Daryl Carter Tips

Daryl Carter's Tips: Cicero is the gift that can keep on giving

  • Daryl Carter
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Daryl Carter.
Daryl Carter says followers can be greedy in Thoroughbred Stakes at Goodwood

Daryl Carter heads to Goodwood on Friday and has seven selections but expects one or two non-runners...


There is plenty of selections in the column today, but I anticipate one or two non-runners. Just to add to this week's P/L, after including 31st July runners, the July P/L sat at +13.59 to advised stakes.

Onto today's action...


Listen to Day Four Glorious Goodwood Tips on Racing Only Bettor...


13:50 Goodwood - Back Super Superjack @ 6/17.00 1pt

A smashing renewal with any amount to consider, but this is no afterthought for Olly Muprhy's Super Superjack - 6/17.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who shaped well in two prep runs for this contest and, on the latest evidence, now looks ready to strike.

The seven-year-old has been brought along slowly this season since returning from a 654-day break with an encouraging run at Nottingham before showing up well at Ascot in a hot race last time. He is crying for a return to this 2m4f stamina-sapping trip. His only effort over this extreme distance came in this race two years ago for his former handler, when he was a very unlucky second, having been denied a clear run continuously before getting out late in the day.

He finished with running there and in the Shergar Cup at Ascot next time when a similar scenario unfolded.

He is undoubtedly well treated from this lower mark and must be going close. Many of these have had a tough season, but the selection arrives here fresh, and this is his ultimate target. He makes plenty of appeal, and I expect him to go off favourite for this, so any 4/15.00 or bigger is acceptable.


14:25 Goodwood - Back Socialite @ 11/26.50 1pt e/w W/O Al Musmak

Charles Hills' Socialite - 11/26.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - looks like excellent value in the W/O market, and the unexposed three-time raced improver may get the run of the race from a good draw in stall two.

There are several angles from which to expect improvement from Socialite, including the move to fast ground. He ran much better than the bare result at Newmarket last time on good to soft ground, but his pedigree points to a quicker surface, which will see him in a better light.

The main angle is through sectional timings. Socialite ran the first four furlongs at Newmarket quicker than the comparable 1m race on the card, won by Sterling Knight by 18 lengths. He was quicker than the leader of that group by 16.5 lengths through the first four furlongs.

The first four furlongs are imperative in this angle as he was also quicker than two of the three six-furlong races through the first four furlongs and only 0.04 secs slower than the other winner (led), Sergent Wilko.

That immediately suggests he has done too much early in his race. He was eight lengths quicker than Al Musmak and only 4.5 slower inside the final two furlongs despite having raced alone down the centre of the track.

The overall combined sectional times see Socialite run 99.25 and Al Musmak run 98.54, but the race was won and lost inside the first four furlongs. It was a big effort from both horses on the clock, but the selection raced alone and had just his third start.

No horse will be quicker than Socialite from the gates in today's race. He should be able to get on the front end of the pace with little pressure for the lead. Today's much easier mile will benefit him greatly, and if Tom Marquand can correct the fractions today, he should be very tough to pass. 9/25.50 or bigger in this market is acceptable.


14:25 Goodwood - Back Al Musmak @ 3/14.00 2pt

Al Musmak--3/14.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook--was comfortably on top at Newmarket at the finish, signalling a return to form following two below-par efforts this term. Outside of his two down-the-field runs at York and Ascot, he has been a model of consistency, and his form is of the highest level.

He may have needed his seasonal return at York in the Dante, but he confirmed he was a non-stayer over ten furlongs at Ascot next time.

Those two efforts aside, he had found only Rosallion too good at Ascot in the Pat Eddery Stakes (Dancing Gemini behind) and Coral-Eclipse third Ghostwriter too good in the Royal Lodge. He is the form horse in the race, and having beaten three of the next four in the market and Task Force screaming to go back to six furlongs, he should be more like a 13/82.63 chance.

He must be backed, and hopefully we can have a turn up in this race with both selections providing good profit.


15:00 Goodwood - Back Urban Sprawl @ 10/111.00 1pt

As usual, a typically strong handicap for this excellent prize and with plenty of runners, I will keep the two selections short and sweet. Urban Sprawl - 10/111.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - has surely been laid out for this.

