Daryl Carter Tips

Daryl Carter's Tips: Lots to like about Ferguson's Drama at Newmarket

Daryl Carter.
Daryl Carter has four selections from Newcastle and Newmarket

Daryl Carter is back fresh from a short break and looks to Newmarket and Newcastle for his four bets on Thursday...

Oh, England, why do you continue to disappoint us? There was some promise in the second half against Slovenia, but the only man in Germany who doesn't know his strongest team is Gareth Southgate.

Still, my recent trip was brilliant, and Cologne is a tremendous city even when claimed by the English. We drove to Amsterdam on Sunday evening and then headed to Cologne for two days, and I can tell you now that I am feeling the effects. It has fired me up, so let's hope to return to some good form and start finding winners.


14:00 Newcastle - Back Gulf Legend @ 5/23.50 1pt

This is a trappy opening handicap at Newcastle, and all five can be given some sort of chance, but Gulf Legend - 5/23.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - went for £300,000 as a yearling and is bred to be much better than this opening rating of 80.

James Ferguson's three-year-old has shown improved form the last twice, and it's strong form in the context of this Class 4 handicap. He wasn't suited by his rider dictating a slow gallop at Haydock last time, but he was only outsped inside the final furlong by a subsequent winner. His previous effort at Newbury saw him beat into third by a very useful-looking William Haggas horse, and he was never stronger than at the finish. The Newbury form looks strong, and the runner-up boosted it by scoring the next time out.

The move further up in distance today and the switch to the AW should not be feared. It's only a matter of time before he gets off the mark, and Saffie Osborne, now in the saddle, is a positive.

Swordstick is interesting. He, too, holds some strong form with his latest Chester third and is feared most ahead of Tryfan, who could improve moving back to the AW. Today's favourite Extra Beat lacks a gear, and this move-up in trip is a benefit to him, but he is the wrong favourite in my book.

Back the selection at 5/23.50 or bigger.


15:25 Newmarket - Back Drama @ BSP 1pt

Drama left the impression that the best was yet to come with a strong finish at Kempton last time, and with that form looking strong, a three-pound rise should not be enough to stop him switching back to the turf.

He has an in-and-out profile, but in the hope that the newly fitted cheek-pieces continue to have a positive effect, he has the scope for much further progress off this mark of 81. He was a big eye-catcher last year on the Rowley Mile with a strong finishing fourth in the £150,000 Sales race behind the smart Woodhay Wonder, and a repeat of that effort will see him go close in this company.

The well-bred Waleefy will come good at some point, and the fitting of the tongue tie suggests connections think something may be a miss with his breathing and maybe one to catch next time. Infinity Blue shaped very well at Chester last time and, can't be dismissed and is feared most.

The selection is at his basement price at the time of writing, so use BSP.


16:10 Newcastle - Elnajmm @ BSP 1pt

Last year's winner, Lattam, is not easily passed over in a bid to follow up last year's win for a new stable, and the well-treated Brunch must be considered having finished with a flurry at Nottingham last time.

However, Elnajmm is dangerously well-handicapped, and he could blow this race wide open from what looks like a very fair opening handicap mark of 86. He represents last year's winning yard, and given connections' efforts to secure an excellent five-pound claimer for his seasonal return, he is impossible to oppose if fit and ready to go the first time up following an absence.

He has been gelded during his time off the track, and his form is exceptionally strong. The four-year-old was a big eye-catcher on his racecourse debut at Kempton, coming from a mile off the pace to finish second behind Dragon Icon. The third is now rated 101.

His Windsor second makes him look well-treated, having come from an impossible position to be touched off a short head and failing at the line. The winner is rated 105, the second 83, and he split the 89-rated Jeff Koons and 108-rated English Oak at Newmarket following that run before beating a three-time winner on his final outing.

With his claimer effectively allowing him to race from a rating of 81, he is exceptionally tough to ignore. Using BSP is the way to go here as the market will prove informative about whether this is a prep race for a bigger target.


16:30 Newmarket - Back Able Kane @ 7/18.00 0.5pt e/w

Able Kane - 7/18.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - has plenty going for him today and gets the vote to come out on top of this tricky handicap, having taken a step back in the right direction at Chepstow last time.

Connections look to Oisin Murphy and following Rod Milman when booking Murphy sees a profit of £42.48 and an 18% strike rate - 17% just this year.

The selection won at this time last year over course and distance when the blinkers were refitted and he is now seven pounds lower in the handicap.

Today, the headgear returns and his record at this Newmarket July course is very positive. Everything looks in place for a big effort. Ararat is the clear danger if fit and ready to go after a break and Waiting All Night could go well.

Back the selection each way at 7/18.00 or bigger.


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DARYL'S P/L

2024 P/L = Next update (monthly) JULY 1st

2024 P/L = +59.85.43 ROI 12.67%

BSP P/L = +64.5 ROI 13.66%

2024 P/L Ante-post = -1

DARYL'S P/L HISTORY

2021 P/L = +187pts 12% ROI

2022 P/L = + 137.1pts ROI 8.72% +22.7pts BSP 1.44% ROI

2023 P/L = +112.63pts ROI 8.86% +99.4pts BSP 7.84% ROI

2023 P/L (Incl ante) Total = +146.63 ROI 11.5%

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