Daryl Carter Tips

Daryl Carter's Tips: Emaraaty Ana 9/4 can scorch the Ascot turf

Daryl Carter.
Daryl Carter has seven tips on Saturday.

Daryl Carter has seven Saturday tips as he looks to Ascot, Wolverhampton, Newmarket and Redcar in the hope to bag some winners...

  • Emaraaty Ana can take advantage of the drop in grade

  • Ron O has excellent claims at Redcar

  • Mountain Peak ready to enhance excellent course form

13:30 Newmarket - Back Queen Regent @ 11/112.00 1pt

We indeed haven't seen the best of John And Thady Gosden's Queen Regent - 11/112.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - for which her handicap debut at Salisbury was a non-event when her rider Oisin Murphy got trapped on the rail and badly hampered when attempting to make her challenge.

She came home in her own time under a hand and heels ride and was tenderly handled but left the firm impression there would be another day.

The handicapper dropped her a couple of pounds for that, which is a bonus, considering I felt it was a run to put a line through quickly. The form of that race has worked out well.

The winner was dominant but is now rated 21lbs higher, having finished runner-up next time in a Listed race at Saint Cloud behind a smart J C Rouget horse who placed third in the Group 1 Prix de Royallieu when failing to see out the 1m6f next time and had been beaten two lengths previous by Melo Melo who went on to finish a neck behind Warm Heat in the Group 1 Prix Vermeille.

The collateral form through the winner looks strong, so there are no qualms about her being beaten there for all she didn't give her running, and how close she would have got is anyone's guess.

The Salisbury runner-up Truthful also ran in Listed company in France next time but was a non-stayer over 1m6f but not disgraced when beaten three lengths.

There's little doubt she has work to do on the form book with the likes of Totnes, Red Danielle and Lady Alara at bigger odds. Still, she can be forgiven for her only start on turf, and she was a drifter in the market that day alarmingly from 2/13.00 out to 4/15.00, so perhaps all wasn't right anyway.

Still, she offered plenty of promise in slowly run races on the AW before that. The filly is well-bred and a half-sister to five winners, four of which recorded RPRs in the 100s, so it is too soon to write her off, and today is likely to see a much stronger gallop with at least three that like to force the pace, and this will reveal more.

At the prices, she is worth chancing with the promise of more to offer.

13:30 Newmarket - Back Queen Regent @ 11/112.00

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13:30 Newmarket - Back Lady Boba @ 13/27.50 1pt

The second horse I want to back in here is Lady Boba - 13/27.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - for whom it would be astonishing if she wasn't better than her opening handicap mark of just 82 in time.

She quickened up very smartly on her turf debut at Ffos Las last time to quickly take care of a subsequent winner now rated 81, and her previous outing on the AW saw her split the 90-rated Intinso and the now 102-rated Real Gain.

It would be a big surprise if she didn't improve for better ground at the first attempt, given the comments of Rossa Ryan after that Ffos Las romp, and her pedigree is an illustrious one.

She is a full sister to King Of Conquest and King Vega, who both had winning form on good to firm ground. There's lots to like about her, and the best days are yet to come, so get her on side for this.

13:30 Newmarket - Back Lady Boba @ 13/27.50

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13:50 Ascot - Back Emaraaty Ana @ BSP 1.5pt

Emaraaty Ana - currently 9/43.25 on the Betfair Sportsbook - will take plenty of knocks by pundits, and I expect the market to continue to be lukewarm on his chance, so the advice is to back at BSP and hope to take advantage at around the 3/14.00 mark.

The key to Emaraaty Ana is the drop back in trip, which has seen his form figures read 23421381, and of those eight runs, the most recent five have all come in Group 1 company, including twice in the Breeders' Cup Turf in Del Mar. His last outing over this trip outside of Group 1 company came at Hamilton when an impressive winner in an excellent time.

Today's scenario is optimal for Emaraaty Ana. A stiff five furlongs suits him, and to an extent, despite being a seven-year-old, he is unexposed at this minimum trip.

Connections with him have frustrated me over the years with not dropping him back to this five-furlong distance when his profile indicates a return to this trip is the obvious decision.

