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Daryl aims at the Yorkshire Cup with his NAP
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He says Bradsell should be Nunthorpe's favourite, but Khaadem significantly underestimated
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And there's value in form horse Haatem
This is an open race, but that's not to say Balance Play doesn't deserve maximum respect now he moves up in distance after his excellent Goodwood victory. Still, he does take on his elders, and there's value in the price of Bague D'or - 10/111.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook.
The selection returns from a long absence but has form figures of 211 when returning off a break; granted, the longest of those was 213 days (this is 391), but he was last seen chasing home the subsequent Ebor winner Trawlerman at Goodwood off of today's rating, and this is effectively a drop into a 0-95 contest.
The interesting angle with him is the move from Chris Wall's yard to James Ferguson. As of the end of July, you could back former inmates of Chris Wall for the first time for their new handler for a profit of £15 to a £1 level stake (5-12) and two of those winners have come for this trainer James Ferguson in Kingmania and Savrola.
He must overcome an absence, but this field doesn't look deep. Balance Play, as said, is respected, and this might come too soon for Wooton'Sun, who dug deep at Ascot 13 days ago. Marhaba The Champ, who I expect to prove popular, has stamina to prove.
He looks worth chancing at 8/19.00 or bigger.
Courage Mon Ami - 10/34.33 on the Betfair Sportsbook- represents excellent value over Coltrane, who he had comfortably held on his penultimate start at Ascot over 2m4f, and despite being behind that rival at Goodwood, he was eased off when alongside.
The market has taken his finishing position to literally here as he managed to get on terms with Coltrane, who was better placed despite the ground and being tenderly handled.
Quickthorn is unlikely to get away from the pack as easily as he did at Goodwood, and I suspect that's why Andrew Balding has put in Nate The Great in a bid to ensure a repeat of the South Downs contest 24 days ago doesn't happen.
Still, the selection should be much more at home on York's big galloping track, and the return to fast ground is another positive. He has come a long way in a short time, and I firmly expect another career-best performance with all the boxes ticked today.
This race lacks the depth of his excellent Ascot Gold Cup win, and if there is a horse in here that will go on to dominate this division, then it's him while his giant long stride will be well at home at on the Knavesmire and he is the best horse in the race after just five outings with improvement to come.
We have already seen Inspiral and Free Wind improve significantly returned to better ground after having run at Goodwood, and he is undoubtedly no different.
If there is going to be a superstar in here, then it could be King's Gamble, who was very impressive on debut at Newmarket.
Still, there's little way to judge the form, and this race has gone to those with at least two runs under their belt, so he will make recent history, at least if he were to land this.
Haatem - 7/18.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - is continuously underestimated by the market as the odds compilers go in search of the next superstar. Still, the form in the book of the Richard Hannon two-year-old is there for all to see.
He saddles a penalty for his win for us in the Group 2 Vintage Stakes, but so did previous winners.
He moves down in distance, but he has done little wrong in his short career and bumped into arguably the best two-year-old of the season in City Of Troy whilst he holds the most substantial single piece of form with a two-length fifth in the Coventry Stakes - a race that has worked out well.
He is drawn next to the front running Action Point, and he will get a good tow into the contest under Sean Levey, and he can land a third success for Richard Hannon in the last ten years.
Kylian is tough to knock, but he might have been flattered by his third at Goodwood as the leaders tired in the closing stages, and nine of the last ten winners had run over six furlongs previous. At the same time, the other winner ran over five and a half, so he must prove his stamina, and the same applies to Johannes Brahms.
It's hard to see Haatem out of the three if on his A-game, and with trip, form and ground boxes already ticked, he makes the most appeal as the market prices up based on potential rather than solid form.
Back him at 5/16.00 or bigger.
Bradsell - 4/15.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - isn't a favourite for this. Perhaps it's recency bias because he beat Highfield Princess at Ascot fairly comfortably and now returns to the scene of his nine-length demolition job in a Maiden contest as a two-year-old.
His King Stand victory was a career-best by some margin, recording an RPR of 124, and that came on his first start over the minimum trip, having seen his stamina fade out over six furlongs.
There's little more to say other than he is the wrong price, and he should be swapped with Highfield Princess, who is currently 11/82.38. He can continue his progression.
The other I quietly fancy is Khaadem - 20/121.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who is ultimately the wrong price and arrives in the form of his career.
He won the Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot, beating Highfield Princess over six furlongs under Jamie Spencer. He was much better than the bare result against the excellent Shaquille in the July Cup. The ground went against him at Newmarket at the last hour, but he ran with extreme credit and was denied a clear passage in the closing stages.
Today, he drops back in distance to five furlongs, which is not a negative on last year's running of this race when he had the pace to lead the field until the final fifty yards.
Ryan Moore asked too much of him early last year, but I suspect Jamie Spencer will sit just off the pace and try and pounce just like he did with Equilateral on the opening day.
He is drawn perfectly to adopt these tactics in stall 10. The pace will likely come from Big Evs in stall eight, Bradsell in stall nine, and Highfield Princess won't be far away in stall six.
Khaadem could see this race set up perfectly for him, and he is certainly not the no-hoper that the market thinks.
Tafreej - 9/25.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - is a horse going the right way and bumped into a Group horse who loves Newmarket when finishing a running-on fourth on his latest outing, and the return to fast ground is sure to suit.
William Haggas' three-year-old failed to get a clear shot at things on his latest start, signalling he was handicapped to go close in a similar contest. The ground went against him, but today's fast conditions are right up his street.
He bolted up on fast ground at Yarmouth despite being poorly positioned when moved up to 1m for the first time, and he has shown race-by-race progress with each outing. We haven't seen the best of him yet, and today represents optimal conditions in a race that should be set up for him, given the strong pace on offer. He is worth keeping on side.
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