Cheltenham Festival Focus: 16/1 and 14/1 two-pronged attack can Triumph in 2024

• Encanto Bruno impresses, but there's 20 better in Ireland

• Flooring Porter should not be underestimated

• Stop making the same mistakes with horses like Mozzie

• Time to back Juveniles is now

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A brief introduction

Suppose you're new to this column, welcome. We have been running for as long as I can remember, but since moving to the Betfair website in the last two years, our overall P/L for this column is +34.5 points.

In year one (2022), we made a loss of 4.5 points, with Vauban 10/111.00 and Constitution Hill 6/17.00 not enough to put us in the positive while Janidil 10/111.00, Mister Coffey 12/113.00 and Gericault Roque 12/113.00 all placed second.

In year two (2023 picture below), Staked: 29pts Returned: 68pts P/L = +39pts

Sire Du Berlais 100/1101.00 and El Fabiolo 6/17.00 were our two winners, but as you can see, we had many running for us at much lower prices than advised, beating the market in the main.

This year will follow the same format, with all selections listed in every column weekly with the tipped and current up-to-date prices.

I will pick up all the races of note throughout the past week and give them an in-depth analysis, including circuit time figures, race comparisons, form watching and more, while ending the column with an ante-post bet on most weeks to help us build a strong portfolio to put us in the best position for the Festival in March.

Let's quickly reflect on last season

Bumper horses

Starting with the Champion Bumper form. There was no stand-out horse going into the contest, it was quantity over quality, with 50% of the field represented by Willie Mullins, who only managed second with favourite Fact To File 16/54.20.

It was the first running since 2018 that we had a favourite bigger than 2/13.00.

However, it's challenging to say the form is no good at this stage; after all, form is only ever as good as the horses in the crop, and these - outside of Ballyburn and Mirazur West - are the best heading into the Novice Hurdle division.

The race recorded an on-par RPR of 137, which is middle of the road compared to the other races run in the last ten years but below Facile Vega, Sir Gerhard, Ferny Hollow, Moon Racer and Silver Concorde.

A glance at the Supreme Novice Hurdle market sees Champion Bumper winner A Dream To Share (who has already missed an engagement this season) as a 5/16.00 market leader while the next five in the betting didn't run in the Champion Bumper.

In conclusion, both Novice Hurdles look wide open this season.

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Novice Hurdlers

The Novice Hurdlers from last season, starting with the two-milers, did have a couple of stand-out horses, and I'm sorry for stating the obvious.

Supreme Novice Hurdle winner Marine Nationale was dominant in victory over Facile Vega with nothing else remotely close to the quality of the first two.

As for horses in behind, the third and sixth Diverge and Dark Raven are no longer with us, while the six-length fourth Inthepocket failed to have the pace to compete but did pick up a soft enough Grade 1 at Aintree and holds the potential to improve for fences but likely upped in distance.

The Ballymore division looked even thinner on the ground. Impaire Et Passe was a runaway winner, but this season stays over hurdles and searches for the scalp of the unbeaten Constitution Hill in the Champion Hurdle. Gaelic Warrior - a six-length runner-up - has been touted for the 3m Brown Advisory Chase.

The 3m hurdle crop - similar to those behind Impaire Et Passe - was much of a muchness. Stay Away Fay was a good winner of the race over the 150/1151.00 chance Affordable Fury, but six lengths were separating the first six home, and filling that final position was the 133-rated Thomas Mor.

The Albert Bartlett winner has since been beaten at Aintree, which is worth taking with a pinch of salt for now, but all will need to find some improvement for the move to fences.

Overall, this season's Brown Advisory and Turners Chase look open betting heats. Still, the Arkle is a two-horse race with the expectation for Marine Nationale and Facile Vega to dominate unless something extraordinary comes from the woodwork.

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Novice Chasers

The 2m Novice Chase division was another with two stand-out horses. El Fabiolo, to his credit, despite throwing in the odd hairy leap, swept the division aside. Still, runner-up Jonbon has since delivered an even better performance in the Celebration Chase at Sandown on his seasonal bow.