Still, trainer Kevin Ryan doesn't keep things simple and complicates matters for me by applying the cheek-pieces that saw him run poorly over this trip at York in 2020.

Still, a gelding operation and the first of two wind surgeries followed that run behind Battaash in first-time cheek-pieces, so it's not conclusive whether the headgear had any positive or negative effect. Still, it has curbed my original enthusiasm, as I missed that originally.

However, this race represents such a big drop in class, and he is five pounds clear on weight-adjusted ratings from Nymphadora, who is better with cut in the ground. Korker's recent slow starts have cost him plenty, but he is a danger if breaking on terms, although he still has plenty to find even with his best efforts.

The draw may be another concern for Emaraaty Ana. Still, I firmly expect him to be one of the sole pace angles in this race, and his defeat over six furlongs last time at York is better than the recent winning form of Korker and any rival in this race.

The big danger could be the unexposed Rage Of Bamby, who wasn't far behind the selection at York last time and is back at five furlongs also.

However, overcomplicating matters has been a big issue of mine these past two months, and I want to stick with the best horse in the race.

In terms of price, 9/43.25 is acceptable. I think bigger will be available closer to the off.

13:50 Ascot - Back Emaraaty Ana @ BSP

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15:35 Ascot - Back Escobar @ BSP 1pt

There is a significant draw bias at Ascot, and despite narrowing the track for this meeting, high numbers still prevail. That's a huge positive for backers of Fresh towards the top of the market, and he ticks plenty of boxes while Baradar less so on drying ground.

The draw will be an issue for the admirable Quinault, who will provide the pace for the low draw runners, including Hickory in stall two, Biggles in eight, Orbaan in seven, Bless Him in three and Blue For You in stall four.

Ordinarily, those mentioned above would all have something to recommend, but a race of this nature means you have to be cutthroat regarding the draw bias.

Lethal Levi and Glenfinnan, I have stamina doubts, so I chopped them along with the out-of-form Ancestral Land and the short-priced and popular Fresh, which left me with a shortlist of five.

I am a big fan of Popmaster, but his season has consisted of trying to get the job done each and anywhere they see fit, and saddling a penalty for this is no positive to note. I also feel some ran below form at Newbury, so I am happy to leave him be.

Regarding penalties, Pearle D'or saddles one for a Newbury heavy ground romp. That was impressive. He has thrived since the hood went on, and moving up to seven furlongs with six, clearly a trip too short on his first four outings for this yard. It would be folly to think he doesn't have more to offer, particularly now tackling a big field scenario when he should see him travel into the contest strongly, and he boasts two good efforts at this venue this season.

His Dam had no problem with fast ground - she recorded her highest RPR on it, so there's little worry on that front. He is eligible for lesser races than this, so confidence is clearly high in the camp. You can see why they tried the cheek-pieces on him - though he is a little wayward under pressure - he is hard to ignore at the foot of the weights.

However, it's paid to be with the highest-rated runners in this field in the last ten years. Only one winner has been rated below 100: Raising Sand (97). I want Pearle D'Or on side for Champions Day with cut in the ground.

Left on my shortlist was Rhoscolyn, Atrium and Escobar - currently 14/115.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook.

Escobar will need a bit of luck in running, considering the field may converge to the stand side, but there is no better-handicapped horse in the race.

My esteemed colleague Tony Calvin has beaten me to the punch here in written form, at least, with the support of last year's winner Escobar and nicked the 20/121.00 price.

Still, he appeals at those odds if you want to back each way, but I favour win-only - like Tony - so I am happy to hope for bigger at BSP.

The David O'Meara runner won this race last year when unfavoured by jockey Jason Watson, and he is seemingly again, but he returns to the race having shown plenty of old zest when running on at the death in the Ayr Gold Cup.

He and Rohaan had to sit and suffer a steadily run affair, but he booted home, and the aforementioned got the job done at Ascot yesterday.

That's a good confidence booster, considering the handicapper dropped Escobar six pounds for his run over an inadequate six furlongs last time down to 94.

He is now 13 pounds lower than when he won last term in comfortable style, and he has had the same prep for this race. The cheek-pieces go on, which is an unknown (made him keen early in his career), but he has clearly been set up for another crack at this and big odds he is worth chancing from a fair draw in stall ten.