It was tough to get much encouragement from his seasonal return, but it was surely a means to an end. He should be spot on today and has been granted the plum draw in stall one. He is well-handicapped on past form, the cheek-pieces are back on, and he returns to a faster surface.

Furthermore, he is a course winner, and Billy Loughnane's booking is a positive. He appeals at 8/19.00 or bigger from a featherweight.


15:00 Goodwood - Back Holloway Boy @ 8/19.00 1pt

We haven't seen the best of Holloway Boy - 8/19.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - just yet, and his attitude at Sandown to battle back will hold him in good stead today.

He sits at the top of the weights but could be anything after 11 outings. The key to him could be a fast surface, which saw him a denied him a clear run to finish fifth in the Royal Hunt Cup, fourth in the Jersey Stakes, and a winner of the Chesham Stakes.

He can also boast a narrow course defeat to Marbaan over an inadequate trip. He is open to improvement after just a handful of runs at 1m.


16:10 Goodwood - Back Cicero's Gift @ 11/43.75 2pt

Cicero's Gift--11/43.75 on the Betfair Sportsbook--may be pulled out because of the ground, with his trainer explaining he needs it softer following his injury. Still, if he runs, he must go close. In all honesty, most of these in today's conditions race have nowhere else to go, and he arrives firmly on the upward curve. Confidence can be taken from his trainer, who said he wasn't nearly wound up for Sandown and that form looks strong.

I will keep this short just in case he does pull out. I think he is a potential Group 1 horse who can take advantage of My Prospero's light fitness, and I personally have no ground concerns given his action.

If the selection does pull out of this contest, I will advise backing Sir Busker, an NR for us, earlier in the week. He is very interesting back on turf and returned to Goodwood, where he holds an excellent record. He wouldn't be any match for the current selection but watch this space. I will update you.


17:20 Goodwood - Back Give It To Me OJ @ 10/111.00 1pt

Give It To Me OJ -10/111.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - has surely been ridden with handicaps in mind in three Maiden and Novice starts, and it's probably no coincidence that Gary Moore used the race he won in 2014 for Champagne Piaff's handicap debut in 2021.

This could be a warm race, but I don't expect Blake to run. The rest have shown their hand already, and the selection has been granted a good draw in stall six. He caught the eye under what I felt was restraint at Kempton last time when fourth at 33/134.00, and that race has already started to work out well, with the third scoring off 87 on handicap debut.
He has lots more to offer and looks well worth chancing now that he has switched to this sphere.

Back him at 10/111.00 or bigger.


17:20 Goodwood - Back Blake @ 8.615/2 1pt


It's fascinating that Blake's connections have him re-declared for this and it's likely connections have waited to see if any rain has formed over the Goodwood track with thunderstorms due. At the time of writing, this hasn't transpired and I wrote Friday's column with the view that he would be a non-runner. However, they may take their chances over this longer trip and he is certainly well handicapped so I thought best to leave a note.

Blake bolted up at Sandown last time in a race that clocked an excellent comparative time with the other three races on the card, including the Eclipse. He is firmly on an upward curve, and if the clock is correct, a nine-pound rise won't be enough to stop him.

He has done nothing but improve. He bumped into the subsequent Ribblesdale runner-up in a handicap at Doncaster when attempting to take the scalp of Lava Stream when she was rated 74 - she is now 107, and he put in a good fight.

He took care of a subsequent winner, now rated nine pounds higher, at Sandown in May before an eye-catching run at Epsom behind the very smart Persica (won again since). He was forced wide for much of the race and was in trouble following a slow start. He put that behind him last time with an authoritative display, and he is surely better than a mark in the 80s.
He is untested on a quicker surface, and soft ground benefits him. Still, connections will surely pull him out if it's not correct, and that is the reason for a second selection.

He is too well-treated to pass over.


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DARYL'S P/L

2024 P/L = Next update (monthly) SEPT 1st

2024 P/L = +89.64 ROI 12.73%

BSP P/L = +58.4 ROI 8.29%

2024 P/L Ante-post = +3

DARYL'S P/L HISTORY

2021 P/L = +187pts 12% ROI

2022 P/L = + 137.1pts ROI 8.72% +22.7pts BSP 1.44% ROI

2023 P/L = +112.63pts ROI 8.86% +99.4pts BSP 7.84% ROI

2023 P/L (Incl ante) Total = +146.63 ROI 11.5%

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