Daryl Carter Tips

Daryl Carter's Tips: Skelton Mare takes a chunk of my cash on Sunday

Daryl Carter.
Daryl has one bet on Sunday.

After another profitable Saturday with 7/24.50 winner King Of Steel, Daryl Carter says he is confident that a Dan Skelton Novice Chaser can get off the mark over fences on Sunday at Kempton...

  • Debut experience won't be lost on her

  • Skelton can win the race again

  • She looks well ahead of the handicapper now over fences

At the beginning of this column, I mentioned that the P/L would be updated at the start of each month with an in-depth breakdown of every aspect. I also said that if a follower wanted to know the current P/L, I would happily give a quick update, so here we are.

October is currently running at +39.2 points with an ROI of 61.35% and +24.3 to BSP 37.99% ROI

The yearly total since Jan 1st 2023, is +109.31 with an ROI of 10.10% to advised stakes and +102.6 to BSP with an ROI of 9.48%.

On to today...

14:20 Kempton - Back Notnowlinda @ 15/82.88 2.5pt (NAP)

It didn't take long for me to break the rule of backing only in Class 3 races and above, but I'd like to think I can make an exception for a Novice Chase, particularly one that has a horse as well handicapped as Notnowlinda - 15/82.88 on the Betfair Sportsbook.

Dan Skelton's Mare offered plenty to work with in defeat on chase debut at Warwick 27 days ago, and I expect her to improve significantly with that run under her belt. She was ridden with restraint and could have done with a stronger pace as she gained lengths at her fences over her rivals with her fluent jumping technique but was reigned back in the midfield.

Warwick's chase course is a stiff test for Novices, but she handled it excellently well, and her fast economic jumping took her to the front as she tackled the challenging back straight on the final circuit.

She tired towards the finish, edging out to her right at the second last and final flight and was outstayed over 2m4f in the closing stages with a last flight blunder costing her precious ground and traded as low as 1.321/3.

Still, the winner is a useful horse that will be seen to good effect this season now tackling fences (had readily beat the useful 130-rated Attacca in a bumper and had useful Point to Point form) and is well worth keeping on side while. They pulled well clear of the subsequent scorer back in third.

She has made the running in the past, and Dan Skelton is not shy with his Novice Chasers once they have had a run under their belt and typically likes to send them on to exploit the inexperience of his rivals. I firmly expect Harry Skelton to do that and make all of the running here today, particularly with five of the six runners in here making their seasonal debuts and the two four-year-olds are flat-bred.

Notnowlinda is a former Point to Point winner who beat the useful Queens Rock (rated 120), so improvement can be expected in this sphere and a mark of 112 surely underestimates here.

The switch to a right-handed track is a positive move, having led on her right fore around the left-handed bends at Warwick and shifting to the right in the closing stages over her fences on her seasonal/chase debut.

She ticks plenty of boxes in this much weaker race, and with further improvement, she will prove very tough to beat as Dan Skelton goes in search of back-to-back wins in this race.

I'd have her more of an Evens chance, so any 5/42.25 or bigger is more than fair.

14:20 Kempton - Back Notnowlinda @ 3.185/40

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Since Jan 1st 2023 - Updated Monthly - Next update November 1st

Advised Stakes = +69.5pts ROI 6.75%

BSP = +76.4pts ROI +7.4%


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