These two look a firm notch above the rest of the Novice Chasers from last term, and they have every chance of dominating the 2m Champion Chase with that division crying out for new blood.

In contrast, the 2m4f Turners Chase was a poor renewal. The race was run at a dawdling gallop and dictated by Stage Star, who got a freebie on the front end, while the runner-up, Notlongtillmay, was well positioned throughout.

The ill-fated Mighty Potter was a disappointment while Appreciate It's best days are behind him. It doesn't look strong form, and they will all struggle in open company this year, meaning the Ryanair Chase will have an open look.

The 3m Brown Advisory winner, The Real Wacker, put in a gutsy front-running performance over Gerri Colombe, who was given a questionable ride, having finished excellently well.

However, that race looks thin on the ground with a lack of quality behind. The best horse finished second, and I firmly expect Gerri Colombe to be the sole star that rises from that division and makes the leap to the Gold Cup level.

In conclusion, the 2m Champion Chase looks like a closed ante-post market, the Ryanair Chase will prove wide open, and Gerri Colombe 6/17.00 is the horse that could shake up the Gold Cup market.

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20/121.00 Captain Teague would relish Albert Bartlett test

We rewind to the 13th of October at the Chepstow Seasonal opener, and conditions played havoc on the first day with the ground deteriorating throughout, so getting any comparative form was tough.

Paul Nicholls' Captain Teague impressed, winning at the first time of asking over obstacles when conceding experience to everything in the field. He was big and bold at the first flight, good at most, but threw in the odd sloppy jump as you would expect from a Novice making their first start in public over hurdles.

Still, I liked his early enthusiasm, but he switched off down the back and then came alive under Harry Cobden when asked to close entering the home straight.

The finishing effort was perhaps underwhelming, given the expectation, but he hit the front on the bridle and idled but ran out a ready winner.

He only had to run to 135 to win that despite all of his rivals holding previous winning form - most of it came over the summer months - and this being a Grade 2.

There's little doubt that he will be a force in British Novice Hurdles, and he will follow the same route as Hermes Allen by heading to Cheltenham's November meeting before the Challow Hurdle at Newbury. Would I be taking the 16/117.00 for the Supreme Novice Hurdle? Hell no!

If there's one thing that sprung to mind when he ground out the finish at Chepstow, it was that he looks like a stayer and a slogger.

His high rounded knee action suggests soft ground will be a preference, while his ability to switch off in races could be positive over long trips. He will surely be targeted at the Ballymore 12/113.00, given his class, but I would be more interested in Albert Bartlett, for which he is 20/121.00.

Still, with this performance rated 135 in my book, he has a long way to go before becoming a festival winner, but improvement is almost a given.

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Action round up

At Chepstow on the 13th of October, Chianti Classico won his Novice Chase debut well in testing conditions at Chepstow, and he seemed to love being booted into a fence. He came from an unpromising position to win this well in a slowly run race to gain an RPR of 144.

He is lightly raced, and he took the scalp of last year's Kim Muir runner-up Stumptown in his Point-To-Point. How high he can go remains to be seen, but he now has a rating of 141, and I expect him to be targeted at one of the festival handicaps if kept lightly raced. Keep him on the radar.

At Thurles on Thursday, 19th October, Brighterdaysahead - now 7/18.00 for the Mares Novice Hurdle - remained unbeaten on her Maiden Hurdle debut with an impressive ten-length victory. She probably doesn't want to make her own running and won as the market expected at 1/4f but was much slower than the following handicap hurdle won by a 95-rated handicapper. She's probably much better than this, but for now, there was little substance.

On Saturday, 21st October, Willie Mullins' High Class Hero made it 3-3 over hurdles with an easy 2m5f victory over second-season Novice The Big Doyen, recording the highest RPR in the last ten years in that race of 149. That RPR means he must be taken seriously now, and it will be interesting to see where he goes next when tackling stronger opposition - I have him running to 142.

