Daryl Carter Tips

Daryl Carter's Tips: He will be a Friendly price to land the Irish Derby

Daryl Carter.
Daryl Carter takes a closer look at the Irish Derby.

Daryl Carter struck with two strong bets on Saturday and, on Sunday, has three bets, including in the Irish Derby at the Curragh...

  • Chance Arabic Legend to bounce back at the Curragh

  • Kinondo Kwetu looks like excellent value at Uttoxeter

  • Ambiente Friendly will go off a delicious price in the Irish Derby


13:10 Curragh - Back Arabic Legend @ 6/17.00 1pt

I will chance my arm here with Arabic Legend - 6/17.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who possibly has excuses for his two runs this season - one of which wasn't bad at all.

He ran too freely in the Lingfield Derby Trial last time and was a blatant non-stayer over that 1m4f distance, so it's positive to see connections returning to this sharper test of 1m1f. The three-year-old shaped very well when fourth at Epsom over ten furlongs on his seasonal return, and that form took a boost when the winner, Bellum Justum, finished third in a strong renewal of the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot and the third landed a Group 3 next time out.

Still, his excellent performance last term behind Arabian Crown at Salisbury suggests we have yet to see the best of him and he looks like a potential improver back at this distance. Trainer Karl Burke is 2-5 with his three-year-olds on turf in Ireland, and it seems significant that he has made the journey to get this valuable prize of 58k.

How Irish races develop should suit his smart turn of foot. While there are others in here to consider, and the form of the favourite, Sharinay, does look strong, we certainly have yet to see the best of the selection, and the move back in trip is the angle to back him.

6/17.00 looks more than fair but no shorter.


15:00 Uttoxeter - Back Kinondo Kwetu @ 9/110.001pt e/w (4 places)

A switch to the sticks for the Summer Cup Handicap Chase at Uttoxeter, and if there is one horse that has been aimed at this since last summer, then it must be Kinondo Kwetu - 9/110.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who did remarkably well to finish third in this race when finding all sorts of trouble. He returns five pounds lower and carries far less than the 12 st he did on that occasion.

Last year's race winner, Twig, is now rated 11 lb higher in the handicap, and the selection looks like the type to benefit from his new cheek pieces.

He also boasts an excellent record at this venue with form figures of 311, and with fast ground in his favour, he is tough to ignore. A better performance is expected now returned to this venue following a short break.

Take out the top-weight Hang In There - who looks up against it to win this from a rating of 155. How is he favourite? - and this is effectively a 0-134. The favourite's presence is a blessing, though, as he puts eight of these out of the handicap, but the selection is weighted to go well, and all looks in place for a big effort.

He offers good value at 9/25.50 or bigger.


16:05 Curragh - Back Ambiente Friendly @ BSP 2pt win

This looks like a fierce renewal of the Irish Derby, with Ambiente Friendly (2nd) and Los Angeles (3rd) renewing their rivalry from the English version. Throw in the unknown quantity of Matsuri and the progressive Sunway, and this looks like a race not to be missed.

Ambiente Friendly travelled through the Epsom Derby like a very smart horse, and he just bumped into a potential superstar in City Of Troy on that occasion. However, with the absence of City Of Troy from this race, he looks like the obvious answer to land this contest and confirm form with Los Angeles.

There will be some making cases for a form reversal in favour of Los Angeles, given he made the running and did well to hang in there for as long as possible, but the latter was never more than three lengths off his girth, and he was coming away from him at the death. Perhaps Los Angeles was used as a pacemaker on that occasion, but that would also have me question the regard in which connections hold him if that was the case.

I found it impossible to find a genuine reason why the form would be reversed if granted a true and fair run race. However, Aidan O'Brien- well known for Derby tactics in the past- has three other runners in this race, which will ensure this is a good test and may cause some traffic problems for Ambiente Friendly.

Robert Havlin has a fair draw in stall six of eight on Ambiente Friendly, which should ensure he doesn't get caught on the rail and succumb to the O'Brien tactics, given all bar one are drawn inside him. Providing this is a true run affair with no funny business, Ambiente Friendly is the clear-form horse and the correct favourite. He seems weak in the opening markets and is as big as 6/42.50 on the Betfair Exchange. I can see him being easy to back with money for Los Angeles, and the Sportsbook currently has them joint favourites at 11/82.38, which I find a little crazy as he is not the horse I fear the most.

That horse is Matsuri, whose unknown quantity adds further intrigue, and although he needs to take a big step forward to land this race straight from an impressive Novice victory at Leicester 34 days ago.

His powerful performance last time out left a deep impression, and connections nominated him for this race immediately following that victory and said they had always thought of him as a Derby prospect. There's lots of upside to Matsuri despite the Leicester runner-up being beaten next time and his form lacking substance.

He is well drawn in stall two for a prominent ride from James Doyle, and if the O'Brien clan decide on a tactical race, they're better not ignore this lad. This Curragh track plays to the strengths of those ridden forward. It's tough to suggest he won't be in the mix if granted a pole position at the business end.

It's a fascinating race, and given Ambeinte Friendly is playing away from home, I genuinely believe he may not go off favourite for this race, so I am a backer at BSP in the hope of getting a generous price. However, 11/82.38 is more than fair for those wanting to use the Sportsbook.


Now Read: Ryan Moore on the Irish Derby


Recommended bets

DARYL'S P/L

2024 P/L = Next update (monthly) JULY 1st

2024 P/L = +59.85.43 ROI 12.67%

BSP P/L = +64.5 ROI 13.66%

2024 P/L Ante-post = -1

DARYL'S P/L HISTORY

2021 P/L = +187pts 12% ROI

2022 P/L = + 137.1pts ROI 8.72% +22.7pts BSP 1.44% ROI

2023 P/L = +112.63pts ROI 8.86% +99.4pts BSP 7.84% ROI

2023 P/L (Incl ante) Total = +146.63 ROI 11.5%

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