Daryl Carter's Tips: Tron 7/1 can open the door on day one at York

• Tronador 7/18.00 NAP is great each-way value on his Goodwood running

• Mostahdaf could not have more in his favour

• Two-pronged attack in Fillies Sprint

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14:25 York - Back Cogitate @ BSP 1pt

Ballymount Boy sets the standard here with his Group 2 Richmond second to subsequent Prix Morny winner Vandeek. Still, he did go off an unfancied 25/126.00 chance for that, and a few rivals very much underperformed on the day in contrasting conditions to declaration time.

He is not taken on lightly, with the move up in distance sure to suit. Still, his hold-up racing style might not be conformed to this track on the round course, and the same applies to the potentially useful Edwardian who moves up in trip and will indeed be ridden to get the seven furlongs.

I am happy to take on both with Newbury scorer Cogitate - currently 5/23.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook. His price can only go one way, so I am happy to let the money come for the O'Brien runner and back him at BSP.

The case for Cogitate is not as strong as the favourite, but he did show an abundance of promise on debut at Newbury and won going away in the style of a proper horse.

Connections have won this race twice in the last ten years but have only run three horses in the contest in that time, and it's unlike Charles Hills to go to war with a horse that's out of his depth (his other runner went off 5/2f).

Cogitate's very dominant Newbury victory was let down by the runner-up next time when moving up to 1m, but it came at the hands of the Newbury eighth, and that form ties in with the smart Arabian Crown, so there may prove to be substance to it.

The Newbury contest is typically a strong renewal each year, and some very high-class names have won the race, so it shouldn't be form to take lightly in the long run.

I'd be happy at odds of 4/15.00 to take the Betfair Sportsbook price. I expect Edwardian to go off close to favourite for this, and Ballymount Boy can't drift too much given the bare form, so BSP looks like the way to play this race.

15:35 York Juddmonte - Back Mostahdaf @ 5/23.50 1.5pt

There's no getting away from the fact that Paddington is a classy horse to rack up four Group 1's, and you could easily use the argument of, "What more can he do" but it might be the case that he has been in the right place at the right time.

I genuinely believe there is reason to take him on, and as a punter, everything is price related, and the makeup of this race on the Betfair Sportsbook means you could back all his rivals for a small profit at 9/43.25, 9/110.00 and 14/115.00.

Paddington's latest Sussex Stakes Goodwood victory saw him get down and dirty to win. Still, he must have had a hard race given the atrocious conditions (slowest run Sussex Stakes ever recorded), and Ryan Moore was pulling no punches at the finish asking for maximum effort to fend off Group 2 horse Facteur Cheval.

That has to have taken a bit out of the three-year-old who has been on the go having hard races time after time in reasonably quick succession since May.

The theory is that he has to plateaux at some point and put in a below-par performance, and this is his toughest test yet turned out just 21 days later.

Paddington hasn't met a horse with everything in his favour. Emily Upjohn was over a trip shy of her best, and Inspiral hated the ground at Goodwood, while the Sussex Stakes form is a little windy and only saw him match the four-length margin with Charyn from the St James's Palace and the Irish 2,000 Guineas so how far has he really come?

Today he meets a colt in Mostahdaf - 5/23.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who has optimum conditions and arrives as a fresh horse.

The John And Thady Gosden runner has a perfect record on the back of a 50-day break or more, with form figures reading 111111. Today is his optimum distance of ten furlongs with form figures of 1121, while when he has tackled ground with firm in the going description over today's ten furlongs, he has produced his career-best RPR ratings of 122 and latest 128 - Paddington has never encountered this quick a surface.

It's not often you see a horse that has all the boxes ticked in a Group 1, and on both of those starts in which he recorded his career-best RPR ratings, he has beaten horses rated 123, 121, 121, 122, 110, 113, 97, 111 to name a few. While Paddington has beaten Emily Upjohn (120), and that form ties in closely with Nashwa.

Mostahdaf has thrived in the cheek-pieces since June 2022 and is unbeaten on the back of a break in this headgear, while his defeats in the Sheema Classic in Meydan to the world's best horse Equinox saw him over a trip too far. He paid for trying to go with that one from the gates, and his Arc flop on deep ground over the same 1m4f trip is easily forgiven.

Perhaps his form is not as top-notch as one would like when taking on a thriving three-year-old who seems to brush aside all before him. Still, neither has visited York - only Dante winner The Foxes has that accolade - but there's little else he could have in his favour.

There is an argument to suggest that this might be the limit of Paddington's stamina (Sandown sectionals would concur), while this is an optimum distance for Mostahdaf.

