Daryl Carter's Tips: Treasure on the hunt for Goodwood Gold

• Either Blake or Gun can fire in the opener

• Cox's handicap debutant is very interesting at 16/117.00

• Treasure Time well-handicapped in the Goodwood finale

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Listen to Day Three Glorious Goodwood Tips on Racing Only Bettor...

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13:50 Goodwood - Back Blake 7/18.00 1pt

It's fascinating that Blake's - 7/18.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - connections have him entered for this and the slightly longer race on Friday (declared for). Only a handful of horses have double entries across the week, and perhaps connections think their horse is well handicapped enough to double up under a penalty. It's all speculation, of course.

Still, Blake is impossible to ignore from a handicapping perspective after he bolted up at Sandown last time in a race, clocking an excellent comparative time with the other three races on the card, including the Eclipse. He is firmly on an upward curve, and if the clock is correct, a nine-pound rise won't be enough to stop him.

He has done nothing but improve. He bumped into the subsequent Ribblesdale runner-up in a handicap at Doncaster when attempting to take the scalp of Lava Stream when she was rated 74 - she is now 107, and he put in a good fight.

He took care of a subsequent winner, now rated nine pounds higher, at Sandown in May before an eye-catching run at Epsom behind the very smart Persica (won again since). He was forced wide for much of the race and was in trouble following a slow start. He put that behind him last time with an authoritative display, and he is surely better than a mark in the 80s.

My only concern is the ground. He is untested on a quicker surface, and soft ground benefits him. Still, connections will surely pull him out if it's not correct, and that is the reason for a second selection. He is too well-treated to pass over. Back him at 7/18.00 or bigger.

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13:50 Goodwood - Back Midnight Gun @ 4/15.00 1pt

The second selection is the exceptionally well-bred Midnight Gun--4/15.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook--who was workmanlike when getting the job done at Newmarket last time but is a horse with any improvement to come. Entirely unexposed, picked up by Wathnan Racing for this intended target and armed with a good low draw for a prominent position, he must go close.

His form has worked well on turf, and there is little reason to think he won't continue on his upward curve. His pedigree screams for this step up in distance. He is the most solid option in the race. Back him at 4/15.00 or bigger.

The only other to consider is Son at an enormous price. He ran well here in last year's Vintage Stakes and needed a stiffer stamina test. Still, he lacks the upside to his profile that the two selections possess.

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16:45 Goodwood - Back Unbreak My Heart @ 16/117.00 1pt

Clive Cox won this race in 2022 with a filly similar to Unbreak My Heart - 16/117.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - and it may pay to give the daughter of Showcasing some support on this handicap debut.

The three-year-old has been crying out for faster ground, and today's surface, along with this fast five-furlong at Goodwood, may prove ideal circumstances for her to build on the promise of her last two runs in Group and Listed company at Sandown.

Undoubtedly, the ground went against her in the Group 3 Coral Charge last time. Still, her previous outing in the Scurry Stakes saw her denied a clear run continuously behind the smart Adaay In Devon and subsequent York winner Flora Of Bermuda, who finished first and second. The third from that race bolted up at Naas in a Listed event next time, and the fifth was narrowly beaten in the Palace Of Holyrood House Stakes at Royal Ascot before landing a handicap from a rating of 91 at Newmarket.

That single piece of form is valuable in the context of this race, and she now has conditions much more in her favour down into the lowest grade race she has contested (Class 3). She races from a fair mark of 95 and can make her presence felt from what looks like a good draw alongside the favourite.

Back her at 10/111.00 or bigger.

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17:55 Goodwood - Back Treasure Time @ 11/26.50 1pt

Treasure Time - 11/26.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - has done nothing but improve this season, and his form has worked out exceptionally well. Switched to turf for only the second time in his career in June, he was unlucky not to finish much closer to the winner Native King at Chester following strong market support had his rider not got into trouble on the inside.

As many William Haggas tend to do, he has improved with each race and fended off the useful subsequent winner Jungle Mac at Newmarket, proving strong at the finish, with an effort backed up by the clock. He followed that run up with another brilliant run at Newmarket when he moved up to 1m, again clocking an excellent speed figure, when he was only run down late by a Godolphin improver who looked bound for Group company.

He has a big pot in him, and this track should play to his strengths. The return to a quick surface from a good draw in stall seven adds to his appeal.

Back the selection at 11/26.50 or bigger - that is his basement price.

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P/L Update

The P/L update does not include the four points laid out on July 31st, as this was written before then. However, I will add another small update in Friday's column.

To advised prices = +17.59 ROI 16.52%
BSP = -0.5 ROI - 0.49%

It was a mixed month, with Saturdays providing the bulk of the returns, with 133% ROI. There were 14 winners. The highlights were the 2pt win selection on Garfield Shadow advised at 17/29.50 and Cicero's Gift 11/112.00 advised 2pt e/w. The low was Makalu beaten in running at 1.011/100.

July by points advised to advised prices:

0.5pt win = -2
1pt win =+6.58
1.5pt win = +17.81
2pt win = +5
2.5pt win = -5
3pt win = -6

Total +16.39

July points advised to advised prices:

0.5pt e/w = -4.8
1pt e/w = -17.4
1.5pt e/w = -3
2pt e/w = +26.4

Total + 1.2

The E/W bets other than Cicero's Gift have not been profitable this month.

2024 P/L report

In 2024, E/W bets provided an 8% ROI compared to the 15.78% ROI of the win-only bets.

I need to look into scrapping E/W bets at the end of the year. In the last three years to date, win-only bets have an ROI of 10.28%, E/W bets 7.92%, and a combined ROI of 9.66%, so it looks as though they are bringing down the ROI at the moment - more on this later in the year.

In 2024 this column is in profit 5/7 months.

The current P/L for this column in 2024 is as follows:

2024 To Advised Prices = +93.04 ROI 13.38%
2024 To BSP prices = +62.4 ROI 8.91%

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