At Limerick on 22nd October, Quilixios made a winning chase debut over the useful 140-rated hurdler Cool Survivor despite blundering his way around the track. He is a very smart horse, but he jumps drastically out to the right, and that's no good for Cheltenham.

One to watch

Hometown Boy is one to keep on the right side of for handicap purposes soon, having shaped very well at Carlisle despite being off the track for nearly 1,000 days.

At Carlisle on Thursday, 26th October, Good Risk At All made a positive start to life over fences when winning a strong-looking 2m4f Novices Chase by 16 lengths. He took an age to get his jumping correct over hurdles but was well supported in the market into 6/5f to make a winning start, and he jumped as well as he ever has.

This was another Sam Thomas horse to make a winning seasonal return, but it's worth noting that he made a bright start at this venue last season before failing to go on and improve. It's also worth remembering that Alaphalippe and Hometown Boy attempted to defy significant absences.

Giovinco 16/117.00 for the Brown Advisory Chase- the big talking horse - was dethroned as favourite with the strength of support for the winner. Still, the imposing sort jumped well and was in contention before getting the third last all wrong and unseating his rider.

It's worth noting that he was being nudged down the neck before his mishap, and unfortunately, we didn't get to see what he had left in the tank, particularly given the winner was travelling so well at the time.

He remains with potential but is too short to take that price.

At Clonmel, on the 26th of October, Limerick Lace won in good style on seasonal return and could prove a dark horse for the Mares Chase - Betfair - please price this one up!

At Kelso, on the 28th of October, Grand National winner Corach Rambler - 33/134.00 for the Gold Cup - was well held on seasonal return, but he has a poor record fresh, and it's not wise to take that literally.

He will come on for the run and improve throughout the season, but the same people backing him for a Gold Cup are the same ones who said Tiger Roll could win it. Just don't.

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Stayers' Hurdle division is just poor

On Saturday, 4th of November, the Grade 2 West Yorkshire Hurdle, typically used as a springboard for Stayers' Hurdle hopes, was won by Botox Has, who now has form figures of 12111 when fresh and completing on a racecourse. He took the scalp of last year's Lanzarote runner-up, Red Risk, which ties in with West Balboa, who won the Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle at Aintree last year.

The 2023 Cheltenham Festival Stayers' Hurdle runner-up Dashel Drasher - now 50/151.00 for the same race in March - could only muster third, while Thyme Hill - also currently 50/151.00 - was even more disappointing, running fourth.

This race highlights the lack of quality in the three-mile open hurdle division and again suggests the Stayer's Hurdle division is crying out for new blood.

I am happy with where my mind sits in this division and have a horse in mind for the coming weeks. None of the above will be winning at Cheltenham this term, although I remember being on the rail last year watching Thyme Hill come home very tired at Exeter, and it might be the case that he needs the run these days, although I don't hold your breath with him.

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The same old Mozzie mistakes

The Cheltenham Showcase meeting saw the ground deteriorate over the two days, and those running on Saturday were ultimately encountering ground on the softer side of good-to-soft.

My Mate Mozzie - 33/134.00 for the Arkle - won with ease in the Novices Chase on Friday, 27th October, over three rivals and couldn't have been more impressive winning in a hack canter, seemingly getting some people rather excited.

What a performance

My Mate Mozzie is a brilliant winner of the https://t.co/sHH6onIVS9 Novices' Chase@gavincromwell1 | @donoghue_keith | @squareintheair pic.twitter.com/WQ5EevBCnb

-- CheltenhamRacecourse (@CheltenhamRaces) October 27, 2023

He was less fluent over his fences than he had been on his previous outing when beaten on chase debut at Fairyhouse by a subsequent winner in The Big Chap. The visual impression was there, but he was out to his right and allowed to get away with mistakes thanks to the slow, dawdling pace.

The first port of call is always the form book, and considering he was exposed over hurdles (rated 146) and beaten under claimers in handicaps, it's wise not to get carried away with a visual impression; after all, everything needs substance for the Cheltenham Festival.

