Daryl Carter's Tips: Expect the Unexpected 9/4 at Chepstow

• The ground could be the undoing for hot favourite Knappers Hill - take him on

• Arabic Legend has lots more to come

• Promoter is well-treated if he can finally put it all together

13:25 Newmarket - Back Arabic Legend @ 7/24.50 1pt

This Autumn Stakes doesn't usually attract a strong field, and this year's renewal, although full of potential, has little depth in form outside of the top two in the market.

Arabic Legend - 7/24.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - left the deep impression at Salisbury that he has more to offer, having only found top gear in chasing home the very useful Arabian Crown late in the day.

There's a good chance he found the ground too quickly at Salisbury, and today's slightly easier surface is a positive to his chances.

That performance was an improved one on his debut, which came at Newmarket's July course when he took the entire straight after the line to pull up, and given that form has worked out reasonably well. Andrew Balding debutants tend to improve, and he could have plenty more to come with this stiff finish set to suit.

I like him, but I fear the unexposed Per Contra. I'd have Arabic Legend at 11/43.75, so any bigger appeals.

14:25 York - Back Albasheer @ BSP 1pt

Yes, we are back on Albasheer - currently 11/26.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who finished like a train for us in the Ayr Gold Cup, clocking the fastest final three furlongs and the fastest final furlong in a race where it paid to be prominent.

That Ayr track rarely favours horses coming from off the pace, but that's not been the case here at York, highlighted by his dead-heat victory at big odds when we had to share the spoils frustratingly. One thing that was evident yesterday at York was the sprint races going too hard, and sometimes, in races like this big field one, it's hard for them not to, despite the conditions.

Albasheer's ideal ground would be good to firm, but if that was the case here, he might not find the leaders returning to him. He should be in an excellent position to pick up the pieces in the hope that he handles conditions (has done previously), and they go too hard with plenty of pace angles in the race.

He returns to this track that saw him to such good effect back in August, and his Ayr Gold Cup fourth gives confidence that he still has a big pot in him.

Back him at BSP, as I expect support for one or two others. The biggest danger is Significantly, who has been brilliant since fitted with cheek-pieces and won the Ayr Gold Cup with something in hand. Still, he was abysmal here on his only visit here, but he is feared most.

15:10 Chepstow - Back Unexpected Party @ 9/43.25 2pt

Unexpected Party - 9/43.25 on the Betfair Sportsbook - looks to have a right chance in turning over Knappers Hill now the ground has turned heavy, and I firmly expect the Paul Nicholls favourite to drift in the betting.

Dan Skelton's runner was frustrating last season, but he put in some very good shifts at the back end to record some good figures in defeat, so the fact that he remains a Maiden over fences is no negative to his chances.

He ran very well in the Grade 1 Turners Novices Chase at the Cheltenham Festival on soft ground and hacked up at Ascot in a Class 2 Handicap over hurdles on a deep surface, so he will have no trouble with the ground while his experience over fences as a second season Novice won't be wasted.

His rating of 142 underestimates him a touch, considering he was only beaten five lengths by two horses rated 149 at Ayr at the end of the season. At the same time, the 138-rated Theatre Glory was only a length behind Knappers Hill on his final start at Sandown (on soft ground).
There may not be as big a margin to gap as the market suggests, and in the hope that Harry Skelton is aggressive with his mount, he should be able to shake up the favourite.

It bodes well that Dan Skelton has left Unexpected Party in at Chepstow and removed all of his other runners - or at least the ones Harry was riding - likely down to the ground.

16:45 York - Back Promoter @ 13/27.50 1pt e/w (5 places)

I have had Promoter - 13/27.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - on my radar all season, but he had disappointed repeatedly. However, his latest run at Newmarket in the newly fitted blinkers showed some of that old spark that made me think he was ahead of the handicapper when rated 89.

He was unbalanced in the dip at Newmarket but ran on very strongly once hitting the rising ground and was value for more at the rear of the field in a slowly run race when clocking the fastest final furlong and the quickest final three furlongs.

In the hope that the return to a more conventional track will see him in a better light, he is surely ahead of the handicapper off of this rating of 80 on the balance of his form. He caught the eye earlier in the year when he finished the strongest (on the clock and visually) in a red-hot handicap at the Derby meeting at Epsom despite failing to handle the track.

He hasn't had many goes on a flat conventional track, and his pedigree suggests he will handle soft ground exceptionally well. There's undoubtedly a win in this horse before the season is out.

Back him at 6/17.00 or bigger.