It's not all about Paddington and Mostahdaf, though. Nashwa will suit this venue, and she has shown stacks of speed that could hold her in excellent stead if this is a tactical affair.

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YORK EBOR FESTIVAL DAY 1 SUPERBOOST

Back Paddington to win the 15:35 at York, now EVENS (from 4/71.57)

*Max £10

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Getting back on a sounder surface will surely see her to best effect with form figures on good or better reading 141113 over ten furlongs or shorter.

However, this is her first time outside of a fillies-only race, and her progress has halted.

The Foxes is getting better with each run and was unlucky not to win the Belmont Derby and has been very much overlooked by the market, considering York is an unusual place that tends to reward course winners repeatedly.

His Dante victory is a little thin on the ground regarding form depth. Still, he is open to further progress and is another that will suit a faster surface while he is unexposed over ten furlongs and has optimum conditions for a career-best effort.

He has already proven to overcome a small tactical field race when landing the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes on his final start as a two-year-old, and it's hard to knock what he has achieved, albeit the bare form is not at that of Mostahdaf and Nashwa at this point but a big performance could be inbound.

The way this race unfolds will be interesting. None of these really want to make the running, and that could fall to Ryan Moore and Paddington, but he will have a target on his back should he opt to do so.

The easy play here is to say no bet and give some excuse as to why this is a poor betting race, but from my seat, I see a horse with nearly all the boxes ticked and not favourite, so Mostahdaf gets the vote to come out on top.

16:10 York - Back Tronador @ 7/18.00 1pt e/w (NAP)

The money has unsurprisingly come for Tony Martin's Zanndabad, who has gone from 10/111.00 into 4/15.00 favourite, but I like the chances of Gordon Elliott's Tronador - 7/18.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook.

Tronador was given a mountain to climb at Goodwood but caught the eye when finishing third, having come from much further back than the winner and the runner-up (Robert Johnson), having to slice his way through runners having been denied a clear run on multiple occasions.

Joe Fanning was never hard on him once his chance had gone, but it was an excellent effort and his best on the flat with the ground on the slower side.

The return to a sounder surface and this more conventional track with a long home straight will see him to good effect, and it would be highly surprising if he couldn't make his presence felt off the same mark.

The Betfair Sportsbook is paying four places, and few in here possess the stamina he has, evident by his finishing effort at Goodwood.

He remains unexposed over staying distances and has looked better than ever this season with his seasonal return over a trip short of what he wants, a good win at Limerick in excellent fashion and a brilliant third over hurdles.

He makes appeal as one of the few on the upgrade and is a cracking each-way proposition.

16:45 York - Back Marine Wave @ 8/19.00 1pt and Kimngrace @ 10/111.00 1pt

This is a smashing race, but Marine Wave - 8/19.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - makes plenty of appeal on handicap debut and is entirely unexposed over five furlongs.

She travelled ominously well in the Group 3 Summer Stakes here over six furlongs last time but could not peg back the leaders with her stamina ebbing out at the finish, and that run confirmed moving back down in distance would be the way to go.

She has plenty of speed in her family with her dam related to Tangerine Trees and Nunthorpe winner Alpha Delphini. At the same time, her best piece of form also comes over this 5f trip when second to Makarova on her penultimate start in Listed company at Ayr.

Her only other attempt at this trip came when a comfortable winner over Radio Goo Goo at Southwell when giving the now 89-rated rival seven pounds.

She drops into a handicap for the first time and ticks plenty of boxes off of this workable rating of 93, and unlike this favourite from the Haggas yard, she is moving down in grade.

Her form holds the likes of Lady Hamana and Designer, so there is a case that she should be shorter in the market, particularly considering this distance will see her finishing strongly.

Kimngrace - 10/111.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - is the other I want on side here having caught the eye staying on strongly at Chepstow in the Racing League last time and hinting that a return to form could be imminent and now returned to the scene of her demolition job in October last year she could be about to strike.

Richard Hughes' four-year-old thumped the boys in a handicap here on her only visit and produced the goods at Lingfield on seasonal return in February to prove it was no fluke.

Things haven't entirely gone to plan since. She has valid excuses for many of those, however. She failed to fire when travelling to France and was drawn out of it at Bath in a Listed contest but caught the eye, having been denied a clear run and finished with running left.

She has come down the handicap 11lbs in four runs since scoring at Lingfield, and connections now secure the services of Ryan Moore.

She looks well worth chancing at the prices as we take a two-pronged attack at this contest. Back them both no shorter than 8/19.00.

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Racing...Only Bettor. Watch the York Ebor Day 1 Preview here.