The British team could only muster a mere three runners, and considering the talk from Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson at the lack of Novice Chase races this season with the programme change, you'd have to fear for the home team in this division.

I had the runner-up of Paul Nicholls' Jetronic, running to 125 in France on his chase debut. He had two starts over hurdles when well beaten before making a winning debut over fences on his third. It's never a positive that a four-year-old like this went straight over the larger obstacles without much experience, which is the first red flag.

The third, Al Zaraqaan, had an inflated rating of 135, having won three races at Southwell and Uttoxeter during the summer and was saddling a double penalty attempting to give the winner eight pounds - I can't believe he has got a mention in this column!

All four jumped the last together, including Walk In Clover, who is a 121-rated Mare and was giving the 146-rated My Mate Mozzie one pound running over the shortest trip she had encountered in her career and is 2-12 over fences.

My Mate Mozzie won in a canter, and rightly so; no one should have expected anything else given the weights and measures and the fact that he was just a better horse than those he was facing - but remember, they all jumped the last together - how far would these have been beaten by El Fabiolo or even Facile Vega?

My Mate Mozzie suffered defeat on Chase's debut to The Big Chap, who won the next time out but scrapped home, giving seven pounds to a Chase debutant rated 113, and The Big Chap didn't even go off favourite next time at Galway.

No substance to the performance

We must put these performances into perspective when thinking about ante-post betting, and RPRs are always a good indication. My Mate Mozzie received an initial RPR of 132 before changing it to 139.

The 139 RPR is seven pounds lower than this race's last winner, Straw Fan Jack, and ten pounds lower than Third Time Lucki. It was the lowest rating in the last ten years of that race, and you'll remember Straw Fan Jack went off at 50/151.00 for the Arkle and was beaten 27 lengths, suggesting even his current 33/134.00 is not value.

We go to the clock for further information despite the bare form telling us enough that this was not a performance to go overboard about.

My Mate Mozzie ran the fastest 2m circuit time on my figures of all the chasers that ran on Friday and were quicker three out to the finish. With the ground deteriorating, the only real comparative race was the 2m4f Novices Chase won by Idalko Bihoue. Both races were run at a plodding pace. And neither are worthy of ratings above 135 - you need to be 160+ to win an Arkle.

There's further evidence in the sectionals, but I think enough column space has been wasted. I urge people to stop making the same mistakes year after year with horses with no substance that are just grabbing good opportunities in October.

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It's a knockout performance from Bruno...but it's only round one

Encanto Bruno has the class to rank high in the Novice Hurdle division
and impressed me when running out the winner of the Novices Hurdle. Despite winning in a similar style as My Mate Mozzie, there was far more substance to this performance.

He won very easily and recorded a solid RPR of 142. It isn't easy to compare this race to previous years, as it changed from 2m5f to 2m4f in 2018, but he looked like a classy Novice Hurdler.

The form, unfortunately, is only so-so.

However, the runner-up, Mel Monroe, is thought something of, and did a good speed figure coming into the race when winning off the front at Downpatrick. Tag Man had some useful form in defeat last season and has probably run up to his best, with his previous victory coming in a slow speed figure - this was better.

This form can rate in the low 130s for now, and I had provisionally (before RPRs came out) given him a rating of 138 for this.

Interestingly, the Racing Post comments have suggested that this race was run at a slow pace - yet they raved about Look Away's Grade 2 victory.

For readers' benefit, I have compared all the 2m circuit times of the hurdlers on the Friday card, so you don't have to rely on that sometimes Racing Post nonsense.

Encanto Bruno - 3.12.75 (Midfield)
Our Champ - 3.11.31 (Promient)
Look Away - 3.13.47 (Led)
Pinnacle Peak 3.18.00 (Prominent)

Below are the finishing efforts from two out to the line from the same races.

