Daryl Carter has two bets on Tuesday looking at both of the Listed events at Lingfield with Queen Aminatu for William Haggas a mover in the market...
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Queen Aminatu can land back-to-back wins at Lingfield
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Empress Wu can relish the return to AW
Queen Aminatu - 4/15.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - ran as well as she ever had on turf at Ascot 31 days ago. Still, she is easily a ten-pound better horse than that performance on the AW and switched back to Lingfield today, where she boasts an excellent record, is a big positive to her chances.
She rates the form horse in this race with her brilliant two-length second in the Group 3 Chartwell Stakes here in May behind the smart pair Sacred and Sandrine, while her latest run on the AW at Chelmsford is easily forgiven having had to come from well-off a slow gallop when held up at the rear of the field.
Today's race should provide a stronger pace for William Haggas' filly, who is drawn wide in stall 11, and the move back up to 1m is a huge positive, having won this race last year on her only attempt on the AW surface when recording her joint best RPR of 110.
She will have a very good winter on the AW, and none have a sharper turn of foot than her, so she gets a confident vote back at a venue where she has a 2-3 67% record, with the other defeat in a far stronger contest than this.
Nigiri is feared the most, having been on an upward curve earlier this season.
She appeals at 11/43.75 or bigger.
It's hard to know what favourite Divine Jewel has achieved this season with mixed results at this level and the form hardly proving reliable. Still, she is very much respected for her best efforts despite her only victory in a handicap here of 75.
It might pay to chance one of the three-year-olds who hold further scope for improvement, and Empress Wu - 8/19.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - scored emphatically on her debut here over the now 103-rated Silver Sword. Since then, she has been given some challenging tasks in Group and Listed company, but this looks the weakest of the lot, and perhaps a return to this venue will reignite that spark she showed the first time out.
David Simcock knows this family well, and they all have thrived on the AW, so there's a good chance that she will put in an improved performance today.
She is now in a race where she is second top-rated, and that's not been the case in any other start this season.
The booking of Jim Crowley catches the eye, and he is back on board for the first time since the Musdidora at York. I expect a big showing today from a fair draw in stall five and stepping up further in the trip. Her Sire and Dam both relished this sort of distance, and she is open to improvement after just five starts - particularly back at Lingfield.
I make her more of a 5/16.00 chance, so any bigger is acceptable.
It is a rare trip outside of Europe for the column, but Vauban - currently 9/4 on the Betfair Sportsbook but 4.2 on the Exchange- is one of two that is going to get some of my cash as he bids to land the Group 1 (handicap) Melbourne Cup.
Favoured of my two bets is undoubtedly Vauban, who the racing gods have dealt good cards with a fantastic draw in stall three and the weather playing ball with the ground on the quicker side of good. He has been granted a very fair racing weight in contrast to some of the better-known British and Irish rivals, and he arrives with easily the most potent form in the race.
There's not a box that Vauban doesn't tick, and with Ryan Moore back in the saddle, a likely good position from "barrier" three, he must have every chance of landing this prize in what has been the plan since his Juvenile Triumph Hurdle win at the Cheltenham Festival in 2022.
It's a positive that his stalls exit improved at Naas when landing a Group 3, having had to be rushed away on his first start in Britain on the flat when easily beating the subsequent Ebor winner and stablemate Absurde by seven lengths at Royal Ascot - and that one is not weighted to reverse the form.
While his Royal Ascot form has worked out every way you turn, his Ballyroan Stakes Group 3 win at Naas over Valiant King was authoritative also despite over a trip too short and on an unfavourable slow surface.
Still, the runner-up, Valiant King, finished sixth in the beaten five lengths in the Caufield Cup when continuously denied a clear run in the home straight and unable to get fully wound up.
He makes plenty of appeal as the form horse, unexposed and with all the boxes ticked, so providing he is as comfortable in Aus as he was in England and Ireland, he will be hard to beat.
Willie Mullins has longed for a Melbourne Cup and described Vauban as the best chance he has ever had and may ever have - read Ryan Moore's thoughts here.
Use the Betfair Exchange for a better price and back win only no shorter than 3/1. Although I do expect his price to level out later this evening, so using BSP is advised.
I will have a saver on my old pal Soulcombe, who has a bigger performance in him, but this is Willie Mullins' time.