Daryl Carter's Tips: Three Thursday bets with a Lingfield NAP

Daryl Carter.
Daryl Carter has three selections on Thursday

Daryl Carter has three bets on Thursday and looks to Lingfield for his NAP and a recent column selection to go one better at Warwick...

  • Two Lingfield bets have strong claims

  • NAP Saturnalia will relish the move back down in distance at his favoured venue

  • Ballygrifincottage can deservingly get a victory for the Skeltons

  • Rachael Blackmore Serial Winners Fund at £205K - Read more here

  • 13:50 Lingfield - Back Saturnalia @ 5/23.50 1.5pt

    A handful of these hold claims, but Saturnalia - 5/23.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - likes this Lingfield venue, and the drop back to a sprinting trip of six furlongs could be just what the doctor ordered to see further progression.

    The four-year-old ran well in a better race than this at Chelmsford last time on the back of a seasonal return and is now entitled to strip fitter dropping in grade. He scored the second time out last year at Wolverhampton when moving down in the distance. Today, he returns to Lingfield, where his AW form figures read 212 with the victory over the progressive How Impressive, who is now rated 13lbs higher in the handicap.

    Ethan Jones's five-pound claim puts the selection one pound lower than his 7f victory here in August and three pounds lower than his short-head defeat in September over the same trip when headed inside the final ten yards.

    The move back down to six furlongs looks like a big positive from a good draw in stall two, and the cheek-pieces return today.

    He ticks plenty of boxes. Epic Express will rightly be popular after his latest romp.

    Back the selection at 2/13.00 or bigger.

    13:50 Lingfield - Back Saturnalia @ 5/23.50

    Bet Here

    15:20 Lingfield - Back Dutch Kingdom @ 15/28.50 0.5pt e/w

    This is competitive, but the headgear switch on the Dutch Kingdom - 15/28.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - may be worth exploring for punters, having stuck to the task strongly at Wolverhampton 88 days ago behind a useful winner who has some strong form.

    Darryll Holland's runner hasn't been since, which is a slight concern. However, John Egan's booking is positive when looking through his profile. The switch of headgear may also be an angle. He won in first-time blinkers at Kempton, won when they were switched out to cheekpieces at Wolverhampton, and then won when the blinkers were switched back here at Lingfield.

    The only time he has disappointed in the switch of headgear was on the turf at Newbury, but his turf record reads 0650, so it's wise to ignore that run given the progression he has shown on the AW with form figures of 451161322.

    He has been racing over 7f since November, with one outing over today's 1m resulting in victory. The move back up in distance is certainly a positive, with a record reading of 113 on the AW. His defeat came at the hands of Royal Ascot winner Burdett Road.

    Conditions are ideal for him today, from a fair draw in stall seven. He finished with running left behind Smoky Mountain at Wolverhampton when he was short of room at the finish. The winner has gone on to be very competitive up in grade, but the selection left the impression there was more to come.

    This is not a deep race. Francesi caught the eye last time, finishing with a rattle at Southwell. However, his concern is that he has run his best races after a break and, on two occasions, not backed it up the second time out. Cosmos Raj is a worthy favourite but has never won outside of Class 5 company on the AW.

    Back the selection at 11/26.50 or bigger.

    15:20 Lingfield - Back Dutch Kingdom E/W @ 15/28.50

    Bet now

    17:05 Warwick - Back Ballygrifincottage @ 9/25.50 1pt

    Ballygrifincottage - 9/25.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - went close to scoring for this column at Sandown last time, and he is worth another chance with that effort, a further improved one on his Ascot fifth to Threeunderthrufive.

    Today represents a similar contest for him to continue his race-by-race progress back to form with this race at most a 0-130 outside of his presence, and today's desperate ground conditions are right up his street, which could give him the edge. He caught the eye with the ease he travelled through the race at Sandown despite making an error at the wrong time. Still, he did best of those to come from off the pace, and this sharper track today should suit him well.

    He may not be thrown in by the handicapper, but he has a bigger effort in him off this rating in the mid-130s, and having had No Risk Des Flos and Trincomalee in behind last time, his chances are clear. No Hubs No Hoobs loves Wincanton, so it may not be best to expect a similar performance from him. Your Own Story is indeed prepping for the Scottish National later this month. The rest are beatable, and in the hope that Harry Skelton gives him a more forceful ride rather than a waiting one this time, he has the class to outshine these.

    Any 4/15.00 or bigger seems fair.

    17:05 Warwick - Back Ballygrifincottage @ 9/25.50

    Bet now

    Now read: Ultimate Guide to Betting on the Grand National 2024: Tips, Odds and Predictions


2024 P/L = Next update (monthly) May 1st

2024 P/L = +62.87 ROI 24.51%

BSP P/L = +51.2 ROI 19.94%

2024 P/L Ante-post = +8


2021 P/L = +187pts 12% ROI

2022 P/L = + 137.1pts ROI 8.72% +22.7pts BSP 1.44% ROI

2023 P/L = +112.63pts ROI 8.86% +99.4pts BSP 7.84% ROI

2023 P/L (Incl ante) Total = +146.63 ROI 11.5%


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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.

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