Encanto Bruno - 38.75
Our Champ - 40.31
Look Away - 40.72
Pinnacle Peak - 41.69

Encanto Bruno's race did not go a breakneck gallop, but it was a true enough pace compared to the rest of the card. The impressive part is his finishing effort from his position and the fact that he was hard on the bridle at the line.

He is a fair 25/126.00 for the Supreme Novice Hurdle and not priced for the Ballymore (despite running over 2m4f here).

Still, he could end up with a lenient mark in the high 130s or low 140s if he falls short of the top Novices, and given he is now 2-2 in impressive style at Cheltenham, he could be one for a big handicap come March at worst. He is worth keeping on side for now.

I wouldn't even consider anything else on Friday.

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10/111.00 Flooring Porter is not one to underestimate

It is early days, but Flooring Porter's victory on the second day of the Cheltenham Showcase meeting excited me. The chase debutant looked far more relaxed than at any point over hurdles last season and was happy to take the lead in the early stages from Broadway Boy, banishing his tearaway tag from seasons past.

His fluent jumping and natural speed saw him take up the lead at the seventh, and he jumped like an experienced handicapper, being low and efficient at his fences.

Flooring Porter made mistakes at 13th and 14th when dragging his hindlegs through the fence and then took off a mile too soon at the top of the hill, almost bringing him to a halt.

Still, he galloped relentlessly and acted well to correct at three out. He was swift at the tricky second last and final flights before quickening away under hand and heels by two lengths.

Speedy for a stayer

Heading to the form book, he was initially given an RPR of 141 before that was changed to 148, which looks far more like it. He received five pounds from the 137-rated Broadway Boy, who had a progressive profile and was an easy winner at Worcester on Chase debut and had previously won his last two starts of last season over hurdles, including at Cheltenham in April.

There was expectation in the market from last year's Albert Bartlett seventh Weveallbeencaught on chase debut, but he lacked the pace to lay a glove on the winner, and his rating of 135 is probably about right, and he has no chance at Cheltenham.

The fourth Toss Again was attempting to give away eight pounds, and he is flattered by his 140 rating and more like 134 in my book.

While this form could be stronger, it rates okay. The clock tells a good story of what the winner achieved. Below is the final two-mile circuit time for the chase races on the card (Flooring Porter, the final chase race on the worst of the ground) with the comparison to the 2m chase winner Dancing On My Own, who would have had the best of the ground very interesting indeed.

(3m) Flooring Porter - 3.12.69
(3m) The Whacker Clan - 3.17.42
(2m) Dancing On My Own - 3.10.66

Below is the finishing effort three out to the line.

Flooring Porter - 54.22
The Wacker Clan - 58.63
Dancing On My Own - 56.32

A good performance from Flooring Porter in a good comparative time on chasing debut, and it's a positive that he has done this over the Brown Advisory course and distance. He has all the right attributes to make his presence felt in that race in March, for which he is now a 10/111.00 chance.

That's tempting, given we discussed that Albert Bartlett had no stand-out candidates last year, and the Brown Advisory has favoured those making the running or prominent in recent times.

The concern is that he will be nine at the festival, but this classy former Grade 1 Stayer's Hurdle winner could be around in the Novice division at the right time.

I am happy to hold off, but I want to get into this division early. He has set a high bar, but Willie Mullins has a host of horses for this division, according to his stable tour, so it's likely to develop late.

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Game performances, but no Gold Cup winner at Wetherby

Bravemansgame faulted at the finish in the Grade 2 Charlie Hall Chase and handed Gentlemansgame victory with a poor jump at the last, having been on the bridle between the second and final fences.

Ahoy Senor led the four runners until he started to fall behind at the 11th, replicating last year's run, and Bravemansgame took up the running. Still, Gentlemansgame matched him stride for stride down the back until coming under pressure between the third and second last.

Still, Harry Cobden was trying to play it too smart by not kicking on with the 2023 Gold Cup runner-up and paid for a final flight mistake. He gave six pounds to the progressive runner-up who was race fit, and with this, that one's early season target, it was no lousy run and should put him spot on for the King George.