15:35 Ascot - Back Escobar @ BSP

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16:30 Redcar - Back Ron O @ 9/110.00 1pt

Finding a horse in from horse a deep race like this Straight-Mile Series Final Handicap at Redcar is hard enough, and this track has a significant draw bias, so much so that I would be avoiding those drawn in double-figure stalls.

Those drawn particularly low also seem to find trouble in running as the field converges to the rail.

Ron O - 9/110.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - is drawn well in stall seven, and while he is not your typical sexy-profiled horse, he does have very strong claims in this event. He has a course record reading 2112, and his latest second saw him split two next-time-out winners with the victor, an unexposed three-year-old he attempted to give plenty of weight to.

Interestingly enough, both the winner and the second who scored next time were well placed in a steadily run affair, and the selection was unfavoured by his racing position.

We followed the fourth from that race next time for the same reason, Stressfree, who traded at 1.758/11 in the running at Ayr next time before getting collared late on.

Ron O clocked the fastest final five furlongs in the race and finished with a flurry at the line. That run marked him down as one ahead of the handicapper still, and having been left on the same mark he is hard to ignore with a steadily improving profile. He has gone under the radar and, granted a bit of luck, can enhance his already good course record.

Back him at 7/18.00 or bigger.

16:30 Redcar - Back Ron O @ 9/110.00

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16:45 Ascot - Back Mountain Peak @ 4/15.00 1pt win

Mountain Peak - 4/15.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - had been in the doldrums for some time, and it's been a long time between drinks, but he bounced back to form in no uncertain terms when returning to Ascot last month only to be narrowly denied by a thriving rival in Call Me Ginger.

He outrun his 28/129.00 odds on that occasion, which fell in line with his previous excellent course form, so he is of obvious interest back at this venue for just the second time since July 2022. Ross Coakley took the ride that day on the selection but couldn't get himself organised in time to really ask for maximum effort, and by the time he did, Call Me Ginger had gotten past, and he ran on again at the finish.

That would have been very frustrating for his backers at big odds, but Tom Marquand now gets the call-up to return to the saddle.

Marquand has partnered with this horse on many occasions, including when making all to win the Heritage Handicap here in July last year off a rating 102.

Today, Mountain Peak sits on a mark of just 92, having started the season in May (five runs ago) rated 104. There were good signs here last time out that he retained all of his ability from last term, and while this is a deeper race, he is drawn well in stall 13 against the stands rail and should have little competition for the lead.

In the hope that Marquand can make all of the running onboard this well-handicapped course specialist, he makes stacks of appeal. The drying ground is a big positive - many boxes are ticked to return to winning ways.

16:45 Ascot - Back Mountain Peak @ 4/15.00

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19:30 Wolverhampton - Back Minnetonka @ 7/24.50 1pt

Richard Hannon likely holds the key to this race, but his filly Minnetonka - 7/24.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - appeals most from a good draw in stall four, having left the impression she had more to offer at Newmarket last time.

The three-year-old was left poorly positioned at HQ but found plenty when in the clear in an attempt to run down those ridden more forward. That race has worked out well. The winner, Kinta (100), is a very useful prospect and surely a Listed winner in waiting, having been second in the Group 3 Keeneland Stakes at Ascot last year (Minnetonka 4th) and improved for the fitting of the hood for the first time.

The runner-up, Frankness, who was also well positioned, had scored for this column at Salisbury on her penultimate start, and the selection did well to dead-heat for that spot, clocking the fastest final three furlongs and final furlong in the process.

The filly is only one pound higher in the handicap here, and on that evidence, a rating in the mid-80s is surely well within reach. A positive is returning to the AW scene in which her only try outside of pattern company resulted in an authoritative victory at this venue two starts back in the Racing League off five pounds lower.

Back her at 11/43.75 or bigger.

19:30 Wolverhampton - Back Minnetonka @ 7/24.50

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Since Jan 1st 2023 - Updated Monthly - Next update November 1st

Advised Stakes = +69.5pts ROI 6.75%

BSP = +76.4pts ROI +7.4%

Antepost P/L since Jan 1st 2023

Advised Stakes = +34.6pts


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