Daryl Carter Tips

Daryl Carter's Tips: Origin 14/1 can blaze a trail at Ripon

Daryl Carter.
Daryl Carter has a strong Saturday fancy at Ripon at 14/1.

Daryl Carter heads into Saturday with four selections and says his NAP has been grossly overpriced...

  • 14/115.00 NAP ticks all the boxes at Ripon

  • Jasour has the sectionals to back up Newmarket claims

  • Boardman at 25/126.00 is a wild price

15:00 Newmarket - Back Jasour @ 12/113.00 1pt

Indeed, Vandeek has questions to answer on the ground this rattling quick, and he may have taken advantage of an undercooked River Tiber in Deauville last time, with that one reportedly having missed work before the race.

That's all speculation, but Jasour - 12/113.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - failing to give his running in that same race is a fact. He was too keen throughout his race, and Rossa Ryan allowed him to bowl and run himself into the ground.

That run is well worth putting a line through, considering he had been held up and smuggled into a race in both starts before that, and here he was all of a sudden making the running. Jim Crowley's comments after his July Stakes win of "riding him from off the pace is the key" gives the confidence to write off the entire running of the race, and the soft ground certainly wasn't in his favour.

It's worth remembering how well his victory on the July course has worked out (Gimcrack winner Lake Forest comfortably held). With form on the undulations of Newmarket, he may hold an edge over the big two in the market.

He clocked some excellent sectionals throughout his victory at Newmarket in the July Stakes compared to Quinault, who won the following race on the card and in no way did his racing position at the rear of the field favour him.

He looks well worth another chance, given the promise he offered two starts back at this HQ venue and returned to a faster surface. He could prove a different proposition today, and his double-figure odds are worth chancing, particularly given he didn't look out of place in France for a long way with most off the bridle at the two pole.

15:00 Newmarket - Back Jasour @ 12/113.00

Bet now

15:30 Ripon - Back Origintrail @ 14/115.00 1.5pt E/W (NAP)

If Ben Haslam had stopped messing around with Origintrail's - 14/115.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook- trip, he would have gotten her over the line by now. Still, he has at least seen sense and returned her to six furlongs and Ripon, her ideal conditions.

In August, she was a very unlucky loser for this column when she was continuously denied a clear run only to finish with running left behind Twelfth Knight. So how she is twice under similar conditions is fathoming.

That form, in turn, ties in with Brazen Bolt at the head of affairs today and her RPR ratings of 85, 88 and 89 here with form figures of 221 and the beaten distance of a combined 1/2 length plus a nose suggests she has far more to offer yet after just 13 starts - particularly here.

Her ideal conditions are slow ground and six furlongs - both boxes are ticked today - and she will surely get a sound clip to aim at. Graham Lee gets on well with this filly, and she is a winner in waiting off this rating of 79.

She has an ideal draw on the right side of the track, so provided she gets the gaps, there will be no excuse for this well-handicapped filly, who should be impossible to keep out of the frame with four places on the Betfair Sportsbook.

Back her at 8/19.00 or bigger.

15:30 Ripon - Back Origintrail e/w @ 14/115.00

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15:40 Newmarket - Back Oviedo @ 21.020/1 1pt

High draws have had a good record in this race in recent years, so the fact that Oviedo - 16/117.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - is drawn in stall one is not positive. However, he is a horse firmly on the upgrade and arrives on the back of a career-best effort when chasing home Astro King at York last time.

He was stopped in his run, and his rider waited for too long to make his challenge. That was an excellent effort carrying a big weight, and another could be forthcoming for the unexposed three-year-old who already has a Zetland Gold Cup to his name this year.

His earlier form in the Acomb Stakes as a two-year-old behind Chaldean has worked out brilliantly well, and he has only had a handful of starts on a decent surface. Something was amiss at Royal Ascot earlier this year, but he acquitted himself well in chasing home Group 1 performer Al Aasy at Newbury before his latest effort.

Good ground and a strong run mile will see him finish well. It would be surprising if he didn't manage to get in the frame with the Sportsbook offering six places, but given the track bias possible, it's a win-only bet on the Betfair Exchange that's advised at 21.020/1 or bigger.

15:40 Newmarket - Back Oviedo @ 21.020/1

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16:25 Haydock - Back Boardman @ 25/126.00 1pt e/w

As always, the sexy horses are towards the fore in this market, but the favourite Enfjaar has a little to prove, and I am shocked that Boardman - 25/126.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - is priced so negatively.

He could not get a foot in the door at Chester last time when held up too far off the pace and was a little better than the bare result, having been hampered when staying on at the finish. Considering these are his optimum conditions, he has been well overlooked in this market.

He was a very unlucky fourth in this race last year when continuously denied a clear run, and he hasn't had many goes at this 1m trip and none with the combination of today's soft ground.

He is handicapped to have a say in today's proceedings, having reached a rating of 103 just four starts ago, and he returns to this race off 98, two pounds lower than last term, and is one of just a handful who is likely to handle these conditions with good effect.

Today is the best opportunity he has had to gain his second win of the season, and Cam Hardie knows him well. There's lots to like, so back him each-way four places on the Betfair Sportsbook.

Back him at 14/115.00 or bigger

16:25 Haydock - Back Boardman e/w @ 25/126.00

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Since Jan 1st 2023 - Updated Monthly - Next update October 1st

Advised Stakes = +89.7pts ROI 9.61%

BSP = +110.3pts ROI +11.82%


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