (2.3) and comfortably dismissed Minnie Hauk at Cork last October.

Maybe the well-contested Listed event at Newbury in the middle of May may have an influence on the result with winner and runner-up Qilin Queen and Revoir set to renew rivalries at Epsom.

7 (6)

Revoir

• J: Hector Crouch
• T: Ralph Beckett
• F:

Priced at 14/115.00 (bigger is available) and 10/111.00 for this contest respectively, the duo both emerged from their latest displays with credit, with the positively ridden winner taking another big step forward and Revoir, related to former Oaks winner Look Here, appearing to learn on the job before hitting the line strongly.

Given plenty of Ralph Beckett's horses have needed the run, it was a fine effort from Revoir and the cadence figure from her win at Nottingham as a two-year-old was one of the lowest in the field at 2.27 so the trip should represent no issue whatsoever.

6 (7)

Qilin Queen (Ire)

• J: Tom Marquand
• T: Ed Walker
• F:

Qilin Queen arguably lacks the scope and progression of her old adversary, but her yard is in rampant form at present, and she simply wasn't quick enough to lay up in the Pretty Polly behind Falakeyah given the way the track was riding, albeit she did keep on gamely out of the Dip.

She looked a happier horse dominating at Newbury before rallying gamely late on under Hollie Doyle and her cadence data and breeding suggests an extra couple of furlongs could induce further improvement for a stable that can barely put a foot wrong at present.

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