Daryl Carter Tips

Daryl Carter's Tips: Lightening 18/1 can strike in Hamilton feature

  • Daryl Carter
  • Published on
  • Updated on
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Daryl Carter.
Daryl has a confident each-way NAP at Hamilton on Monday.

Daryl Carter heads into a fresh week with two Monday bets, and his NAP is a double-figure priced runner at Hamilton...

  • Two class droppers at Hamilton on Monday evening

  • Lightening Company has optimum conditions

  • Love De Vega down to 6f makes him of interest


19:40 Hamilton - Back Lightening Company @ 18/119.00 1pt e/w (NAP)

This contest at Hamilton is the sole Class 3 action of the entire day. I was shocked to see the early firm price up Shine On Brendan as the favourite for this considering he won a mickey mouse Class 5 contest last time and has only raced in Class 3 once in his entire career (Racing League @ 14/115.00). He must be taken on.

Gainsbourg arrives in excellent heart in search of a hat trick but is another up in grade after an eight pounds rise in the handicap, but he is not fully exposed, and the blinkers seem to have done the job thus far, so the course winner is respected. Still, he is one of four who like to get on with things in this field, and the race could favour something ridden with patience.

It's not often you see a William Haggas handicap debutant who won by five lengths last time not a clear favourite, but that's the case with Dubawi Warrior, who has plenty to learn and hasn't been let in lightly by the handicapper with an opening rating of 80. I still expect him to play a part.

It may pay to take a chance at bigger odds with Lightening Company - 18/119.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook. Ben Haslam's campaigning of this one is interesting, having sent him over hurdles the last twice, but the five-year-old returns to the flat and has won both times when returning to this sphere from a spin over the sticks and takes a big dip in class and has his favoured soft ground.

His two flat turf runs this term consists of a good Class 2 win at Pontefract back in April at Pontefract - which is the strongest form in this race by a country mile - and is a race that has worked out tremendously well before an excusable run when he found the ground far too quick at York in May again in Class 2 company.

He is very lightly raced for a five-year-old after just 11 outings, and his form figures on the flat, when soft has been in the going description, read 19311. It makes little sense that he is now a double-figure price down in grade, considering he has been going off shorter for more competitive races than this.

He makes plenty of appeal and is an excellent each-way betting proposition on Monday, as I make him more of a 6/17.00 chance at best.

Back Lightening Company @ 18/119.00

Bet now

20:10 Hamilton - Back Love De Vega @ 4/15.00 1pt

This is a trappy heat, and William Dewhirst was running on all too late at Doncaster 18 days ago, having been outpaced, and this is a tougher assignment than that one, so I am happy to take him on.

The one that interests me is Charlie Johnston's Love De Vega - 4/15.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - having tired late at Goodwood on heavy ground. However, there's a good chance that run came quickly enough after his 258-day break on seasonal return at Newmarket when he shaped very well in a strong Class 3 event.

Interestingly, it was a similar story last year when he turned out on his second outing and improved for his third (today, his third outing).

He may need more time between his races, and this is a quick enough turnaround today, but he drops in distance, having shown bright early speed at Goodwood, and he was failing to see out seven furlongs for much of last season.

The drop back in grade is also a positive, and this is much calmer waters today than he has contested for some time.

He was a speedy two-year-old over the minimum trip before scoring on his final two-year-old start over six furlongs at Nottingham,, so he may have untapped potential down at this distance.

None of these in here are progressive, so this looks like a perfect opportunity for the four-year-old to be tried back in trip. He looks worth chancing on balance, with both Sound Reason and Never Dark having their stamina to prove it and Iris Dancer having already been readily held by Slainte Mhath twice this season.

It might prove to be the Katie Scott Slainte Mhath who poses the biggest threat with a good record at this venue, but his latest start suggested he might be in the handicapper's grip now.

Back Love De Vega at 3/14.00 or bigger.

Back Love De Vega @ 4/15.00

Bet now

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DARYL'S P/L

Since Jan 1st 2023 - Updated Monthly - Next update Sept 1st

Advised Stakes = +66.02pts ROI 8.23%

SP = -38.6pts ROI -4%

BSP = +100.2pts ROI +12.49%

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