Daryl Carter Tips

Daryl Carter's Tips: Play tactically with Gosden duo at Kempton

Daryl Carter
Daryl Carter has three Wednesday selections

Daryl Carter has three selections from Kempton on Wednesday evening and looks to the Tactical Finance-owned duo of John and Thady Gosden to provide a double...

  • So Logical is fast improving

  • Miss Kubelik can dominate

  • Chance The Goat to bounce back with an all-weather angle

19:15 Kempton - Back So Logical @ 4/15.00 1.5pt (NAP)

The vote goes to So Logical - 4/15.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who won with any amount in hand at Newmarket last time, and the collateral form of that race sees her in a good light. She has taken big steps forward with each outing this season, and a three-pound rise for her latest Class 3 victory will not be enough to stop her from going in again after being granted a fair draw returning to the AW.

The three-year-old had enough speed at Newmarket to ensure she was well positioned as the race turned up a notch, and she comfortably burst through the field. She cared for a Richard Hannon horse that had previously gone close behind the useful 85-rated Key To Cotai over the same course and distance.

The runner-up, Love Billy Boy, was better than the bare result when third at Doncaster next time and granted a smoother passage may have boosted the form. The third and fourth behind the selection at Newmarket brought strong previous form to the table, with the latter narrowly behind the smart Never So Brave at Chester on his penultimate outing. At the same time, the fifth, Gressington, who went off co-favourite, was narrowly denied by the useful 91-rated Volterra last year at Redcar, giving the form a strong glow.

That rates close to the best form on offer. She is firmly on an upward curve and is expected to take a further step forward today on her second handicap outing. She rates a betting proposition at 11/43.75 or bigger. I expect to see market support from her opening odds.

Spun To Gold is another form horse in this race, but despite his pedigree, he shapes as though a move down in trip is what he wants and may be best watched for now. North View is another with strong form in the book, and he caught the eye staying on at Ascot last time, but he can be keen, and the fitting of the cheek-pieces is a concern from a wide draw up in distance. He is another to keep on the right side of following this contest, and no doubt he will be backed into single figures in a race that will likely work out well.

19:45 Kempton - Back Miss Kubelik @ 5/23.50 1pt

John and Thady Gosden could have a productive day at Kempton on Wednesday - I like Cat Ninja in the 18:40 also - and owners Tactical Finance can land back-to-back races with their Miss Kubelik - 5/23.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook.

She looked like one to keep on the right side of with her latest victory, and from a good draw in stall three, she can gain a prominent early position and prove very tough to pass.

The filly put in a good front-running effort at Bath 21 days ago under hand and heels, leaving the firm impression there was more to come. Given that was a step forward on the figures, she may defy this opening rating of 83 expertly placed into a Class 4 0-82 in receipt of an 11lb weight for age allowance from Mother Mary (engaged on Tuesday).

She is bred to be useful. On her debut at Southwell, she chased home the 1,000 Guineas winner Elmalka and had a subsequent winner back in third. I like how she is progressing, and we have yet to see the best of her.

Others hold stronger form claims in Eleftheria and Miss Information, but the selection has a much bigger performance in her, and the yard has gone narrowly close in this in the past two years. At the same time, she is likely to be well-positioned to gain the first run on her rivals. 5/23.50 is the basement price.

20:15 Kempton - Back The Goat @ 10/111.00 1.5pt

Looking away from the obvious can prove profitable and is encouraged. However, knowing when to do it and when not is important. It's no good throwing up 25/126.00 shots when the 4/15.00 favourite should be a 2/13.00 chance and has strong claims. That's overlooking a value play with a higher win probability for no other reason than ego.

The top of this market is unappealing to me, and I am not sure the form of the favourite Insanity is as strong as the market indicates. Cracksking has left the impression this 1m4f distance stretches his stamina, so while he will prove popular as a less exposed type, concerns will arise at the furlong poll.

I couldn't be confident suggesting anything should be shorter than 3/14.00 in this race on current form.

Therefore, it may be something from left field that puts in a surprise effort. If that's the case, it may pay to take a chance with The Goat - 10/111.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who needs forgiving a handful of runs, including both starts since gelded this season, but he would be the only horse to have strong claims of being a short-priced favourite if he were to return to anything like the form he was in when last on this surface.

However, lots of water has passed under the bridge since then. Still, he wasn't given a hard time at Salisbury when shaping like a blatant non-stayer over 1m6f for the fourth time, and his Epsom run on his seasonal return following a gelding operation wasn't devoid of promise of a return to form. The drop back in trip for the first time outside of a seasonal return since his Goodwood romp and the return to the AW, where he has run two excellent races, could reignite the spark.

The form of his two efforts on the AW looks extremely strong. He was second to Blanchland (103) at Newcastle in 2022, and his latest effort here at Kempton when putting in a good shift to chase home Lion's Pride (109) and Middle Earth (115) over today's trip looks outstanding.

Interestingly, the progeny of Cracksman performs very well on the AW surface, and there's a chance - like last season - that he will come forward from his first two runs and score at the third time of asking under what looks like optimal conditions on the balance of his profile. Given the open nature of this race with Oisin Murphy enlisted in the saddle, he looks worth chancing at double-figure odds.

With the case for The Goat a little obscure and the market entirely dismissive of his chances, I want to have little more than a one-point win bet based on his course form. If he can come good, I would kick myself for not having a little more, so a one-and-a-half-point win bet is advised.

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2024 P/L = Next update (monthly) JULY 1st

2024 P/L = +59.85.43 ROI 12.67%

BSP P/L = +64.5 ROI 13.66%

2024 P/L Ante-post = -1


2021 P/L = +187pts 12% ROI

2022 P/L = + 137.1pts ROI 8.72% +22.7pts BSP 1.44% ROI

2023 P/L = +112.63pts ROI 8.86% +99.4pts BSP 7.84% ROI

2023 P/L (Incl ante) Total = +146.63 ROI 11.5%


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