In terms of the Gold Cup, Bravemansgame is now 8/19.00. That's a fair price, but for all of his quality, I can't get rid of the image of him walking over the line in last year's race. I wonder if he loves an uphill finish and has work to do with Galopin Des Champs to reverse the form.

Gentlemansgame is now a 25/126.00 chance, so the market has not taken this form too literally. Still, it was only the seven-year-old's third run over fences and first over three miles, so there's undoubtedly scope for improvement.

He will have a joyous season, but he looks more like a National-type horse to me, and I worry if he will have the pace to prove fully effective around Cheltenham, for which this season will be his first-ever visit. He is best watched for now.

Ahoy Senor is now 66/167.00 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, and it's tough to see him winning the race for all he is a better horse in the spring.

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Back Juvenile pair to Triumph at 16/1 and 14/1

It's the start of November, so while both bets are a little swing, there's enough substance to suggest the two horses advised will shorten the moment they make their British and Irish debuts, and lessons have been learned from this division last term.

The Triumph Hurdle market is priced as though none have run. That's good news for us, given the two below pulled well clear in what is typically one of the strongest 3-year-old French races of the season in the Listed Prix Wild Monarch in Auteuil, and the market hasn't reflected that.

Sir Gino - 16/117.00 top price with Betfair for the Triumph Hurdle - won the Listed Prix Wild Monarch in April and has joined Nicky Henderson and will race in the Donnelly colours.

He was very keen during the early part of the race in France. He travelled powerfully at the head of affairs and pulled well clear of the remainder along with the runner-up but, despite those early excursions, found plenty for minimal pressure under hand and heels in a well-run contest.

That was an excellent debut performance, and the speed figure for the race was useful. That effort clocked a 30-length quicker overall time than the same course and distance (given an RPR of 109) contest two races earlier, which entitles this race to be rated at least 127 in my book, while the third, fourth and fifth are all subsequent winners to give the form substance.

Both Sir Gino and the second are likely to be a good way ahead of anything that arrives in Britain or Ireland, and given the typical lack of competition in the Juvenile division in the past few years in Britain, there's a good chance that he will be victorious in many of his soft trials before the festival.

Getting him on the side looks paramount for this race come March. The only opportunity to do that is before he runs, particularly since improvement is almost a given now he has moved to Nicky Henderson, who is no stranger to the Triumph Hurdle, with winners in Peace And Co, Pentland Hills and a couple of strong, but unsuccessful favourites in recent times.

Given the Irish dominance in this division, the second from the Prix Grandak in Salvator Mundi - 14/115.00 for the Triumph Hurdle - could easily turn out to be the best of the pair. He has joined Willie Mullins and will also run in the Donnaly colours.

He perhaps had more on his plate than the winner above, having travelled very powerfully in the depths of midfield. He makes as much appeal, if not more.

The expression on Mullins' face when talking about this horse during a recent stable tour suggested he was looking forward to the challenge with Henderson to see who comes out on top for the owners. He will likely gain more substance to his form on his way to March, with Irish Juveniles typically stronger in that department, and he will be battle-hardened.

The market doesn't reflect what these two have already achieved, even though it has applied the Willie Mullins tax to Salvator Mundi. There's a good chance we will see both of these this month in the coming weeks - with Henderson's Sir Gino possibly at the Cheltenham November meeting for the Grade 2 contest.

While backing two horses for a race this far out is not something I typically like, there is value at a coupled price of 13/27.50. I almost did it in 2022 with Vauban 14/115.00 and Pied Piper 16/117.00 but got lucky with the correct choice in the former, although on the day when they were 6/42.50 and 7/24.50.

The same applied this year when I advised Blood Destiny at 33/134.00 and kicked myself for not pairing with Lossiemouth at 10/111.00 - they again had an SP of 3/14.00 and 11/82.38.

So, this term, I am happy to start the column with two horses who are almost certain to be towards the head of the market at Xmas and then let this division play out.

Until next week, be lucky.

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Read Daryl Carter's daily tips here.