Daryl Carter's Tips: If tactics are right, it's hers 10/3 to lose

• She is the form horse in this race

• Keep low-drawn runners on side at Salisbury

• Back the class act to gain a deserved victory

16:30 Salisbury - Back Caernarfon @ 10/34.33 2pt NAP

This might not be as deep as the numbers suggest, and three-year-olds have had a good record in recent years while keeping those drawn low on side has been very beneficial to punters in races at Salisbury.

The nature of this track sees the first bend come up quickly from the 1m2f start, and you continuously swing right-handed uphill, and a big field can see those drawn wide, covering much more ground.

At Salisbury, a good angle for punters is to back low-drawn runners, particularly over this distance, with an A/E of 1.08 compared to 0.63 and 0.97 of those drawn middle and high. The return to a £1 level stake since 2014 would have seen low runners return -£2 but -£69 and -£30 to those drawn middle and high.

Considering everything, the potentially useful and unexposed Ameynah should find this challenging from stall 13, and the drying ground is surely a negative for Running Lion, whose form can be questioned.

The John And Thady Gosden favourite blew out in France last time, which is forgivable, but her form is hardly strong, and she saddles a penalty. The runner-up from her victory at Newmarket in the Pretty Polly won at Goodwood but in horrendous conditions and up to 1m6f, not 1m2f, while the rest of that field is well below the typical level.

I am more than happy to take her on with the form horse in this race, and that is Caernarfon - 10/34.33 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who finished an excellent fourth in the 1,000 Guineas from the wrong side of the track before going on to finish a two length third in the Epsom Oaks over a trip that probably stretched her stamina.

She was a big eye-catcher down in grade in the Group 3 Hampton Court against the boys when denied a clear run from the rear of the field, and that form is already working out. She then put in a joint career-best performance last time at Goodwood on unfavourable soft ground when attempting to overcome a pace bias behind some brilliant horses in Al Husn, Nashwa, Above The Curve and Blue Rose Cen - that's the very top of this division.

Caernarfon did well to finish as close as she did to Al Husun in the Group 1 Nassau Stakes last time at Goodwood and returned to a sounder surface today and down in grade from a good draw in stall one are reasons to think she gets to gain a just deserved victory.

Hopefully, connections will use the opportunity of a good draw by going forward initially; otherwise, all hope could be lost inside the final furlong. There's no reason she needs to be given an exaggerated hold-up ride.

If connections wish to get the most out of their useful three-year-old, then a more prominent ride would see her in pole position, particularly at this venue, and I see this race as theirs to lose.

Back her at 5/23.50 or bigger.

19:00 Kempton - Back Ivory Madonna @ 15/44.75 1pt

This is a wide-open race, and the market has predictably fallen in favour of the once-raced Richard Hannon horse with Ryan Moore aboard, but the form of her win at Newmarket is no more than mid-70s form, and she must give a seven pounds penalty away.

The time of that Novice debut victory could have been better, and she needed every inch of the 1m, so the drop back in distance is not in her favour at a speed track like Kempton. I want to take her on. Ludmilla has had plenty of chances over various distances, and connections now reach for the blinkers. Still, her Salisbury effort on her penultimate start over 1m is probably as reasonable as form as any in here.

The one that has been significantly underestimated is Ivory Madonna - 15/44.75 on the Betfair Sportsbook. She remains a Maiden after seven races under rules but a highly rated one after an excellent two-year-old campaign which saw her placed in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot, narrowly beaten in the Group 3 Swee Solera Stakes and a running on four lengths second in the Group 3 Dick Poole at Salisbury.

She has failed in four Maiden races now, which doesn't sound good, but her debut is forgiven, and the second saw her bump into the 92-rated Funny Story. The third, she found the 90-rated Balalaika too good at Newcastle (subsequently third in the Sandringham Stakes), and her latest arguably forgivable on the back of a 288-day absence when bumping into a brilliant Ismail Mohammed runner who has since scored in good style again and is rated 91.

She remains unexposed at this seven-furlong distance after just three starts, and her runs over six last season suggest this is certainly her trip.

The blinkers could be a good addition considering her tendency to be distracted early doors. This track should suit her with a long home straight, and I expect her to finish strong.

The favourite Le Mans will need to run into the low 90s to win this race, and her wide draw in stall nine won't help Ludmilla. Ivory Madonna hasn't been respected in the market, for this is the best opportunity for some time.